Is there any way to get Fmr. Governor of Tennesse Lamar Alexander in the white house? What would he do while there? How would he be remembered?
President Lamar Alexander?
- Thread starter Joseph Weaver
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bguy
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Maybe Bush loses for whatever reason in 1988 and then Alexander (not having a job in the administration) runs for the Senate in 1990. Alexander would probably have a decent chance of winning that race since the South is starting to trend away from the Democrats and it is a mid-term election (which tends to go against the party that is holding the presidency.) Then if Dole runs and loses in 1992 that would give Alexander an excellent shot at being the GOP candidate in 1996, and given the tendency of the American public to want to change which party holds the presidency every eight years, he would also have a decent chance of winning that election.
As for what President Alexander would do, just about any plausible Republican president in the mid 90s is going to be under enormous pressure to support welfare reform and a capital gains tax cut. Other than that we probably get "Compassionate Conservatism" four years earlier with Alexander supporting education reform and a prescription drug bill for seniors. Assuming the strong economy of the late 90s still happens then Alexander gets reelected in 2000 and is probably ultimately remembered as a competent, if not especially flashy, president.
Ford wins in 1976, a Democrat wins in 1980 and 1984, Alexander has his shot in 1988.
There'd be intervention in Afghanistan, but I doubt he'll go into Iraq.
You'd also see major education reform, definitely better than No Child Left Behind.
Would he be better remembered than Bush was in OTL by the time he leaves office?
I would assume though although its not that hard.
The recession is still going to happen though, so Obama/Clinton still probably wins in 2008.
I figured it would but who would his VP be? Powell? Kasich? I certainly don't think it would be Cheney. If it is I could see the two butting heads ultimately leading to President Alexander dropping Cheney from the 04 ticket.
His 1996 campaign was actually nearly-successful. He just barely missed out on beating Dole and Buchanan in New Hampshire. If he won NH and Buchanan came in second, Dole's campaign would instantly be in trouble. IOTL, Alexander faded over the next week because he only placed third, but in reality he may be a more natural fit for SC than Dole was. If Alexander wins NH and Buchanan is close behind in second and Dole is in a more distant third, you could see establishment folks moving to Alexander enough for him to win SC or a close second behind Buchanan (he'd be pulling more from Dole). At that point, Dole may just as well drop out to prevent Buchanan - realizing he's destined never to be the nominee.
That said, it's hard for Alexander to topple Clinton in 96 without serious POD's.
So it actually appears your best chance for PRESIDENT and not simply NOMINEE Lamar Alexander is to have Alexander finish a strong second to Dole in the 96 primaries. For that to happen, he needs to win NH, but then Dole wins SC and Alexander is statistically tied with Buchanan for second. Alexander drags out the primary challenge until Super Tuesday, at which point Dole pulls ahead and he withdraws and endorses him. Dole goes on to lose to Clinton.
Alexander now enters 2000 as a serious contender, but Bush will obviously be the front runner still. If you don't knock Bush out in 1994 by having him lose to Richards, then Lamar Alexander's path here seems to be at the Ames Straw Poll. He'll be polling in second to Bush (basically replacing Elizabeth Dole as the well-known soft support alternative to Bush, but he'd probably be 2-5 points ahead of where Liddy was IOTL). Then, right before the Straw Poll, Bush's DUI comes out. Alexander wins the Straw Poll and Bush's inevitability comes into question. Bush fumbles the response, gets knocked off track, and donors and electeds begin to think the steadier Alexander is a safer bet. Money dries up a bit for Bush and the race continues. Bush wins Iowa, but Alexander comes back and wins NH as voters return to him like they did 4 years earlier. McCain finishes second. Bush in third. McCain calls it quits ahead of SC. Alexander heads there without the baggage of the Confederate flag controversy, handles it deftly, and ekes out a win over Bush. From there, it's Alexander vs. Bush and the momentum is with Lamar. Still a stretch, but likely you're best case scenario.
From there an Alexander/???? ticket goes on to beat Gore/Lieberman.
To get Alexander into the White House, the obvious POD is to nerf the Bush dynasty, and for that losses for both children in 1994, or Dubya decides not even to enter politics in the 1990s, is enough. That leaves the 2000 Republican nomination contest wide open, and the non-administration party historically has had an advantage at the eight year mark. However, I don't think a 00s Alexander administration turns out much differently from what happened with Dubya. Compassionate conservativism domestically, and the tax cuts the GOP always does after Reagan, and on foreign policy where he doesn't have experience, he just does whatever the neocons want.
Really Lamar seems more level-headed than Bush. Also, he doesn't seem like he would ignore the memo nor does it look like he would have the same cabinet as Bush.