President Mike Pence... in 2000

[Mr_Fanboy]

While Mike Pence was elected to United States House of Representatives in 2000 IOTL, he made his first run for Indiana's 2nd congressional district in 1988. He only lost to the incumbent Democrat fairly narrowly, so it's not impossible to imagine that he could've won the seat for want of a nail. From there, one could imagine him becoming a conservative darling and perhaps winning an Indiana gubernatorial election in the nineties, thus setting him up to run for POTUS in 2000.

For the sake of the scenario, let's say that there are few national and international butterflies as a result of the POD until around 2000. Imagine, for a minute, that Pence wins the Republican nomination that year, either because Bush doesn't run for whatever reason or because Pence simply outmaneuvers him on "compassionate", Christian Right-infused conservatism. Further imagine that Pence narrowly defeats Gore in November.

How might Mike Pence govern, both domestically and with respect to foreign affairs, if he's elected in 2000? Of course the big issue would be his response to 9/11 or an equivalent attack and his handling of the War on Terror, but how might his deep social conservatism have affected things like the gay rights movement? What kind of people might he have appointed to his cabinet, or to the courts?

 

[Mr_Fanboy]

Frankly, I thought this topic would get more traction.

Anyway, who might Pence pick as a running mate? Conventional wisdom would suggest picking somebody a bit more moderate from himself outside of the Midwest - maybe he doubles down on the Rust Belt appeal with Tom Ridge?

 

[David T]

Evan Bayh was unbeatable for governor in 1992. At most Pence will have a few years in the House and four years as governor of a non-swing-state (Indiana 1996-2000) in 2000 (although O'Bannon will be hard to beat in 1996). This hardly looks like an impressive base for a presidential candidacy, even if GW Bush doesn't run. There are many far more plausible GOP nominees ranging from John McCain to Elizabeth Dole to John Engler to John Kasich.

 

[TRH]

Frankly, I thought this topic would get more traction.

It's been less than six hours, have a little patience.

In any case, assuming the larger political scene remains the same, he'd have George Bush to contend with in the primaries, and I think Bush would do most of his shtick, of relatively youthful, gentle religiosity, but more convincingly than Pence. So, you might need George to lose to Ann Richards in 1994, and Pence could have an easier time against Jeb.

At that point, what he'd need would be a more experienced running mate, probably. So, maybe Cheney or Rumsfeld, actually. I don't have a high opinion of Pence's political skills, myself, so that honestly seems like a wooden ticket that'd probably lose to Gore, but you never know.

 

[David T]

It's been less than six hours, have a little patience.

In any case, assuming the larger political scene remains the same, he'd have George Bush to contend with in the primaries, and I think Bush would do most of his shtick, of relatively youthful, gentle religiosity, but more convincingly than Pence. So, you might need George to lose to Ann Richards in 1994, and Pence could have an easier time against Jeb.

Jeb will have only two years as governor of Florida. I doubt that he will run even if GW doesn't. (Of course, Jeb could conceivably have won in 1994. But then we'd need three POD's: Pence is more successful, GW doesn't become governor of Texas in 1994--or for some other reason decides not to run for president in 2000; and Jeb wins in 1994. That's a little too many for my taste...)