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When in the past we have discussed potential Democratic presidential candidates in 1940 in the event FDR decided not to seek a third term (whether because the Second World War did not break out in 1939 or for some other reason) the name of a rather conservative Texas Democrat often comes up--Vice President John Nance Garner. However, James Farley claimed that Garner did not really want the presidency in 1940, that his candidacy was just a protest against FDR getting a third term. Let's just assume that this is true, and that if FDR firmly ruled himself out for 1940, Garner would not run.

In that event, might one see another conservative Texas Democrat run for president--Jesse H. Jones, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_H._Jones the fabulously rich Houston businessman, first appointed to the Reconstruction Finance Corporation by Herbert Hoover (on Garner's recommendation) and then in 1933 made head of the RFC by FDR--a position he occupied for six years?

"In this capacity, Jones became one of the most powerful men in America. He helped prevent the nationwide failure of farms, banks, railroads, and many other businesses. The RFC became the leading financial institution in America and the primary investor in the economy. The agency also facilitated a broadening of Texas industry from agriculture and oil into steel and chemicals. Jones's success in Washington was closely associated with Roosevelt and Garner. Roosevelt realized that his outstanding weakness was his lack of rapport with business. Jones provided a connection as businessmen respected him. Garner and Jones were conservatives, however, and did not always approve of the politics of the New Deal. During Roosevelt's regime, these two were undoubtedly the second and third most influential men in Washington. Jones's control extended to such RFC subsidiaries as the Commodity Credit Corporation, the Electric Home and Farm Authority, the RFC Mortgage Company, the Federal National Mortgage Association, and the Export-Import Bank. Moreover, the RFC helped to finance many public works programs. Jones's tough business acumen made the RFC the most powerful and successful agency in the Roosevelt administration. In 1939 Roosevelt appointed Jones to head the Federal Loan Agency. Jones resigned as head of the RFC, but as Federal Loan Administrator continued overall control of the RFC. He also had general supervision over the Federal Housing Authority and the Home Owners Loan Corporation." https://tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/fjo53

The RFC has sometimes been cited as an example of continuity between the Hoover and FDR administrations, but as Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. notes,

"Under Jones's leadership, the operation enviasged by Hoover and Mills, strictly limited to bailing out financial institutions, had grown into a powerful instrument of state capitalism. The New Deal RFC was virtually a new agency: it grew into essentially the plan Hoover had so indignantly vetoed in the summer of 1932. 'No one in February, 1932, at which time this Corporation was set up,' Jones said in 1935, 'had the faintest idea as to the extent that it would be called upon to assist business.' By January 1, 1934, it had disbursed two-thirds again as much money in its short twenty-three months of existence as the House of Morgan and its syndicates had disbursed in aggregate underwritings from 1919 to 1933. It was by far the largest single investor in the American economy as well as the biggest bank in the country. By 1938, at the end of its first seven years, it had disbursed $10 billion. Of this, nearly $4 bilion went to financial institutions, nearly $1.5 billion to agriculture, and nearly $1 billion each to railroads and self-liquidating public works - and nearly all was eventually paid back." *The Coming of the New Deal, 1933-1935,* pp. 431-432. https://books.google.com/books?id=mj3VmJ38tHIC&pg=PA432

Anyway, suppose FDR decides to retire, and Jones seeks the presidential nomination. (Again, I'm assuming Garner doesn't run.) Presumably, Jones would not be FDR's favorite candidate--FDR is said to have privately referred to his able but arrogant RFC Chairman (and Secretary of Commerce from late 1940 until early 1945) as "Jesus H. Jones"--but it is not clear to me how much power a lame-duck FDR would have in dictating the nominee in 1940. And of course one thing the Jones campaign will not have to worry about is lack of money. (True, his wealth and business support could count against as well as for him--rivals would be sure to note any contributions Jones got from businesses which had been loaned money by the RFC.)

Remember that the 1936 abolition of the two-thirds rule at Democratic national conventions was a double-edged sword: yes, it made it harder for the South to veto a northern liberal, but it also in theory could make it harder for labor or liberal northerners to veto a southern conservative if he got sufficient support from northern and western businessmen and politcal machines. So I wouldn't count Jones out, given that all his potential rivals had their own disadvantages: Wallace was an ex-Republican and was viewed as a "dreamer," Wheeler's isolationism and break with FDR made him controversial, Farley was a Catholic at a time when Al Smith's loss in 1928 was rightly or wrongly largely attributed to his Catholicism, Hull was not in the best of health, etc. Of course there is also the question of whether if nominated he will win in November, which depends on a number of things, including the world situation and who the Republicans nominate...
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