They were silent when Obama did GOP-style healthcare reform so going by that, they wouldn't care about Gore partially privatizing SS.

Social Security is a third rail of US politics, unlike healthcare. That's why Bush got so badly burned even though he had a Republican Congress. Obamacare was meant as a compromise that could be used as a building block for UHC later. That plan died because Obamacare was a political failure that helped the GOP win in 2010, killing any hopes of moving onto UHC. If Gore tried Social Security Privitization it would spark a huge backlash and kill any chance of reelection.
 
They were silent when Obama did GOP-style healthcare reform so going by that, they wouldn't care about Gore partially privatizing SS.

ObamaCare and privatizing SS are distinctly different things though. The ACA is a step towards a national healthcare system; privatizing SS is really a step away from that.
 
going by how important and partisan the media is, SS would only be a third rail to privatize if they objected. They'd only object if the wrong party did it, if Gore were to propose it? Well, I could see them gushing over the new "achievement society".
 
If she waits out 2008, then Obama still wins but Clinton doesn't become SecState in 2009. (That was part of a back room deal that wouldn't happen if HRC didn't run against Obama). Of course, it wouldn't be out of the question that she'd declare a primary challenge in 2011, when his approvals were down and the GOP made the biggest ever gains since 1946. By 2016 she could perhaps run for President only as a Senator and not a former SecState. And she would probably win with out the email scandal. But considering that McCain wouldn't be popular in 2007-08 due to Katrina (yes, I still maintain that it would happen) and the souring economy, it would be madness for her not to run.

Yeah if Katrina happens roughly on schedule and the financial crisis happens roughly on schedule, she's probably going to run. (But again, while Generic Bad Hurricane Template #1 hitting NOLA in any given hurricane season is a perfectly reasonable thing to happen, the explicit weather event Hurricane Katrina making landfall on August 29, 2005 with a wind speed of 125 mph etc. etc. etc. is not, just in case you're working on a TL.)

As you said before, I don't know if Obama's got enough to run on in 2008 without the war. I guess he's got his image, and that might be enough. If he delivers something like his 2004 DNC speech I don't know how that plays, as the Democrats are in power at the time and the divisiveness of the Bush years is probably not as bad under Gore.

So he's weaker, and with the Bill/Al baggage just four years in the past, she's weaker. (This is just for consideration in the primaries, you understand.) I'm thinking you're right and he doesn't run. If McCain looks weak, she probably IS running. If Obama runs...I could see it coming down to similar margins to OTL. If McCain doesn't yet look weak by the time the primaries start (if the financial crisis is delayed by a few months) then we're probably getting president Kerry or president Biden. Or thrill of thrills for me, president Dean! That could be a fun scenario.
 
Even *if* Katrina hits (Which, as Expat has gone over, is not a reliable view with a POD so far out) then there's no reason to believe it would be handled as badly as it was under Bush, anyway. FEMA under James Lee Witt was very well run - presumably there would be a lot more continuity under Gore than there was under Bush. Even if a Republican wins in 2004 (I have doubts about both that happening, and, if it does, that Republican in question being McCain) FEMA will probably be in a better shape in 2005.
 
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Just saw these Matt Yglesias tweets from a couple days ago, and he mostly agrees with Amadeus:

I have been consulting the I Ching and apparently in the real world, John McCain defeated President Al Gore in 2004. McCain signed some modest climate legislation in 2007 and then was defeated in a landslide in 2008 after a massive financial crisis.
Despite the unpopularity in which his administration ended, McCain — the only Republican to win a presidential election since the 1980s — is so widely respected that he will be eulogized by both President Barack Obama and former President Hillary Clinton.
 
(But again, while Generic Bad Hurricane Template #1 hitting NOLA in any given hurricane season is a perfectly reasonable thing to happen, the explicit weather event Hurricane Katrina making landfall on August 29, 2005 with a wind speed of 125 mph etc. etc. etc. is not, just in case you're working on a TL.)

I agree here, in fact it's the most reasonable possible view IMO.

I have been consulting the I Ching and apparently in the real world, John McCain defeated President Al Gore in 2004. McCain signed some modest climate legislation in 2007 and then was defeated in a landslide in 2008 after a massive financial crisis.
Despite the unpopularity in which his administration ended, McCain — the only Republican to win a presidential election since the 1980s — is so widely respected that he will be eulogized by both President Barack Obama and former President Hillary Clinton.

I really think like this. But I wonder, how does Obama become President if Hillary wins in 2008? He has the charisma and ambition to become President eventually. Either he becomes Clinton's VP and wins in 2016, or he stays in the Senate but she loses in 2012. Making him the victor in 2016 against an unpopular Republican.

42. Bill Clinton (1993-2001)
43. Al Gore (2001-2005)

44. John McCain (2005-2009)
45. Hillary Rodham Clinton (2009-2013)
46. Mitt Romney (2013-2017)
47. Barack Obama (Since 2017)
 
I really think like this. But I wonder, how does Obama become President if Hillary wins in 2008? He has the charisma and ambition to become President eventually. Either he becomes Clinton's VP and wins in 2016, or he stays in the Senate but she loses in 2012. Making him the victor in 2016 against an unpopular Republican.

My assumption is he did it as her VP, but then I could be wrong. Certainly in Yglesias' scenario, it's eight years of Hillary. But that doesn't have to be yours!
 
My assumption is he did it as her VP, but then I could be wrong. Certainly in Yglesias' scenario, it's eight years of Hillary. But that doesn't have to be yours!

I don't plan on doing a TL with this, but I like where this thread has gone so far. It would be ironic if President HRC passes an Obamacare analog and gets the same liberal criticism Obama received in OTL, only for Obama himself to propose and pass the public option that eluded him in 2010. In the same way, had FDR been elected four years earlier he'd be blamed for the Great Depression instead of getting the credit for fixing it. Ditto for Reagan in 1976.
 
I agree here, in fact it's the most reasonable possible view IMO.



I really think like this. But I wonder, how does Obama become President if Hillary wins in 2008? He has the charisma and ambition to become President eventually. Either he becomes Clinton's VP and wins in 2016, or he stays in the Senate but she loses in 2012. Making him the victor in 2016 against an unpopular Republican.

42. Bill Clinton (1993-2001)
43. Al Gore (2001-2005)

44. John McCain (2005-2009)
45. Hillary Rodham Clinton (2009-2013)
46. Mitt Romney (2013-2017)
47. Barack Obama (Since 2017)

Without Bush and Trump’s questionable victories against relatively poor-performing candidates, it is entirely possible that ‘92-‘16 is almost entirely Democrat dominated, the GOP would be far into the political wilderness (much like the Dems at the turn of the last century) and end up adjusting accordingly.

Obama, who first took his Senate seat in a landslide in ‘04, would have been a two term liberal with serious bipartisan credentials by ‘16. He would probably be a leading face in the Senate by then and would be a frontrunner in 2016. With his strong appeal in the Rust Belt, he’d be a shoe-in.

2020 could be a contentious year but Obama’s weak points came from a compulsive need for bipartisanship and general inexperience in federal politics. If the GOP is weaker after 20-24 of the last 24-28 out of office, then I’d see the potential for a Bill Weld-style liberal/libertarian Republican to pull off a win in 2020 or 2024 (not Weld specifically, as he’s 73 now and would be the oldest president ever in ‘16 or ‘20.

But there is a potential root the be the ‘08 or ‘12 candidate. He could have won the ‘06 GOP nomination for Gov of NY (after having been the Gov of MA) and would crush Spitzer if his insane scandals came out on the campaign trail rather than two years later.

I don't plan on doing a TL with this, but I like where this thread has gone so far. It would be ironic if President HRC passes an Obamacare analog and gets the same liberal criticism Obama received in OTL, only for Obama himself to propose and pass the public option that eluded him in 2010. In the same way, had FDR been elected four years earlier he'd be blamed for the Great Depression instead of getting the credit for fixing it. Ditto for Reagan in 1976.

I could draw up some wikiboxes if we figure out a set of figures to be on the national tickets.
 
2020 could be a contentious year but Obama’s weak points came from a compulsive need for bipartisanship and general inexperience in federal politics.

IMO he'd get reelected in 2020 if he defeats a Republican in 2016. But if Clinton wins in '08, '12, and VP Obama wins in 2016, then more likely than not he'd lose in 2020. Especially of someone with national appeal like Rubio is nominated.
 
IMO he'd get reelected in 2020 if he defeats a Republican in 2016. But if Clinton wins in '08, '12, and VP Obama wins in 2016, then more likely than not he'd lose in 2020. Especially of someone with national appeal like Rubio is nominated.

I don’t think Obama should be Clinton’s VP, especially if she runs as a liberal Senator from the Northeast.

I think a centrist from a red or swing state would be a good move for ‘08, better than it was in ‘16.

Give me a bit and I can figure out some tickets.
 
I don’t think Obama should be Clinton’s VP, especially if she runs as a liberal Senator from the Northeast.

I think a centrist from a red or swing state would be a good move for ‘08, better than it was in ‘16.

Obama considered Tim Kaine or Tom Vilsack before he picked Biden. It'd be ironic for HRC to pick Kaine in 2008, as she did in OTL 2016. Also, if you make wikiboxes for 2000-2020 please do so on another thread. I don't want this to be moved to chat.
 
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