Pre-emtive Strike | Israel Vs Egypt

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In 2013 Muslim Brotherhood Leader Muhammed Morsi was elected to the presidency after a year of protests, back tacitly by the army, successfully overthrew the Mubarak dictatorship. Within a year, Morsi was deposed himself in an army back coup and will now face execution pending a military tribunal.

But the question is this:

What if Israel, shocked by the electoral success of Morsi and the hostile Muslim Brotherhood party decides to act immediately after the election and proceed to launch a strike into Egypt to effect regime change. Publicly they say it's to defend Coptic Christians and to root out Hamas camps sheltered by the Brotherhood.

Could this happen? Could Israel succeed? Would the US support? What are the ramifications?
 
Israel committing suicide? They wouldn't be that nuts. Their pre-emptive strikes were always based upon the incontrovertible information that something serious is afoot. Such as concentration of large formations of Egyptian army at the border. Or such. Otherwise, no preemptive strike.
 
Could this happen? Could Israel succeed? Would the US support? What are the ramifications?

It's extremely unlikely. But if they did, the US is stuffed because one of their allies attacked another ally so soon after Ally 2 just had a democratic election - nothing they do will end well except "get the war to stop damn fast" but I see that being a problem with the opposition ("you're stopping our friends attacking Hamas to defend Coptics!").

If Egypt can fight it off, Morsi's now a wartime leader that Israel hates. That's good for him.
 
Israel committing suicide? They wouldn't be that nuts. Their pre-emptive strikes were always based upon the incontrovertible information that something serious is afoot. Such as concentration of large formations of Egyptian army at the border. Or such. Otherwise, no preemptive strike.

Didn't they do something similar in Lebenon? Twice?
 

takerma

Banned
You need Brotherhood to go completely batshit insane. Wholesale slaughter of Christians, weapons sent to Gaza. Military buildup in Sinai. It's not happening
 
Israel committing suicide? They wouldn't be that nuts. Their pre-emptive strikes were always based upon the incontrovertible information that something serious is afoot. Such as concentration of large formations of Egyptian army at the border. Or such. Otherwise, no preemptive strike.

They could just blow the Aswan Dam if all else fails or hold on the Sinai
 
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If they blew the Dam they would be global pariahs in a heartbeat regardless of the justification. Destroying the Aswan High Dam would cause a flood that would sweep away somewhere in the neighborhood of 90% of the population of Egypt. Such an act of wholesale slaughter would leave Israel completely alone and despised in the world.
 
If they blew the Dam they would be global pariahs in a heartbeat regardless of the justification. Destroying the Aswan High Dam would cause a flood that would sweep away somewhere in the neighborhood of 90% of the population of Egypt. Such an act of wholesale slaughter would leave Israel completely alone and despised in the world.

I happen to think deposing Morsi might actually have 0 effect on Israeli diplomatic ties. Most Arab countries already hated Israeli policy at the time (the blockade of gaza). In fact, I think israeli-egyptian military ties might grow stronger considering the hostility the majority of the Egyptian military leaders had towards the Brotherhood.

It could be a diplomatic coup if they could successfully put a friendly army junta in charge Egypt after deposing Morsi, which in turn could help them root out Hamas once and for all.
 
That's not actually a pre-emptive strike. That's a war of choice and aggression.

It's also doomed to be futile. How exactly to you effect or impose regime change? Did Israel manage regime change in 1956? 67? 73? 82?

There are only two ways to impose regime change - one is getting very lucky and managing to drop a bomb on all the key people and all the key second and third bench who will be coming up to ensure continuity.

The other is in physically going in, occupying the country, removing Morsi and imposing a new puppet government and then staying in to keep that puppet government propped up.

Good luck with that.
 
It could be a diplomatic coup if they could successfully put a friendly army junta in charge Egypt after deposing Morsi, which in turn could help them root out Hamas once and for all.

If they put in a new government it will have zero legitimacy and face a major insurgency
 
No chance. For one, the US tolerated/supported the Morsi election. Second, its one thing to stage a pre-emptive strike with limited military aims, its something entirely different to invade a neighbor with the intention of overthrowing its government. It would be a disaster.
 
Honestly if their is any military in the Middle East that could give Israel a run for it's money it would be the Egyptians . Their Air Force is well equipped and capable of defending their airspace against most attacks .
The presence of E-2 Hawkeye aircraft is a major force multiplier in itself . The only gap in their inventory I see is one I am not sure of and that is the Aim-120 , I know their F-16's should be able to carry them but I don't think they have them .

Their army is also very well equipped with good tanks and well trained officers . Honestly the Egyptian military would never be a first choice for Israel to take on , it would be almost ASB for an attempt to occur .

Another point that needs to be understood is that like all the Arab Nations surrounding Israel the Palestinians are both an ally of convenience and a problem they don't want to address . Egypt does not want a Palestinian state and their fore will not invade Israel . Israel does not want a Palestinian state and if it invaded Egypt it would then have to also invade Gaza and the West Bank and in the process lose more then any possible gain . I place this in the ASB territory as the only way it could ever occur is for a collective wave of insanity across the entire middle east . Not that I think any of them are particularly sane .
 
you have to wonder why they would attack Egypt Morsi wasn't really significantly less pro Israeli than his predecessor, was in the good graces of the US, and was more worried about what was happening in Egypt that abroad. Even if he was mildly anti Israeli would it even be worth attacking him since it would only consolidate his position and ensure he was an Enemy. Not to mention Egypt is the only arab state that could go toe to toe with Israeli these days.
 
you have to wonder why they would attack Egypt Morsi wasn't really significantly less pro Israeli than his predecessor, was in the good graces of the US, and was more worried about what was happening in Egypt that abroad. Even if he was mildly anti Israeli would it even be worth attacking him since it would only consolidate his position and ensure he was an Enemy. Not to mention Egypt is the only arab state that could go toe to toe with Israeli these days.

Would the army hierarchy back Morsi though?
 
Would the army hierarchy back Morsi though?

That's a big NOPE. The Army knows that very generous US foreign aid, which is quite nice for the army, would be cut off if they supported such a move. Nevermind that Morsi himself, being in a position of consolidating his domestic position, would never do something that stupid and likely to invite the risk of being removed from office by coup d'etat.
 
Would the army hierarchy back Morsi though?
That's a big NOPE. The Army knows that very generous US foreign aid, which is quite nice for the army, would be cut off if they supported such a move. Nevermind that Morsi himself, being in a position of consolidating his domestic position, would never do something that stupid and likely to invite the risk of being removed from office by coup d'etat.

But In the OP case,
What if Israel, shocked by the electoral success of Morsi and the hostile Muslim Brotherhood party decides to act immediately after the election and proceed to launch a strike into Egypt to effect regime change.
Would the army not have to back Morsi or risk that they are considered Israeli puppets ?
(and the Israeli strikes will have had to kill many officers/men to destroy Egyptian defences ?)
 
This is very implausible. Firstly, with Obama so publicly in Morsi's corner, no Israeli PM would green light such a mission especially since tensions with Washington over the palestinians was running so high. Secondly, while concerned about the muslim brotherhood taking power in Egypt the Israelis would certainly prefer a more frigid cold peace like they had with Mubarak rather than a hot war. Lastly, Netanyahu is known for being cautious when it comes to military adventures. The limitations on the war in Gaza can attest to that.
 
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