I agree here, in fact it's the most reasonable possible view IMO.
I really think like this. But I wonder, how does Obama become President if Hillary wins in 2008? He has the charisma and ambition to become President eventually. Either he becomes Clinton's VP and wins in 2016, or he stays in the Senate but she loses in 2012. Making him the victor in 2016 against an unpopular Republican.
42. Bill Clinton (1993-2001)
43. Al Gore (2001-2005)
44. John McCain (2005-2009)
45. Hillary Rodham Clinton (2009-2013)
46. Mitt Romney (2013-2017)
47. Barack Obama (Since 2017)
Without Bush and Trump’s questionable victories against relatively poor-performing candidates, it is entirely possible that ‘92-‘16 is almost entirely Democrat dominated, the GOP would be far into the political wilderness (much like the Dems at the turn of the last century) and end up adjusting accordingly.
Obama, who first took his Senate seat in a landslide in ‘04, would have been a two term liberal with serious bipartisan credentials by ‘16. He would probably be a leading face in the Senate by then and would be a frontrunner in 2016. With his strong appeal in the Rust Belt, he’d be a shoe-in.
2020 could be a contentious year but Obama’s weak points came from a compulsive need for bipartisanship and general inexperience in federal politics. If the GOP is weaker after 20-24 of the last 24-28 out of office, then I’d see the potential for a Bill Weld-style liberal/libertarian Republican to pull off a win in 2020 or 2024 (not Weld specifically, as he’s 73 now and would be the oldest president ever in ‘16 or ‘20.
But there is a potential root the be the ‘08 or ‘12 candidate. He could have won the ‘06 GOP nomination for Gov of NY (after having been the Gov of MA) and would crush Spitzer if his insane scandals came out on the campaign trail rather than two years later.
I don't plan on doing a TL with this, but I like where this thread has gone so far. It would be ironic if President HRC passes an Obamacare analog and gets the same liberal criticism Obama received in OTL, only for Obama himself to propose and pass the public option that eluded him in 2010. In the same way, had FDR been elected four years earlier he'd be blamed for the Great Depression instead of getting the credit for fixing it. Ditto for Reagan in 1976.
I could draw up some wikiboxes if we figure out a set of figures to be on the national tickets.