Pre-War PODs that would lead to a CSA victory?

That the south would lose the ACW is pretty much a foregone conclusion. Even with victories at Antietam and Gettysburg the South had a snowballs chance in hell of simply winning the war, let alone surviving in a post-war environment. That being said what are some pre-war PODs that would lead to not only a Confederate victory but also to its post-war survival for a reasonable of time (say, until 1900 at least)? There are some restrictions for the POD however: 1. the US must have at least as much pre-war territory as OTL, 2. the war must be between a rebellious South and a northern US, so no secession of the Northern US, 3. the south must have slavery at least until the 1870s, but other southern laws and institutions can be different. Also try to keep foreign aid to the CSA to a minimum. You can still have it, and if you must give the CSA a lot of foreign aid then do so, but I'd prefer it to be kept at a minimum. Basically what I'm looking for is a victorious, reasonably stable CSA that still looks similar to OTL.
 
One of the main problems was the South's lack of industrialization, could anything be done to get the planter class to diversify?

Why ship cotton north for processing, putting the factories in the South means lower transportation costs and another use for slave labor.
 
I have seen a good suggestion in Niall Ferguson's book "Virtual History" that the best chance would have been in 1850. Simply the Missouri Compromise doesn't happen, Calhoun gets his way, the South secedes early.

The North is less industrialized, the population difference is less pronounced, there are fewer railroads, fewer steamships, and fewer British alternatives to Southern Cotton.

Probably the most decisive .... there isn't anyone on the Northern political scene with the greatness of Lincoln. On the other hand, Winfield Scott is still young and vigorous and Sam Houston is still the man of most influence in Texas (and he was very anti secession).

But those two men are probably not enough to overcome the relative handicaps for the North in this situation.
 
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