Interesting take on the ATL '96 Primary season...I think it's pretty accuarate with Powell getting enough delegates to clinch the nomination, with Buchanan relativley close behind him with a considerably strong Southern Coalition...
With the unmasking of Powell's weakness in the South, might the Republican party Elders push for a fusion/dream ticket with Powell and Buchanan? Or might Powell, being the rather independent minded thinker he was goes for another candidate charismatic with Conservatibes such as Dubya/Jebby Bush? I think a Colin Powell/Jeb Bush would ensure him Florida...But the Powell/Buchanan ticket might be a wiser choice to pick up the rest of the Southern States(excluding Arkansas and Tennesee)...Powell may be able to bring in the Northeastern states and pull close states like Kentucky, Nevada, Arizona and hell maybe even Tennesse into his column.
Jeb hasn't held any elective office yet, so he's out. GW Bush might be a contender for a VP slot, but he raises more questions than it might be worth. (Questions about nepotism, for example). Buchanan is not getting on the ticket with Powell. He's a protest vote, not a realistic candidate. I agree with you though about Powell's potential strength in the Northeast and Mid-west.
Derek Jackson said:I think that a serious 3rd or 4th party challenge clearly from the right would emerge. Perot might start pushing cultural conservatism. I am not certain of Perot's view on abortion.
I suspect that Buchanon might get a respectable vote as "The only pro life" candidate had all other candidates supported legal abortion.
Almost all Buchanon votes would come from the Republican pile.
Perot was strongly pro-choice. His liberal social views combined with fiscal discipline was part of his appeal OTL.
Buchanan might decide to run as a thirdy party candidate in 1996, rather than waiting until 2000. If so, he may be a spoiler for Powell, but I think not.
Overall, I agree with EM's assessment that Powell's candidacy makes re-asserts an older electoral dynamic.
Also, even though Powell is pro-choice, he'd be able to differentiate his position from that of NOW and other Democrats. He's also off the chart on family values: the most implausible thing about the scenario IMO is getting Alma Powell onboard with Powell's candidacy. Powell is widely thought not to have run because his wife didn't want him to and the Powell have "one of the strongest marriages in Washington" (from Newsweek, '96).