Preliminary attempt to a timeline based on only 9 ratifications of the US Constitution

My attempt to a preliminary timeline based on only 9 of the 13 states (ending in OTL NH ratification, prior to NY's ratification). I figure there are others working on this idea based on a previous discussion thread, and hope this helps spur ideas for them and they can branch and explore possibilities I find uninteresting but others want to see.

So, my POD is that Alexander Hamilton as a young boy, who has gotten the attention of wealthy Caribbean settlers who want to send him to the British East Coast colonies, ends up drowning on his way. Footnote in history of the St Croix how he wrote an amazing account of a hurricane and then as he was shipped to America he dies. AH.com later writes WIs about if he had made it to NY in 1772 and if he'd be a patriot or loyalist and how, if at all, he'd affect the nascent Revolution.

Without Hamilton, the Federal Papers are not written. James Madison, adamant about there having to be a Bill of Rights and without Hamilton's push and co-support, becomes a less effective supporter. Washington, without Hamilton at his right hand during the end of the War and pushing politics and ideas of Federalism, keeps out of the public debate and makes comments that he himself probably would not accept election as the most likely first executive if ratification occurs. Governor Clinton of New York, a fervent anti-Federalist OTL has more influence in NY without Hamilton around and Hamilton's connections with the very wealthy Schuyler family through marriage to General Schuyler's daughter (in fact Aaron Burr ends up courting and marrying her instead, having met her while studying law in Albany). Jefferson ends up lukewarm to the Constitution as well as time drags on and the 9th ratification takes so long and NH puts the Constitution into effect without NY, VA, NC, and RI and the longer it takes the more it looks that NY, a linchpin to the states is not going to ratify; VA effectively becomes the second state to declare a permanent no. NC with the majority of its population centered on the Ablemarle Sound near the VA border and with rivalry and distrust of the Charleston dominated SC, decides to not ratify the Constitution either, but does not go as effective in saying a permanent no as VA and NY do. RI which in OTL never attended the Constitutional Convention and was 13th to ratify in OTL, in this ATL does not ratify either, seeing no need with only 9 states and assumes (incorrectly) that even though the 9 have been reached, that it wont go into effect without VA and NY approval, and RI state legislature and many anti-federalist even put forth the legal argument that the Constitutional Convention and resulting "A Frame of Government" document were illegally convened and while the document had been sent to the Confederation Congress for approval it had declined to approve or oppose; and RI, having not endorsed it to go before the states and therefore the Constitutional Convention was not unanimous, meant it couldn't go before the states for ratification.

June 21, 1788 NH became the 9th state. As per OTL the Confederation Congress setting a date for electors for President to meet and an effective date, the Confederation Congress goes ahead and sets dates expecting at least NY and VA to come to senses prior to effective date.

Now the ATL and the butterflies make a real difference-

Whereas OTL Confederation Congress stops having a quorum after October 1788 and stops meeting 2 days before Constitutional Congress, this does not occur in this ATL. At the 10 October 1788 meeting of Confederation Congress the vote is decided that for the purposes of deciding what is needed for a quorum only the calculations from the number of NY, VA, NC, and RI members would be taken into account, and conversely members from any other states that may attend can be counted towards reaching a quorum. Quorums continue to be met.

Presidential election occurs without NY, VA, NC, or RI (in OTL both NC and RI did not participate because they failed to ratify, NY did not appoint electors in time). Washington, Jay, and Clinton can't run, neither can any other alternate possible candidates that didn't run in OTL like Jefferson or Madison.

Next post will deal with who is elected president and what each of the congresses and individual states do in response to the events of the Constitution moving forward while the Articles remain in effect for 4 states; along with what Vermont and British North America respond and how Kentucky, which is ready to become a state, is going to make a decision.
 
I'm not really sure this could work. How would the federal union even survive or work without the two largest states (NY + VA) ratifying its governing law?
 
I'm not really sure this could work. How would the federal union even survive or work without the two largest states (NY + VA) ratifying its governing law?
IOTL the Presidential election went ahead without NC and RI, they couldn't know that both would later ratify (and they only did because the first Congress under the US Constitution went ahead and sent the Bill of Rights to the states). I don't know that the Federal Union will survive. That's not the intention of this timeline to make anything "work". I took a realistic POD and initial butterflies. Now whatever is the most logical outcomes of those butterflies is how history will unfold, I have no destination in mind.
 
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I'm really excited to read this and see where it goes!

Spitballed, immediate questions:
Do you think such a federal government structure would be reflected in some new state legislatures?
Could you see Western states adopt a "central-ish state vs. county confederation" model?
Could border counties in congressional states try to join confederate states via some local popular vote as against ratification of the Constitution? Or vice versa if a confederate county wants to join a congressional state?
 
Those states that ratified the Constitution, or "A Frame of Government" as it was originally called, go ahead and hold Presidential elections from Dec 1788 to January 1789 per the Constitution and the original instructions of the Confederation Congress. Constitutional Congress meets in Philadelphia and after each house reached a quorum and elected officers and ratified rules they meet in joint session- electoral votes are counted-

Adams- 38
Rutledge- 25
Harrison- 14
Hancock- 14
Milton- 10
Huntington- 8
Lincoln- 3
Armstrong- 2
Telfair- 2

Adams is certified President, Rutledge as Vice President.

Without Hamilton to push for assumption of state debts, and without Madison to be dead set against, and no Jefferson to arrange a "dinner table meeting" leading to a compromise, there is no movement on assumption of debt, creation of tariffs, and encouragement of industry. Permanent location of the capital is fraught with argument, will continue when I have better internet connection.
 
I honestly don't see an alternative to them collecting state debts on the federal level. It'd almost certainly happen or a crisis of states that should go bankrupt not being able to takes place and makes it happen.
 
A permanent location of a capital is decided, at first the House picks a site on the Susquehanna River and the Senate on the Delaware River, both in Pennsylvania. The Delaware River site based on Germantown, Pennsylvania is picked. President Adams is required by Congress to hire a surveyor to plot out a no bigger than 10-square mile area per the instructions of the US Constitution. This is thought that while insulated from Pennsylvania politics by being a separate Federal district not beholden to a state for protection, that the district would be close enough to Philadelphia for the comforts of civilized life which the new capital was assumed to remain the purview of government office buildings; an analogy was made to Westminster being the seat of Parliament in relation to London. An area made by a rectangle 2 miles in width along the Schuylkill to the southwest and 5 miles in length northeast towards the Delaware, encompassing Germantown, is surveyed and plans drawn up for placement of public buildings and new avenues, highways, parks, etc. The capital is officially designated as Germantown, District of Columbia.

The debts from the war are piling up in the northern states and over the objections of Maryland, Delaware, and Georgia which had the smallest debts, the Federal government assumes the debts of the various states, amounting to $14,200,000.00; the $7,300,000 owed collectively by NY, RI, VA, and NC are not assumed, though the Funding Act of 1790 does state that any state that accedes in the future to ratifying the Constitution would have their debt assumed by the Federal govt as well.

In the same period the Congress of the Confederation meets in New York, NY. Philip Pell is elected President of Congress. Whereas there had been trouble reaching quorums and getting people to serve in the Confederation Congress from 1784 until now, the idea of a crisis resulting from the Constitutional Congress meeting and a Constitutional President elected has brought together a fully stocked Congress of able men. The Confederation Congress resolves the following-

1) to declare that the perpetual union of the United State of America is perpetual.
2) The Articles of Confederation are clear in that they may only be altered by approval of Congress and all states. Congress never gave approval, and not all states approved.
3) states that joined the Constitutional government are still obligated to the other states in a "firm league of friendship with each other, for their common defense, the security of their liberties, and their mutual and general welfare, binding themselves to assist each other, against all force offered to, or attacks made upon them, or any of them, on account of religion, sovereignty, trade, or any other pretense whatever."
4) all territories ceded by states to the USA are territories under the Articles of Confederation, territories or parts thereof cannot form states and join the Constitutional governance.
5) Kentucky under the Articles is created as a state per Virginia's earlier acceptance. Delegates to Congress are to be assigned and sent to NY.
6) creates a committee to negotiate with Vermont to join the Confederation, or to be recognized as an independent republic and sign a treaty of mutual recognition and defense
7) resolves to send John Jay of NY and George Washington of VA to London to negotiate removal of British troops from the NW Territory and recognition of only the Confederation
An 8th resolution regarding a committee to negotiate with President Adams is not able to pass, as it would acknowledge the legitimacy of two systems.

RI blocks any attempts at reform or offer of reform to rectify the split between the Constitutional and Confederation systems.
 
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The two congresses are begun to be called the Philadelphia Congress (Constitutional) and the NYC Congress (Confederation)

While the NYC Congress Committee on Vermont Statehood was unsuccessful due to NYS demands on restitution of $30,000 per land grant settler and on territorial disputes, President Adams of the Constitutional USA was able to negotiate personally without Philadelphia Congress interference with Vermont and required no conditions, the bill for statehood sailed smoothly through the Senate thanks to the respect and authority gathered to VP Rutledge (he made his position as President of the Senate almost, but not quite, as strong as the House Speaker as a result). NY and the NYC Congress immediately protest and declare that NYS's authority and grants are recognized and did not recognize the authority of the State of Vermont (as the Vermont Republic was officially known) or that of the statehood under the Constitution.

The next territorial dispute of the late 1780s and early 1790s is that of Presque Island and the Erie Triangle. NYS's border ended officially 20 miles east of Presque Isle, but PA's border did not reach as far north as Presque Isle leaving it out of PA's jurisdiction. CT and MA, both Constitutional states, had legal claims based on their "sea-to-sea" charters. Both give up their claims to the Philadelphia Congress with then rewarded the Triangle to PA as compensation for the loss of land for the District of Columbia centered on Germantown. NYS and the NYC Congress do not recognize the transfer and consider the Triangle an ongoing dispute under Congressional review.

Philadelphia Congress ratifies the previous 1787 Northwest Ordinance under the Articles of Confederation, with minor changes, and claims rightful jurisdiction. Arthur St. Clair the territorial governor appointed under the Articles of Confederation prior to the Constitutional Convention, is a fervent Federalist and recognizes the Philadelphia Congress's authority. NYC Congress removes him from office (on paper) and replaces him with Charles Willing Byrd, who is sent to Marietta with a small contingent of 12 soldiers from NY and VA and are to go overland from VA through Kentucky and to Cincinnatti.

Prior to all this- NC, a Confederation state, had not given up its trans-Appalachian counties and neither had GA, a constitutional state. NC agrees to a new state called Tennessee to be created to bolster Confederation control and forestall any plans for trans-Appalachian NC lands to be recognized by the Philadelphia Congress as a separate state. TN joins RI, NY, VA, KY, and NC as a state represented in the NYC Congress under the Articles of Confederation.

Georgia holds on to their trans-Appalachian lands with politicians hoping to make it rich selling lands in the Yazoo River valley.
 
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