Powerful Bulgaria in a Central Powers victory.

BooNZ

Banned
Germany (really Prussia) would have noting to fear after a victorious war other than maybe Austria and the minor German states revolting France would be crushed paying tribute and Russia beaten and in chaos This is a very bright future indeed
You appear to be channeling Ludendorff and focusing exclusively on short term military considerations. What would be Germany's post war export markets? How receptive do you think the British, French and Russian markets will be to German made goods, assuming they can afford still them? What are the chances of Germans getting dragged into the Russian chaos?

What use is Austria now? The Germans allied with Austria as a check on Russia a threat which would be gone
The Germans preference was initially an alliance with both Russia and A-H, but Russian ambitions in relation to the Ottomans and Balkans was not compatible with the continued existence of A-H. ITTL Austria would still represent Germany's strongest and most reliable ally and most significant trading partner.

Look at it this way:

In 1864, Prussia allied with Austria against Denmark. In 1866, Prussia attacks Austria. In 1870, they fight the Franco-Prussian war and absorb their own allies the minor German states. Its a pattern.
A five year "pattern" that had ended over forty years earlier...

What possible reason would the Germans have to prefer Austria over Bulgaria?
1. Population - 1914 population of Bulgaria less than 5 million compared to A-H population of over 50 million.
2. Geography - Germany has to crawl over Austrian territory to get to Bulgaria.
3. Infrastructure - the overall standard of infrastructure within the A-H empire exceeds that available in the minor Balkan states.
4. Industry, education and literacy - again the standards within the A-H empire were generally higher than among the minor Baltic states with the possible exception of Bosnia Herzegovina.
5. Language - the Austrians also spoke German

The German attitude towards Austria was clear from the start when they tried to entice Italy and Romania into the alliance with offers of Austrian territory
I was not aware A-H granted mandate to Germany to negotiate on its behalf so early in the war... Would the Germans be more likely to honor such commitments to Italy than the British and French?

And no, French and British aid to Italy doesn't count as a quarrel. The only reason that was given was because of Austria's alliance with Germany. Austria wanted nothing from britain or France and they wanted nothing from her. Only the alliance system brought them into conflict
You don't think the Anglo-French promises to Italy for chunks of A-H territory was "something"? It might also be argued that Italy ignoring the alliance system brought them into conflict...
 

BooNZ

Banned
Bulgaria would definetly try to take large portions of Romania.
Nope. Germany had declared interests/ plans for Romania, so Bulgaria would be compelled to stand down
The two had a lot of conflict leading up to ww1 so this would just continue. Good chance the Bulgarians would be pretty cruel to the Romanians as well.
Nope. By Balkan standards, the Romanian-Bulgarian relations were relatively benign. Anything outside the Southern Dobruja area would probably be off limits due to the Germans pulling rank, so the Bulgarians would need to be satisfied by gains elsewhere. Elsewhere would probably not be a very nice place to be...
Yeah, so many Central Powers victories focus just on Germany, as though it was just them fighting. Granted, they did most of the work, but they were far from the only players on their side.
Agreed, but in most CP victory scenarios, Germany is the one calling the shots, so the other players get to feed on the crumbs. In the case of Bulgaria, it probably gets the chance to gorge itself on Macedonian-Serbian-Greek territories because neither Germany, nor A-H had conflicting aspirations in that area. However, Bulgarian expansion into either Romania or Albania is likely to face stronger resistance from its [bigger] brothers in arms.
 
Bulgaria would definetly try to take large portions of Romania. The two had a lot of conflict leading up to ww1 so this would just continue. Good chance the Bulgarians would be pretty cruel to the Romanians as well. What would the Ottoman empire do though. They'd definetly lose the arab provinces. I'm not sure if the empire would have it in itself to expand towards the Caspian sea. I could be wrong though, I don't know as much about the Ottomans.​

I admit to being quite weak on Ottoman history, seems they get shorted and then dismissed from history. I know Germany was not excited to see an expanded Ottoman Empire into Russia and many Germans were horrified by the Armenian genocide, but in the real politics of the day those might get reconciled. I am not convinced the Arabs fully depart, it appears they were willing to dump the British and I think it must have been obvious that the British and perhaps worse the French merely changed the flag, Arabs would be ruled from afar. I dabble with the real possibility of an Ottoman-Anglo War in place of the Second World War given how the oil will revitalize the Ottomans and they have a lot to redress with the British.
 
One complication might be how the various Royal families are interconnected, far from being the bound friends that was assumed by marriages, they had their own agendas but with a surviving German monarchy it might ease the post-war environment to reconcile. Germany has both an interest in selling but also buying, it wants both markets and resources, longer term that should both spur development and bind these nations closer, of course that was the great fear of Britain, a Greater Bulgaria that survives will follow a course like Germany, its military prowess and need for defense will bolster industry and spur development, I think Bulgaria has potential to flourish in a way that it never saw. And as a strategic crossroads in the CP it will see the same attention from Germany that places like Spain or Greece saw from the USA during the Cold War, more money, more arms, and so on.

Romania might become more of a rump state. I think Serbia gets trimmed and Greece is reduced. We have seeds of discontent everywhere, Italy will likely return, the Soviets (or Russians) will revisit, and the British and french will fan discord, the Balkans may be quiet but they will not be entirely happy. Bulgaria will likely play policeman more than once.
 
What possible reason would the Germans have to prefer Austria over Bulgaria?

If the Germans took Paris in 1918, would they help Austria against Italy or make peace with Italy for help against the British?

The German attitude towards Austria was clear from the start when they tried to entice Italy and Romania into the alliance with offers of Austrian territory

True. Especially since Germany did take Bulgaria's side over Austria-Hungary's in most (if not all) of their many wartime disputes. The Germans granted southern and northern (aka Romanian) Dobrudja to Bulgaria; they mostly supported Bulgaria in the Austro-Bulgarian clash over Kosovo; they backed Bulgaria's maximalist demands for territory in eastern Serbia against Vienna's aims...
...all in all, Austria-Hungary didn't get much respect from its ally, and it won't be getting much in the future either. Assuming it even survives, which is very unlikely to happen in any long war scenario.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Bulgaria would already be the most powerful country in the Balkans in this scenario; by virtue of doubling in size while all other countries are dismembered (or worse). Their only competitor is A-H, which is more and more likely to fall apart as the war drags on...by 1918, its collapse is almost assured.

As for further expansion, Bulgaria could try to invade and annex central Albania - something it was very keen on during the war.

Bulgaria was certainly the most powerful of the Balkan minors, but in terms of scale, Bulgaria is simply not in the same class as A-H. In a CP victory scenario, A-H military weakness may not have been exposed to the same extent and all its geopolitical rivals are likely in even worse shape. If WW1 goes OTL for the first few years, then Bulgaria is going to be in no better shape than A-H by 1918, since Bulgaria would have been on a war footing since 1912 rather than 1914.

As far as expansion, I could see Bulgaria pushing back defeated Romania, Greece and Serbia to their pre-Balkan wars borders and claiming those former Ottoman territories for itself. Accepting and digesting the territorial gains on offer in Macedonia is more likely than embarking on further conquests.

The Austro-Hungarian government was afraid (terrified) that Bulgaria will take up the mantle of Yugoslavism and start pushing for the unification of the south Slavs under its sceptre. But this does not seem likely; if for no other reason, then because Austria-Hungary won't be around for much longer.

I think 'wary' is a more accurate and less hysterical assessment of A-H perception of Bulgarian strength. You may be confused with the Russian panic regarding the potential Bulgarian control of the Straights during the first Balkan war. I agree it is unlikely the Bulgarians would seek to unify the Southern Slavs, since Bulgaria was less inclined promote a greater Bulgaria mythology (i.e. outside Macedonia, Bulgaria generally did not seek to reclassify different Balkan ethnicities as Bulgar).

True. Especially since Germany did take Bulgaria's side over Austria-Hungary's in most (if not all) of their many wartime disputes. The Germans granted southern and northern (aka Romanian) Dobrudja to Bulgaria; they mostly supported Bulgaria in the Austro-Bulgarian clash over Kosovo; they backed Bulgaria's maximalist demands for territory in eastern Serbia against Vienna's aims...

...all in all, Austria-Hungary didn't get much respect from its ally, and it won't be getting much in the future either. Assuming it even survives, which is very unlikely to happen in any long war scenario.

The German leverage over A-H was largely a result of A-H military weakness during the war. In the case of a CP victory, this weakness ceases to become relevant with the defeat of all A-H's external rivals. Germany would be desperate to retain its only significant ally (i.e. A-H) in a post war world. As previously mentioned, one of the key tools envisaged by the Germans to achieve this was Mittel Europa, including also Bulgaria. The exact post war composition of the A-H empire might be re-examined, but in a CP victory scenario, there are not a lot of obvious alternatives to Austrian and/or Hungarian rule.
 

BooNZ

Banned
If the Central Powers were to win ww1, what could Bulgaria do to ensure it becomes the most powerful country in the Balkans? Would they try to invade other countries? I just want to see what people come up with for a project I'm working on.

A possible way to 'make Bulgaria great again' would be for Bulgaria to declare on Serbia immediately following the signing of the Ottoman–Bulgarian alliance on 19 August 1914. I doubt if Serbia could have coped with a second front, so Bulgaria gets to seize vast tracts of former Serbian/ Ottoman territory for minimal cost/risk. The early and complete removal of Serbia from the war, coupled with early entry of Bulgaria delays Italy's decision to enter the war. With the OTL collapse of the Russian Front in 1915, the Italians decide the honorable thing to do is maintain neutrality. This logic is then reflected in the decision of Romania and Greece to also maintain neutrality.

The above results in improved CP performance on the Eastern front and Russia settles for peace before Germany commits to the OTL USW. With a still neutral USA, Anglo-French representatives initiate peace talks in early 1918.

In this scenario, Bulgaria leverages its position in 1914 to open supply lines to the Ottomans and to maximize the output/production from an enlarged Bulgaria and an occupied Serbia for the CP war effort - effectively rebuilding and war profiteering. In contrast to OTL, Bulgaria's active participation in the war would be limited to a few expeditionary forces, which would serve to maintain Bulgarian combat readiness. When the Russians settle for peace, the Bulgarians invade Greece, claiming most of the formally Ottoman territory. The Germans broker the peaceful return of Southern Dobruja, thereby ensuring the undisrupted supply of Romanian Oil and grain to the CP war effort (ITTL).
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Vienna's opinion would matter little. With France crushed and Russia no longer a threat, the value of Austria as an ally would drop to zero The Germans might prefer a strong Bulgaria as a check on the Hapsburgs and the Ottomans. Since Ger,any didn't want any Balkan territory, I can't see them objecting to anything the Bulgarians demand

A friendly Austria is a huge benefit to Germany in a CP win scenario. Austria provides a secure southern border for Germany. Austria and her army provide a Germanic population base that is roughly the size of Russia. It provides a link to the Ottoman empire. The Royal Navy will still rule the seas. Italy may well be unbeaten.

Greater Bulgaria makes a good link in this chain. You can create the Berlin to Baghdad land transportation routes. Bulgaria wanted and should get southern Serbia if Romania enters the war, then a small disputed chunk of Romania. I have not seen material indicating Bulgaria wanted all of Serbia.

And while many don't agree on this board, i think this alliance is stable. As Russia recovers, you have enough of an enemy to keep the alliance together. And likely the UK interests will align often with Russia. You have a large area with a good resource base. You have logical market area. And each country has enough foreign affairs to keep it happy, even if there is some empire building type tendencies. Germany will have land in the east, and has to keep France down. A-H has an internal empire. Ottomans have a lot of lands they can reclaim. If Bulgaria desire for land has been satisfied by the initial settlement, it is a very stable setup.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The Western powers were propping up Italy and Serbia, which were both rather keen to carve up A-H territory - does that represent a quarrel? I'm not aware of any significant issues between A-H and Bulgaria, so I'm not sure what expenses you may be referring to. I could easily see Bulgaria getting the lions share of territorial gains in the Balkans, with the blessing of A-H (or what's left of it).

Based on my reading, Bulgarian leaders thought more in terms of Greater Bulgaria, instead of unifying the Southern Slavs. i.e. They wanted more Bulgarians, not to create a new pan-Southern-Slav nationality. As long as Bulgaria stays in this mindset, the conflict with A-H is minimal. Both countries want to suppress Serbian nationalism. Bulgarian has few/no Croats.
 
Bulgaria was certainly the most powerful of the Balkan minors, but in terms of scale, Bulgaria is simply not in the same class as A-H. In a CP victory scenario, A-H military weakness may not have been exposed to the same extent and all its geopolitical rivals are likely in even worse shape. If WW1 goes OTL for the first few years, then Bulgaria is going to be in no better shape than A-H by 1918, since Bulgaria would have been on a war footing since 1912 rather than 1914.

Assuming a long or moderately long war similar to OTL's, A-H will still be exposing its military (and political) weaknesses on many occasions. While Bulgaria can be expected to perform as reasonably well as in OTL.

Bulgaria will also be in the class of "not falling apart"; which may not be applicable to A-H as the war drags on.
As far as expansion, I could see Bulgaria pushing back defeated Romania, Greece and Serbia to their pre-Balkan wars borders and claiming those former Ottoman territories for itself. Accepting and digesting the territorial gains on offer in Macedonia is more likely than embarking on further conquests.

Nah; Bulgaria insisted on - and temporarily succeeded in - acquiring Macedonia and the entire eastern half of Serbia, and the whole of Dobrudja from Romania, and Kavalla from Greece...

It other words, the Bulgarian government was carving up its neighbors far beyond their pre-Balkan wars borders. And it showed no interest in limiting its conquests to "digestible" areas.

(It may be worth noting that, on top of those massive annexations, Bulgaria also sought to obtain central Albania, and parts of western Serbia, and Kosovo...as non-essential but welcome bonuses.)
I think 'wary' is a more accurate and less hysterical assessment of A-H perception of Bulgarian strength. You may be confused with the Russian panic regarding the potential Bulgarian control of the Straights during the first Balkan war.

"Terrified" does not seem to be much of an exaggeration. Conrad thought that A-H's sphere of influence will completely crumble if they don't take a firm stand against Bulgaria. His sucessor, Arz, thought much the the same. Another official expressed the belief that Austria-Hungary needs a "buffer state" to protect it from Bulgaria.
I agree it is unlikely the Bulgarians would seek to unify the Southern Slavs, since Bulgaria was less inclined promote a greater Bulgaria mythology (i.e. outside Macedonia, Bulgaria generally did not seek to reclassify different Balkan ethnicities as Bulgar).

That's...very wrong. As noted above, Bulgaria went after Macedonia, and the entire eastern half of Serbia, and the whole of Dobrudja, and Kavalla...and those were not even the maximum claims of the Bulgarian government.
"Greater Bulgaria" is an understatement, if anything. It was more of a "Greatest Bulgaria". Humongously Bloated Bulgaria. Bulgaria On Steroids.

As for enforced and violent "reclassification" of non-Bulgarians - there was plenty of that, too. The Bulgarian government tried to "reclassify" the Serb population of the eastern half of Serbia into Bulgars.


Sofia's commitment to straightforward Bulgarian nationalism instead of multinational projects (like Yugoslavism or Czechoslovakism) does make it an unlikely Piedmont for Southern Slavs. OTOH, there's not much reason why Bulgaria couldn't spread its influence and maintain casual links with some Slavic groups, to use them as a lever of influence against the Dual Monarchy. A bit like how Vienna hoped to use the Muslim population as a lever of influence against Bulgaria.
The German leverage over A-H was largely a result of A-H military weakness during the war. In the case of a CP victory, this weakness ceases to become relevant with the defeat of all A-H's external rivals. Germany would be desperate to retain its only significant ally (i.e. A-H) in a post war world. As previously mentioned, one of the key tools envisaged by the Germans to achieve this was Mittel Europa, including also Bulgaria. The exact post war composition of the A-H empire might be re-examined, but in a CP victory scenario, there are not a lot of obvious alternatives to Austrian and/or Hungarian rule.

Even in the unlikely event that A-H survives, Germany has seen its military and political weakness throughout the war; it will have little respect for A-H and little reason to indulge its pretensions and ambitions (not that it ever respected them too much to begin with). It would be Vienna who's desperate for Germany's affection and assistance; not the other way around.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Based on my reading, Bulgarian leaders thought more in terms of Greater Bulgaria, instead of unifying the Southern Slavs. i.e. They wanted more Bulgarians, not to create a new pan-Southern-Slav nationality. As long as Bulgaria stays in this mindset, the conflict with A-H is minimal. Both countries want to suppress Serbian nationalism. Bulgarian has few/no Croats.
Based on my readings : not a "Greater Bulgaria", only the Bulgaria that was "promised" to them in the Treaty of San Stefano, though perhaps with exandable parts of the Dobruscha and western Thrace.

san-stefano-map.jpg


But I also don't know of any further ... greeds of bulgarian politicians of that era.
So I assume it would be quite satisfied and would have no need for further quarreling.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Based on my readings : not a "Greater Bulgaria", only the Bulgaria that was "promised" to them in the Treaty of San Stefano, though perhaps with exandable parts of the Dobruscha and western Thrace.

View attachment 328818

But I also don't know of any further ... greeds of bulgarian politicians of that era.
So I assume it would be quite satisfied and would have no need for further quarreling.

I viewed Bulgaria, plus the Southern parts of Serbia plus a slice of Romania as Greater Bulgaria. AFAIK, this area had almost all Bulgarians in 1913, so it is greater Bulgaria.
 
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