President Douglas

Here's the POD for my first serious timeline:

1860, Stephen Douglas wins the Presidential nomination of the Democratic Party and wins the Southern states, the border states, California (they went Democratic in the past two elections of their statehood, why can't they go Dem in 1860?) his home state of Illinois, and New Jersey (pumping up his railroad platform) and goes on to narrowly beat Lincoln in November.

Obviously, the first major change is secession is immediately averted. South Carolina is temporarily pleased and does not secede from the Union, nor do any other states follow to form the CSA.

What do you think would happen next? Remember that the balance between Free States and Slave States is still uneven. civil war averted, or just delayed? More importantly, what happens in the long run? Border changes, race relations, etc?
 

Japhy

Banned
He wouldn't have beaten Beckinridge for the southern states. Rather, the question you should be asking, is if he Beat Lincoln, how would he handle the civil war that would follow when he fails to win a single southern state and they seceede. He's not at all popular in the South at this point, and is viewed to be like as bad as they thought Lincoln was on the idea of Slavery.
 
Oops, sorry, I forgot to say that President Douglas was the more important effect of what happened. The actual POD is that Douglas supports the Lecompton Constitution. (For whatever reason, I figured the easiest reason would have been that it supported state's rights since the majority of Kansas settlers would have been southern and pro-slavery.)

His support for Lecompton puts him in line for the south, doesn't split the party with Buchanan and Breckenridge as much, and to win support in the south, grabs Breckenridge as his candidate for Vice President. Breckenridge, of course, sweeps the south and Douglas does a lot better in the north than he does in OTL, grabbing enough states to defeat Lincoln.

Sorry, I realized that was a crucial part to the getting a President Douglas and effecting the dating of the Civil War, so I already wrote that in to the TL.
 
The actual POD is that Douglas supports the Lecompton Constitution. (For whatever reason, I figured the easiest reason would have been that it supported state's rights since the majority of Kansas settlers would have been southern and pro-slavery.)

His support for Lecompton puts him in line for the south, doesn't split the party with Buchanan and Breckenridge as much, and to win support in the south, grabs Breckenridge as his candidate for Vice President.

If Douglas does this, even more Democrats leave the party than in OTL. And the Democrats most definitely will still split over the issues, it just changes which side Douglas ends up on. So if we're wildly optimistic, Douglas pulls all the votes the Breckinridge and Bell got in OTL, plus half of what he got in OTL.

Then Lincoln still wins the election easily, 176 electoral votes to 127.
 
Breckenridge, of course, sweeps the south and Douglas does a lot better in the north than he does in OTL, grabbing enough states to defeat Lincoln.
He's not at all popular in the South at this point, and is viewed to be like as bad as they thought Lincoln was on the idea of Slavery.
Then Lincoln still wins the election easily, 176 electoral votes to 127.
While Lincoln gets all the Bad Mouthing and Press, He is not the [whole] Reason the South Bolted the Union.

In 1856, the Republicans were a small Western Party. It's '56 platform was taken up with Homesteading, and Railroad [Why Lincoln joined the Republicans] issues.

Following the Dred Scott Case - the northern Abolitionists, who has instigated and financed the Case, Turned to the Politicians.
Both Parties promised to do something, during the Campaigns of 1858.
Then in 1859, instead of trying to reverse Dred Scott, both parties compromised in strengthening the Fugitive Slave Act.

Upset at this perceived betrayal, the Abolitionists Joined the small Republican [third] party, giving it a national presence.
They them got the Platform Committee to approve several Abolitionist Planks.
The Abolitionist Groups campaigned hard for the Republican Candidates, most who where members of the Groups.

It was this wave of Abolitionist/Republicans, elected across the North, to all levels of Government Local State and National,
that spooked the South.
The southern Politicians knowing that in 1862, it would only get worse, due to the collapse of the Whigs.

At the top of this Party OTL whe had Lincoln -A Rabid Unionist, and His VP Hamlin -A Rabid Abolitionist.

Changing the President elected in 1860, will not prevent the Walkout in 1861, unless you also change the local and State results.

What you will change is the Results of that Walkout. Non of the other Candidates being as rabid unionist.

No Lincoln means -
A] no reinforcing Fort Sumter. More talking before the blowup, A later start to the ACW.
Both sides more prepared.
Or -B] maybe a earlier blowup at one of the other Federal/State Confrontations.
A earlier start means neither side is prepared.

You also don't have pre inauguration Lincoln sending Federal troops to Annapolis, or ordering the burning of the Norfolk/Hampton Roads Naval facilities. ..[No Burnt Merrimack, to become the Ironclad Virginia]
 
But a compromise between Douglas as a northern President and Breckenridge as a southern Vice President... don't you think that could be compromise enough for the south to stay in the Union? The south sees Breckenridge as their runner up for the Presidency in 1864 or 1868, but in the meantime they could just sit through another Doughface.
 

Japhy

Banned
Vice Presidents were not heirs apparent yet. The vice presidentcy was a crap job. And any or no compramise is going to cause a split.
 

Japhy

Banned
Also, the Republicans ran as an anti-slavery party in 1856, the issue in that election was that the Democrats were the first party, while the Republicans and American (Know-Nothing) party were fighting to be the Second Party. The Republicans won that election, grew in '58, and in '60 grew further. Their growth in 1860, and the splintering allowed the Republicans to win, but the fact that a canidate not on the ballot in any Southern state won is what caused the walkout, because it was final proof that the South had lost political power. There was no revolution in the GOP that turned them suddenly into the Anti-Slavery party in 1860
 
I know that, but if the Democrats win in 1860, their support base will clearly be in the south, so it will look like they still have plenty of political power with a Democratic President in 1860.
 

Japhy

Banned
But any concessions that are given by the Northern Democrat leadership to the south will cause the Northern Democratic base to bolt. You cant have 1860 have a united north-south party unless you have major previous changes. And if a divided Democratic party wins, it will be the northern democrats not listed in the south which will have the same effect on southern leaders that the republican victory did. Again, the question to ask if how does Douglas handle the Secession of the Southern States & the conflict that will occur?
 
If Douglas had done a bit better in the North, I have to say the most likely POD for that is for the Republican to be seen as a radical, he might be President.

If Douglas came 3rd in the Electoral vote but Lincoln did not have an absolute majority then the vote goes to the House, one vote per state. I do not know the numbers in the House Assuming there have not already been seccessions.

By the way as I understand it the Senate would choose a VP from between a Republican and a Southern extremist. Again I do not know for sure but I think the Southern ultra has the inside track.

In this situation seession would so clearly be daft one might hope that the South might not sessede..

If I recall correctly Douglas dies during what would have been his term.

I forsee a great deal of bitterness from the North about the new President.

I forsee a Republican winning the election in 1864 and that the slave owning class would press for a treasonous rebellion 4 years later than in OTL.
 
OK, well here's my premise:

Douglas/Breckenridge win the Presidency/Vice Presidency in 1860. Through 1861, everyone's happy. In 1862 things just heat up like they did a year back, so Douglas decides that he needs more territory to build more states out of to restore the balance between slave and free states. (I've butterflied away his illness for another 10 years.)

Douglas invades Mexico, conquering the entire 1862 borders of it and carves four new states out of it, three slave, one free. From Mexico City to the Yucatan is declared the Commonwealth of Mexico which is basially a free state under American-Mexican Union with one vote in Congress.

Douglas wins reelection in 1864 and then hands over the 1868 election to Robert E. Lee who was the commanding general during the Conquest of Mexico. President Lee is also a Democrat, so the Republican party basically fizzles out into nothing.

That's when American politics get really crazy.
 
Douglas invades Mexico, conquering the entire 1862 borders of it and carves four new states out of it, three slave, one free.
Given that this territory was Free [Mexican Constitution forbid Slavery] the northerners would be outraged at this.
Douglas wins reelection in 1864 and then hands over the 1868 election to Robert E. Lee who was the commanding general during the Conquest of Mexico
Why Lee, Scott was "General of the Army" and Lee was a minor Colonel.
He wasn't even 1st pick for general of the "Army North Virginia"
 
Given that this territory was Free [Mexican Constitution forbid Slavery] the northerners would be outraged at this.

Why Lee, Scott was "General of the Army" and Lee was a minor Colonel.
He wasn't even 1st pick for general of the "Army North Virginia"
Robert Lee wasn't a minor Army officer. Remember he was offered command of the Army of the Potomac. He also commanded the detachment that put down John Brown's Harper's Ferry Raid.
 
OK, well here's my premise:

Douglas/Breckenridge win the Presidency/Vice Presidency in 1860. Through 1861, everyone's happy. In 1862 things just heat up like they did a year back, so Douglas decides that he needs more territory to build more states out of to restore the balance between slave and free states. (I've butterflied away his illness for another 10 years.)

Douglas doesn’t have enough electoral votes to win, even if getting Breckinridge on his ticket doesn’t lose him more votes than it gains. After all, his ticket is selling out the northern democrats. It’s possible, if extremely unlikely Douglas could pull enough votes that the election goes to the House of Representatives, at which point it’s a question of who can do a better job of appealing to the border states and the northern Democrats.

If the Douglas/Breckinridge ticket can pull that off, then why would things heat up in 1862? And Douglas doesn’t need to attack Mexico to have more territory to make states.

OTOH, French intervention in Mexico started in 1862, if it isn’t butterflied away in TTL. Douglas might think a foreign war would be a good way to distract the country from internal tensions. Since it’s in support of the Monroe Doctrine, there’d probably be less opposition to it than there was to the Mexican-American War – unless the US tries to seize Mexican territory, in which case there will be a strong anti-war movement.

Douglas invades Mexico, conquering the entire 1862 borders of it and carves four new states out of it, three slave, one free.

That’s likely going to take more time than Douglas has left in his term of office. The Mexican-American War was won in that amount of time, but it wasn’t an attempt to take and control all of Mexico and you can’t count on Mexico’s 1862 military leaders being as bad as the 1846 leaders. The French did try for everything in OTL, and didn’t fully succeed in the five years they were there.

Douglas wins reelection in 1864 and then hands over the 1868 election to Robert E. Lee who was the commanding general during the Conquest of Mexico. President Lee is also a Democrat, so the Republican party basically fizzles out into nothing.

The goal of Mexican conquest will not unify the Democrats, and adding slave states will have the northern Democrats leaving the party in droves. People may not change horses in midstream, but this will cripple the Democrats and almost guarantee a Republican win in 1868.

Keep in mind that Lee was a Colonel and there were a lot of generals ahead of him. Given time, he’ll have a chance to rise to prominence, though he only got that chance through dumb luck in OTL. Also, Lee’s track record on offense is less than stellar. And the rigors of the Civil War took a toll on Lee’s health in OTL, with another two years of age and the risk of yellow fever; Lee may not survive the war even if it is over by 1868.
 
There are ways to avoid the Civil War, but the Election of 1860 is too late. Neither Lincoln, perhaps the best politician the country has ever seen, nor Douglas, at the time the heir apparent to Henry Clay, were able to tie together a strong northern base with even the most moderate Upper South states. IMO, the best way to prevent the Civil War is to derail Calhounism along the line, or have one of the crises of the 1830's, 1840's, or 1850's come to a quicker and much less violent head.
 
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