Pres. John McCain, 2000 and Iraq

I know it is easy to assume that John McCain is trigger happy and a flaming war monger. I, too, have read in recent years about how many wars McCain would have us in if it were up to him. I get it. But looking at the 2000 John McCain, a wildly different beast than the 2010 (and even 2008) version we see so readily on television today, I wonder if President McCain, elected in 2000, would have been so eager to go into Iraq. Is it possible that McCain - a veteran himself of Vietnam - would so easily have gone to war under false pretenses.

In reading Bush by Jean Edward Smith, I've become amazed at how Bush structured his White House as an echo chamber. His staff knew what he wanted to hear and had the subcabinet execute accordingly. According to Bush and Rumsfeld himself in Known and Unkown, the Secretary of Defense had his own reservations about the conduct of the war.

Would McCain, without this echo chamber, seek out the War in Iraq as flagrantly as George W. Bush? Or would the former war hero understand the costs of war and not invent a cause for one?

I think there are merits to both arguments, and am interested to hear what others have to say.
 
No he wouldn't. Afghanistan, certainly. Iraq? No, that the was the project of W and his coterie of men who'd never served.

If McCain DID go in, for some reason, then he wouldn't attempt to do it on the cheap like Bush did, without adequate prep or resources. The extra cost upfront would be another reason for him not to go.
 
I agree with @Dathi THorfinnsson, Iraq ran only in the Bush Dynasty. John McCain would only invade Iraq if Saddam Hussein committed a genocide or other atrocity there. Even then, the United States would not stay as long as it did OTL. If the Invasion happens on OTL's time, March 20th, 2003, the United States would probably withdraw by mid-2007. Perhaps McCain will intervene in Sudan during the Ethnic Cleansing in Darfur? Or have a more effective response to the Russian Intervention in Georgia in 2008? Not sure, but he was very vocal about these issues in OTL. I'd be worried as to how he'd address North Korea and the Iranian Nuclear Program.
 
I think John McCain would be more inclined to invade Iraq than Gore would have been. But I'm not sure where Iraq would place on McCain's list of priorities partially because I'm not sure who his foreign policy advisers were in 2000. Not knowing who they were and how they saw the world I can only speculate based on what McCain campaigned on and his statements after 9/11. For example I'm not sure if McCain's staff had the same idealistic sense of what could be achieved through Hussein's overthrow as say Paul Wolfowitz did. There will not be a Paul Wolfowitz or a Rumsfeld in a McCain administration which may mean less of a push in the administration to attack Iraq in 2001.

On the other hand in 2001 John McCain believed the false Prague story, thought the anthrax attack may have been connected to Iraq, argued that Iraq was complicit in international terrorism, and claimed that Iraq had an active WMD program.

At the same time in 2001 he was advocating the return of an inspectors rather than outright regime change. He may have seen war as inevitable, but at least in 2001 he was not advocating invasion as the first resort, though he did support increasing American aide for opposition forces in Iraq-whatever that means in context.

I have no doubt that a McCain administration would have viewed Iraq as a threat as early as 2001 and would have developed a foreign policy in reaction to that. This tendency would have been particularly accute after the Anthrax attack. What I'm less sure of is whether planning for the invasion would have begun as early as with Bush, and whether a McCain administration would have had certain traits unique to the Bush administration that ensured the war began when and how the war occurred.

Would McCain have shared the same impatience, the willingness to craft the intelligence around a predetermined policy, disdain for internationalism that were key facets of the Bush administration in the run up to war?

Having fought to reintroduce Inspectors, would McCain have interrupted their work with an invasion, in spite of strong international pressure not to? How does a McCain administration view the U.N.? Would he have had the same preference for unilateral force?

However unlikely this possibility may be, McCain might possibly decide to hold off invading for a few months, at which point war becomes much more difficult to justify.

However even if Inspectors give Iraq a clean bill of health I think a McCain administration would insist that because Iraq has a clear desire for WMD some sort of inspection regime has to remain in place to prevent their development. Not sure how that would play out.

None of this not to say war will be avoided. Clearly Iraq would be a priority. But I'm less certain that McCain would have followed Bush's precise schedule. If a war in Iraq happens the conflict could come at a different time and have a different lead up. I think McCain probably will be inclined to use military force against Iraq. But how events develop between 2001 and 2003 is not something I think is entirely certain however hawkish McCain is.

The major questions here are not whether McCain will view Iraq as a threat or if he will believe force is an appropriate method of addressing that threat. The answer to those questions is yes.

The main questions are how imminent will McCain believe the threat to be and whether he and his advisers share the same ideas about how easy regime change and subsequent reconstruction will be.
 
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