President Colin Powell

Interesting take on the ATL '96 Primary season...I think it's pretty accuarate with Powell getting enough delegates to clinch the nomination, with Buchanan relativley close behind him with a considerably strong Southern Coalition...

With the unmasking of Powell's weakness in the South, might the Republican party Elders push for a fusion/dream ticket with Powell and Buchanan? Or might Powell, being the rather independent minded thinker he was goes for another candidate charismatic with Conservatibes such as Dubya/Jebby Bush? I think a Colin Powell/Jeb Bush would ensure him Florida...But the Powell/Buchanan ticket might be a wiser choice to pick up the rest of the Southern States(excluding Arkansas and Tennesee)...Powell may be able to bring in the Northeastern states and pull close states like Kentucky, Nevada, Arizona and hell maybe even Tennesse into his column.

Jeb hasn't held any elective office yet, so he's out. GW Bush might be a contender for a VP slot, but he raises more questions than it might be worth. (Questions about nepotism, for example). Buchanan is not getting on the ticket with Powell. He's a protest vote, not a realistic candidate. I agree with you though about Powell's potential strength in the Northeast and Mid-west.

Derek Jackson said:
I think that a serious 3rd or 4th party challenge clearly from the right would emerge. Perot might start pushing cultural conservatism. I am not certain of Perot's view on abortion.

I suspect that Buchanon might get a respectable vote as "The only pro life" candidate had all other candidates supported legal abortion.

Almost all Buchanon votes would come from the Republican pile.

Perot was strongly pro-choice. His liberal social views combined with fiscal discipline was part of his appeal OTL.

Buchanan might decide to run as a thirdy party candidate in 1996, rather than waiting until 2000. If so, he may be a spoiler for Powell, but I think not.

Overall, I agree with EM's assessment that Powell's candidacy makes re-asserts an older electoral dynamic.

Also, even though Powell is pro-choice, he'd be able to differentiate his position from that of NOW and other Democrats. He's also off the chart on family values: the most implausible thing about the scenario IMO is getting Alma Powell onboard with Powell's candidacy. Powell is widely thought not to have run because his wife didn't want him to and the Powell have "one of the strongest marriages in Washington" (from Newsweek, '96).
 
Also, even though Powell is pro-choice, he'd be able to differentiate his position from that of NOW and other Democrats. He's also off the chart on family values: the most implausible thing about the scenario IMO is getting Alma Powell onboard with Powell's candidacy. Powell is widely thought not to have run because his wife didn't want him to and the Powell have "one of the strongest marriages in Washington" (from Newsweek, '96).



I do agree, it seems from this old time article that I found... http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/news/9604/11/alma/index.shtml

That the POD isn't whether Colin Powell doesn't make his annoucement in November in '95 that he wouldn't run, but is all really about getting Alma Powell. Perhaps if the Postal Service was able to route and interecept the Hate Mail or the supporters don't show up to his doorstep? But I do agree that Alma had a big part to do with it...What kinda first lady would she be though, if she supports his candidacy half-heartadly?
 
I do agree, it seems from this old time article that I found... http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/news/9604/11/alma/index.shtml

That the POD isn't whether Colin Powell doesn't make his annoucement in November in '95 that he wouldn't run, but is all really about getting Alma Powell. Perhaps if the Postal Service was able to route and interecept the Hate Mail or the supporters don't show up to his doorstep? But I do agree that Alma had a big part to do with it...What kinda first lady would she be though, if she supports his candidacy half-heartadly?

Well, the POD might be a different personality for Alma: tweak the activism which led her to cooperate with her husband in creating American's Promise so that when she see's the hate mail, it galvinizes her to support a Presidential bid.
 

HueyLong

Banned
Oh, and if you want a good example of race rearing its head in the Republican primaries, just look at John McCain and his illegitimate black child, and the effect upon the South Carolina primary.
 

Ibn Warraq

Banned
I think a lot of people in discussing a potential Colin Powell Presidency have overlooked one major issue that assures that he couldn't possibly win the nomination in 1996 and even if he wins the nomination, he couldn't win the Presidency.

Colin Powell is pro-choice.

Forget all this talk about race. Traditional conservatives and religious conservatives would never allow a pro-choice Republican in 1996 to gain the nomination and if somehow a Colin Powell, a Pete Wilson, or a Bill Weld won the nomination, then someone, most likely Pat Buchanan would stand up and declare "absolutely not, I'm a pro-lifer before I'm a Republican" and would make an independent run at the White House which would destroy the Republican party.

Also, Colin Powell has never been viewed as a race traitor or an Uncle Tom by most blacks. Maybe some activists hated him, but he was always very popular and very respected because he was always clearly an independent conservative, for example aggresively argueing for issues like Affirmative Action.

Now, if you insert a POD where he's pro-life, he could definetly win the nomination. Now as to the question of how he would do with the black vote, remember, he wouldn't need to win it. Ruy Texeira, one of the most respected democratic strategists pointed out if the democrats had won only 80% of black vote in 1992 or 1996, they would have been destroyed. Powell would certainly do better among blacks than either Dole or Bush and would easily win at least 20-30% of the black support if not more.

Also, his VP would probably be Jack Kemp. The two were close friends and their ideologies were nearly identical and Kemp was acceptable to traditional conservatives.
 

Jasen777

Donor
I think a lot of people in discussing a potential Colin Powell Presidency have overlooked one major issue that assures that he couldn't possibly win the nomination in 1996 and even if he wins the nomination, he couldn't win the Presidency.

Colin Powell is pro-choice.

I mentioned that on the third page (I think). I disagree with you though that if he won the Republican nomination (which I don't think he could) he couldn't win the election. It would be tough, as Clinton is a strong candidate, and he would lose some conservative support, but he would have greater than normal appeal to moderates and black than your typical Republican. Clinton would be a heavy favorite imo, but not a lock.
 
Anybody, going to step up and write a TL on this POD, since we've really had alot of discussion of the topic? I would try but Im really not as knowledgable about the modern era of politics(Hey I was a kid when Clinton was in office:D) as I do about earlier time periods.
 
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