President Dennis Hastert--What happens next?

Okay, let's say that sometime in 2006, before the Mark Foley scandal hits the media, George W. Bush has some medical issues come up, requires surgery, and because of a freak accident, ends up dead. Not long after, Dick Cheney has a sudden heart attack and dies before appointing a new Vice President.

If I'm correct, this leaves House Speaker Dennis Hastert as President of the United States, inheriting all of Bush and Cheney's issues as well as bringing so many of his to the table. So how does he deal with Mark Foley, and will his sudden increased prominence bring his own "sex with underage males" scandal to light earlier than OTL? Outside of that, it seems like he'd mostly keep following the Bush-Cheney policies during his term.

Then there's all the lobbying issues and non-sex-related crimes he's been accused and convicted of. Could Hastert top Richard Nixon? Could he end up impeached and sent to prison? I think he'd probably resign like Nixon, but his successor will need to pardon him to avoid Hastert winding up in prison. And after the Nixon pardon scandal, I'm not sure they'd do it again, especially if sex crimes were involved.

And that brings to mind who might his potential vice president be? I don't see a Hastert administration ending well, so said VP pick could end up in office themselves? If Hastert resigns, his VP might end up being the Republican nominee in 2008, but by then the world economy will have imploded and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if the Republican Party wouldn't even nominate him just to end the dealings with Hastert and leftover remnants of the unpopular Bush administration leaving the Republican field open that year.

The end result would be a pretty record defeat for the Republicans. Clinton, Obama, whoever, will easily win the biggest Democratic victory since 1964, and probably help the Democrats out big time in other 2008 elections--seems like a couple races could swing Democrat, and Republican candidates in general will have to wage a different campaign than they did OTL. At that point it'll all depend how their administration goes to see how long the Democrats can ride the momentum. It could be interesting how certain laws end up (healthcare law, for one) looking at the more heavily Democratic Congress.

Thoughts, plausibility issues? I just found myself suddenly interested that a Hastert presidency was rather disturbingly close for someone with so many issues.
 
Depends. If everything slimes its way out of the closet in time for the 2008 election then he gets whipped in the election. If he stands that is.
 
Some news outlet, somewhere, will run a headline proclaiming(only for the ten thousandth time): AMERICA HAS LOST ITS INNOCENCE.
 
Okay, let's say that sometime in 2006, before the Mark Foley scandal hits the media, George W. Bush has some medical issues come up, requires surgery, and because of a freak accident, ends up dead. Not long after, Dick Cheney has a sudden heart attack and dies before appointing a new Vice President.

Damn, not even my "No W" TL has that bad of a presidential mortality rate.:p
 
If you want a worst-case Hastert Presidency, it turns out he was probably at home in Illinois (recovering from kidney surgery) when
THIS almost happened...

(Congressional Record for that day shows he called in sick, Congress was in recess the week before)

So: now he gets to handle the worst disaster in U.S. history. With failing kidneys. And impeachable skeletons in the closet.

(What an irony that he always wanted to cut NASA's budget)
 
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...Then there's all the lobbying issues and non-sex-related crimes he's been accused and convicted of. Could Hastert top Richard Nixon? Could he end up impeached and sent to prison? I think he'd probably resign like Nixon, but his successor will need to pardon him to avoid Hastert winding up in prison. And after the Nixon pardon scandal, I'm not sure they'd do it again, especially if sex crimes were involved...

The lobbying and other activities happened after he left office, so nothing will crop up there; they haven't happened yet. As for the sex crimes, they still would be past the statute of limitations. Hastert isn't going to prison.

But he could still be impeached and removed. I would think that he'd resign first, but if he doesn't, there's nothing to prevent Congress from acting; there's no statute of limitations on impeachment for crimes committed before entering office. Assuming 2006 goes like it did OTL, it will be Democrats sorting this out. Do they impeach and remove or allow him to hang on as an albatross around the Republicans' neck? One thing that might affect things is whether Hastert has a new VP and who that might be. If not, impeachment might start looking like a partisan way to get Pelosi into office w/o a vote. Dems might pass on impeachment also if the VP was someone particularly odious. If anything, Nixon's mistake was in picking the well-liked Ford rather than another SOB nobody wanted to see in the Oval Office.

In any case, if this comes to light, it's one hell of a scandal with a President being found out as a pedophile. It won't make the GOP look good and there will be a scent of hypocrisy around the party after its self-appointed guardian of "family values" and traditional morality. The Foley scandal was bad, but that didn't involve a sitting President.

But, let's say that Hastert manages to hang on through the rest of what was the second Bush term. The allegations against Hastert are out there, but not clearly proven and that creates enough doubt to keep anyone from wanting a 4th President in less than 4 years. It's still enough to keep him from running in 2008, so you have more or less the OTL cast of characters with Hastert in office as the lamest of lame ducks.

One loser is Hillary Clinton, who is connected enough to the scandals of the Clinton era to make people stop and think about her as a candidate. Another loser is Barack Obama. This is not an environment where anyone will take chances on inexperience. John Edwards? He might have second thoughts about running as any possible scandal is going to be pored over by the press. There's a good chance one of the other candidates gets a closer look. That leaves Richardson, Dodd and Biden plus Kucinich if the field doesn't expand. Of the bunch, Biden's the best political talent if his own 1988 plagiarism scandal isn't disqualifying. Still, though, it's a pretty lackluster field, which makes me wonder if someone else tries to get in. I can't think offhand who that might be, but a somewhat liberal candidate who looks good on paper and has a clean background could get traction. The nightmare scenario of an Edwards nomination followed by more scandal is something I think can be ruled out. OTL, the staff had committed to blowing the whistle on him if he started winning.

One thing about all this that may prove very consequential is Hastert's reaction when the financial markets melt down in 2008. Bush, to his credit, set aside ideological purity and acted with the Congress to prevent a total collapse. Would a badly crippled Hastert react similarly and be effective? If not, a Great Depression II could be in the works.
 
You act like losing one president is such a high mortality rate to overcome.

Work on making your plugs make more sense in the future. :p

For reference, "No W" has the 43th inaugurated in 2001 as IOTL...and the 46th president being inaugurated in 2005.
 
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