President Birch Bayh

"The only person since the Founding Fathers to draft more than one amendment to the United States Constitution," "the father of Title IX," co-author of the Bayh-Dole Act, etc. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birch_Bayh However, as with so many people whose credentials look impressive on paper, it is not that easy to make him President.

The problem is that his only real chance was probably 1976, and his only hope then was to have the party's liberal wing (which I'll define as "everyone to the left of Carter") coalesce behind him. This did not happen; in the New Hampshire primary, he finished third, behind Carter and Udall, while fourth-place Fred Harris also undoubtedly took some votes that might otherwise have gone to Bayh. When he finished a disastrous seventh in the Massachusetts primary, his campaign was over. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1976 If Udall hadn't run, would Bayh have had a chance--perhaps as a Midwesterner he can win the Wisconsin primary which Udall narrowly lost to Carter? (If Udall hadn't run, though, possibly still another liberal would have done so--maybe Frank Church would have started his campaign earlier.) Of course, even if Bayh got the Democratic nomination, it is questionable whether he would win in November. He would no doubt do worse than Carter in the South, and I don't know if he could make up for it in the North and West. (He could make Indiana competitive but was hardly guaranteed to win it.)

One thought: If Bayh had done well in the primaries, even if he hadn't defeated Carter, he might be chosen as Carter's running mate. But unless somehow President Carter meets with an accident or assassination or disease he didn't in OTL, this is not likely to lead to a Birch Bayh presidency--Bayh might get nominated in 1984, but I don't think his chances of actually winning are much better than Mondale's in OTL.

Another possibility: If Ford wins in 1976, Bayh could conceivably run for president again in 1980. If things get really bad during Ford's full term, the GOP brand may be so tarnished by 1980 that nobody, including Reagan, can save it, and any reasonable Democratic candidate, including Bayh, could win in November. But getting the nomination is still the problem. True, Carter's defeat in 1976 may discredit the "Democrats can only win with a southern moderate" line, and make it easier for a liberal to win the nomination. But again there is the problem that Bayh is going to face a lot of liberal competition--including very likely Teddy Kennedy this time.

(Another problem: Running in 1980 would probably mean giving up his Senate seat. AFAIK Indiana didn't have a law allowing someone to run for both Senate and president or vice-president the way Texas did to the benefit of both LBJ and Lloyd Bentsen. And with a Republican governor, Otis R. Bowen, the state is presumably not going to pass any laws for Bayh's benefit.)
 
If the New Democratuc Coalition, which helped McGovern get nominated, had endorsed Bayh as they very nearly did, then Bayh would probably have been the liberal alternative to Carter. Bayh, who worked well with Congress, would probably have a much more productive administration than Carter, maybe even passing a healthcare bill, and possibly getting the ERA passed or an abolition of the Electoral College.

In the White House, though, his wife and close confidante Marvella would probably have died of cancer, which might bar his running for reelection.
 
Bayh was born in 1928, y'know. If he inches that race over Quayle, there's no reason he can't at least be a potential running mate or candidate for the whole of the eighties at least.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Bayh, fresh off destroying Robert Bork, and with an '86 re-election behind him, would by far be the pre-eminent Liberal candidate for 1988. Senator Simon, who in OTL was working off the refusals of the likes of Cuomo and Bumpers, will undoubtedly defer to such a creature.
 
Here is one very unlikely way that Bayh can become President which requires several diversions from OTL:
1. Instead of Mondale, Carter picks Bayh as his running mate.
2. As Reagan's team feared, Carter secures a surprise arms for hostages deal in October 1980 that frees the US captives in Iran. He is reelected in an upset. (Don't think for a second that I'm implicating Reagan in some sort of illegal deal to stall the release so he could win. Even Gary Sick admits there is no concrete evidence one way or the other. What is known is that Reagan's campaign really was afraid of a so-called October Surprise, and the deal that released the hostages on 1/20/81 was Carter's. So take that for what you will).
3. By 1984, Carter takes credit for the economic boom and VP Evan Bayh is elected President in his own right.

So needless to say, all of this is pretty unlikely since Bayh was a poor contender in '76 and we don't know whether or not there was indeed that much of a chance to release the hostages before the 1980 election (as Carter hoped and Reagan dreaded). But if you want a President Bayh, that's one way to do it.
 
Bayh was born in 1928, y'know. If he inches that race over Quayle, there's no reason he can't at least be a potential running mate or candidate for the whole of the eighties at least.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Bayh, fresh off destroying Robert Bork, and with an '86 re-election behind him, would by far be the pre-eminent Liberal candidate for 1988. Senator Simon, who in OTL was working off the refusals of the likes of Cuomo and Bumpers, will undoubtedly defer to such a creature.

The thing is, though, that all Bayh's Senate victories had been narrow; even in as Democratic a year as 1974 he only beat Lugar 50.7-46.4. The odds are really against him in a Republican year like 1980 (when Quayle beat him 53.8-46.2). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections_in_Indiana
 
The thing is, though, that all Bayh's Senate victories had been narrow; even in as Democratic a year as 1974 he only beat Lugar 50.7-46.4. The odds are really against him in a Republican year like 1980 (when Quayle beat him 53.8-46.2). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections_in_Indiana

Oh yeah, there's no room for error there. But if the opponent is not a Lugar, or doesn't have the finance backing of what I assume Quayle had, and they emerge out of a fraught primary, run a bad campaign... just about possible to see a tie favouring the incumbent, as Frank Church in deepestred Idaho nearly ground out. The Gipper won Indiana by nearly twenty points, so Bayh did overperform that. It's very unlikely, but possible.
 
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