The 2004 election between Bush and Kerry was extremely close. All Kerry had to do was win Ohio and he would have been President. Supposing that Gore pulls through in 2000, leads the country through 9/11 and the Afghanistan War, he would be facing the same difficult reelection campaign as Dubya. McCain would probably be the GOP nominee. Without the initial popularity boost afforded by Iraq, and facing a more dynamic candidate than the rather wooden Kerry, Gore may very well lose in 2004 by a narrow margin and McCain would be sworn in on 1/20/2005. How would McCain have handled Hurricane Katrina and the 2007-08 economic meltdown? McCain was not only a rabid hawk on Iraq but he advocated for an invasion earlier than Bush, so would we see an intervention there in 2005/06 instead of 2003? Is McCain pretty much certain to be a one term President due to the bad economy come 2008?