Hello all,
So, Lithuania was a powerful realm in its heyday. Mindagaus -- the first Duke and later King of Lithuania -- fought and won many wars against Christian forces, defeating Polish and Crusader enemies and conquering land from the Baltic into Ruthenia.
However, though Mindagaus was a pagan for most of his life who resisted Christian influence, he eventually accepted Catholic baptism and built a cathedral in Vilnius to court Christian support against the Mongols. However, during what would later be called the Northern Crusades, his Christianisation was very unpopular among his subjects, and he was assassinated by a conspiracy of nobles in 1263. Lithuania would remain pagan thenceforth until nearly the 1400s.
Under the reign of Gediminas (r. 1316-1341), Lithuania would become a major power in Eastern Europe, conquering all of Ruthenia and even extending its influence to the Black Sea. Gediminas even conquered Kiev -- the capital and most important city of the Rus', as well as an important seat of the Orthodox Church and a holy city to Christians. And Gediminas was known to be a champion of the Lithuanian old gods; he was willing to tolerate his Christian subjects and engage in trade and diplomacy with Christian realms, but he did not tolerate Christian missionary efforts, and he expelled and executed those who evangelised Christianity or preached against the old gods.
Lithuania would remain under pagan rule until 1387. It was never conquered by the Northern Crusades; indeed, the Lithuanians had a proud legacy of defeating Christian incursions. King Jogalia decided to accept Christian baptism in order to marry Jagwida, Queen of Poland (or King, rather); and thus Poland and Lithuania were united under the Jagiellonian branch of the Gediminid dynasty.

However, what if this union never took place? What would Lithuania look like, if it wasn't Christianised by its own King with the support of his new Polish subjects?

I imagine an enduring pagan Lithuania being something like the Khazar Khanate or the Kievan Rus'. The Khazars and the Rus' (until the reign of Saint Vladimir) adopted pragmatic religious policies, playing Rome, Constantinople, and even Baghdad off each other to preserve their independence. Lithuania could likewise exploit divisions in the Christian and Muslim world, selectively patronising, marginalising, and persecuting different sects as is politic. Indeed, this was Lithuania's policy for most of its history, and it had worked rather well.
Another key factor is the Mongols. The Grand Duchy of Lithuania was powerful in its own right, but it was often aligned with the Golden Horde, paying tribute to the Muslim, Turco-Mongol Khan in exchange for military assistance against the Christians of Poland, Muscovy, the Knights of Livonia, and the Knights Teutonic. If Lithuania and the Tatars had maintained their partnership (with Lithuania controlling the Vistula and the Dnieper, while the Horde controls the Don and the Volga), maybe the Golden Horde would be strengthened as well. Perhaps we'd think of the Baltic and Ruthenia as a pagan buffer-zone between Christian Europe and an Islamic "Russia" (which might come to be called "Tatarstan" or "Tataria" or something).

So, what do you guys think? Cheers, all!
 
Lithuania had to accept a baptism from someone eventually, the constant war against the Teutonic Order was unsustainable, while Lithuania itself needed to integrate into either the Western or the Eastern cultural sphere. By the 1380s, it was reaching the limit of its expansion and desperately needed to reform in order to continue competing against the Order State, Poland, or even Moscow (Lithuania was strikingly similar to Early Medieval, for example, pre-Charlemagne Frankish proto-feudal kingdoms... in the late 14th century). In our timeline, this was done by Vytautas hastily introducing Western nobility hierarchy, intrinsically tied to the Union of Krewo and the grants of noble rights which came with it.

Without a baptism, Lithuania remains without local written word, only using Chancery Slavonic and slipping further into the East Slavic cultural sphere, and without the Union of Krewo, it remains politically isolated. I have not heard anything about the Golden Horde giving Lithuania military support, there is the Tokhtamysh affair, and his son leading a Tatar unit in Grunwald, but those were not send by the Horde, they were exiles.

Side note, but there is an interesting theory (or, at least, I heard my father say there's some speculation in that area) that a significant fraction of Lithuanian nobility in Lithuania proper (i.e. not the Orthodox converts in Ruthenia) were already Catholic by 1385 - theory being that the Christian converts during Mindaugas' period remained, and some others were converted by missionaries in the intervening century. There isn't any written attestation of this being a thing, but it would explain a few things - like why did the baptism of Lithuania cause so little resistance in spite of a hundred year long war against Christians, or why do Lithuanians still use a very archaic form of the Sign of the Cross (they say "In the name of God the Father", rather than just "In the name of the Father") in spite of having been converted only in the 14th century.

One guy tried to implicate that Lithuanians were actually converted by the Arians in the 13th century, but that's a bit 🤔
 
Why can't they develop their own writing just fine without Christianity?
Similar questions can be asked of many other civilizations.

For example, why the hell did the Iranians, in spite of having a writing system, put so little down in ink? As a result, study of pre-conquest histories rely on Roman, Armenian and of course Arabic sources for things resembling written history.
 
You two are missing the point.

Saying "without a baptism, Lithuania remains without the written word" presumes that, for whatever reason, conversion was a necessary precondition to literacy. This is a very strong claim. It is also one with absolutely zero evidence presented.
 
You two are missing the point.

Saying "without a baptism, Lithuania remains without the written word" presumes that, for whatever reason, conversion was a necessary precondition to literacy. This is a very strong claim. It is also one with absolutely zero evidence presented.
They hadn’t developed one of their own, the literati that did exist seemed to have become so as part of their conversion, and most importantly they wouldn’t have survived the foreign onslaught long enough to become literate on their own had things continued as they had before.
 
You two are missing the point.

Saying "without a baptism, Lithuania remains without the written word" presumes that, for whatever reason, conversion was a necessary precondition to literacy. This is a very strong claim. It is also one with absolutely zero evidence presented.
True, and there is evidence to the contrary. To start with, the premise is misleading and/or factually incorrect. While the Grand Duchy was formally pagan, this applied to the Lithuania proper and its population (as shown on the first map below). But, as can be seen from the second map, even by 1341 (before Vitold and decades before Union of Krewo and official Christianization), most of its territory were the lands of a modern Belorussia and Ukraine, former Kievan Rus, where the population was baptized centuries earlier. These territories had an alphabet (Slavonic) and it was used for the official court communications and other needs.

Conversion just pushed Lithuania from being “East-oriented” (marriages between Lithuanian and Russian princely families and numerous other connections) to being “West-oriented” and the Latin alphabet replaced Cyrillic.

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They hadn’t developed one of their own, the literati that did exist seemed to have become so as part of their conversion, and most importantly they wouldn’t have survived the foreign onslaught long enough to become literate on their own had things continued as they had before.
This is highly questionable if one takes into an account expansion of the Duchy prior to its official conversion: by that time the Duchy possessed much more Christian territories (with the written language) and subjects than the pagan ones. So the whole literacy premise is bogus to start with and the same goes for a “pagan state” except for the rulers, some of whom had been baptized, and Lithuania proper which represented only a fraction of the state.

As far as the ability to survive the “onslaught” Lithuania was doing just fine on the Northern front defeating Brothers of the Sword and attempts of the TO to invade it were not successful. As far as the “onslaughting” is going, Lithuania had been mostly on the active rather than receiving side conquering a big part of the former Kievan Rus and even managing to defeat the GH in process and to gain an access to the Black Sea. Algirdas (who was a pagan) occupied Smolensk and Bryansk, made his son a Prince of Pskov and twice besieged Moscow. His victory over the GH secured Kiev (and a big chunk of Ukraine) for Lithuania and after it he invaded the Crimea and looted it. Hardly a convincing victim of a foreign onslaught.

The “problematic area” was Samogitia which was just between the TO in Prussia and its Livonian branch but Witold was seemingly just fine with ceding if to the TO knowing quite well that subduing it was a task close to impossible. So in the practical terms the TO hardly was an existential danger even for the “pagan” Lithuania and in the worst case scenario the territories it could realistically conquer and hold were the least valuable ones in the Duchy.
 
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So I guess what we should be asking is, "What would be necessary to have Lithuania paganize its conquests, rather than be Christianized?"
 
So I guess what we should be asking is, "What would be necessary to have Lithuania paganize its conquests, rather than be Christianized?"
Paganism isn't a religion of conversion like Christianity or Islam, it was a way of life. There wasn't a dogma, or a strict hierarchy of priests that went out to try and bring the "word of the gods" to people who didn't believe in them. Pagan religions were also largely syncretic and tolerant, able to live alongside other faiths without much in the way of conflict, even adopting foreign customs and gods into their own culture.

Ultimately, for a pagan Lithuania to be both "big" and "powerful" you need a POD that slows or stops the spread of Christianity into Eastern Europe, and you need an east-facing cultural exchange with another pagan power (or north - both the Scandinavians and East Slavs would work). Pagan traditions were well-entrenched and not guaranteed to crumble, especially if there's enough of a pagan culture to draw from. So if the East Slavs and Scandinavians are also still practicing pre-Christian paganism, even if Christianity does culturally genocide its way over the Rhine to the Oder, there's less immediate pressure for Lithuania to fold.

At that rate, though, the focus on Lithuana specifically becomes kind of redundant, because it stays pagan by default. It's worth pointing out though that pre-Christian folk traditions have persisted unbroken right up until the modern day in Lithuania and Russia, in some variation or another.
 
Paganism isn't a religion of conversion like Christianity or Islam, it was a way of life. There wasn't a dogma, or a strict hierarchy of priests that went out to try and bring the "word of the gods" to people who didn't believe in them. Pagan religions were also largely syncretic and tolerant, able to live alongside other faiths without much in the way of conflict, even adopting foreign customs and gods into their own culture.
I'm aware--but erosion of Christianity at the hands of non-Abrahamic religions has happened before (hell, it's happening in the present day; yes, I'm aware that there are really big differences between neo-paganism and ye olde paganism). Could state support result in syncreticization to the point where we'd no longer consider formerly Christian Lithuanians to count as Christian, or the abandoning of Christianity over time? Could the belief that performing the right religious rituals was necessary for the community as a whole translate to believing that performing the right rituals was necessary for the state as a whole, and lead to the priestly class creating a dogma (that focuses more on orthopraxy than orthodoxy) and proselytizing based on that?
At that rate, though, the focus on Lithuana specifically becomes kind of redundant, because it stays pagan by default. It's worth pointing out though that pre-Christian folk traditions have persisted unbroken right up until the modern day in Lithuania and Russia, in some variation or another.
Very true.
 
ASB. Orthodox ruthenia isn't going to adopt Lithuanian paganism.
Can we please retire the notion that "ASB" just means "difficult"?

The original meaning of ASB was that something would require literal "alien space bats" to achieve, i.e. the intervention of some magical, fantastical element that couldn't possibly occur in real life. ISOT's, OP self-inserts, alternate geography or climatology such as Green Antarctica, these are ASB topics.
 
Can we please retire the notion that "ASB" just means "difficult"?

The original meaning of ASB was that something would require literal "alien space bats" to achieve, i.e. the intervention of some magical, fantastical element that couldn't possibly occur in real life. ISOT's, OP self-inserts, alternate geography or climatology such as Green Antarctica, these are ASB topics.
I know what ASB means, and it applies here. Converting ruthenia to Lithuanian paganism is outright impossible without some supernatural intervention or a POD far before this thread has been discussing.

We're not discussing a scenario that's merely difficult.
 
I'm aware--but erosion of Christianity at the hands of non-Abrahamic religions has happened before (hell, it's happening in the present day; yes, I'm aware that there are really big differences between neo-paganism and ye olde paganism). Could state support result in syncreticization to the point where we'd no longer consider formerly Christian Lithuanians to count as Christian, or the abandoning of Christianity over time? Could the belief that performing the right religious rituals was necessary for the community as a whole translate to believing that performing the right rituals was necessary for the state as a whole, and lead to the priestly class creating a dogma (that focuses more on orthopraxy than orthodoxy) and proselytizing based on that?
I suppose it's possible that a pagan king could outlaw Christianity in his realm and send his warriors out to burn churches, sacrifice Christians, and otherwise make Christianity extremely unappealing, but in the case of Lithuania that would only invoke the wrath of, well, half their own country and all their neighbours.

It's also an extremely difficult topic to form answers about, because the Church made sure little to no information about the pre-Christian religions actually survived. I myself am a 'neo-pagan', but I freely admit that a lot of modern pagan practices are based on inferrences from vague attestations rather than hard facts. As an example, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that many of the English common people 'converted' to Norse beliefs while under the rule of Norse invaders, but because we don't actually have any evidence for it we can't state it as fact. I'm sure some Orthodox Lithuanians did convert to the pagan beliefs of the core Lithuanian state, but how it happened, and on what scale, and so on and so forth, are basically gigantic blind-spots.

So I could say, yes, it's possible, but I'd be talking out of my ass.
 
I know what ASB means, and it applies here. Converting ruthenia to Lithuanian paganism is outright impossible without some supernatural intervention or a POD far before this thread has been discussing.
No it isn't, because religious conversion requires human action and human choice, not the intervention of fictional interstellar flying mammals. Seeing as you can't possibly know the attitudes of 14th and 15th Orthodox Ruthenians, you aren't qualified to say that it's ASB.

It's certainly unlikely, but it's not ASB.
 
No it isn't, because religious conversion requires human action and human choice, not the intervention of fictional interstellar flying mammals. Seeing as you can't possibly know the attitudes of 14th and 15th Orthodox Ruthenians, you aren't qualified to say that it's ASB.

It's certainly unlikely, but it's not ASB.
Unlikely is a completely unsuitable word for what we're describing. ASB covers absurd scenarios just like this.

The funny thing is I completely agree that ASB gets overused, this just isn't a good example of it.
 
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