Power of The Netherlands with a bigger empire?

[Friedrich der Große]

As you all probably noticed, I am really really interested in Dutch history and I am full of ideas for alternate histories about this. Besides, I’m also going to study history on the university. Currently I am working on a United Kingdom of the Netherlands timeline, but I have a new question.

Let’s assume because of some PODs (probably in the 18th century) The Netherlands regains the Cape, Ceylon, Guyana and maybe with an earlier POD even more???

Let’s say The Netherlands in the 19th century still ends up with the OTL territory. Then my question is: what will the status of this Netherlands be? Will they be stronger than OTL, will they be a (middle)great power or will they simply have the same status as OTL?

 

[Friedrich der Große]

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[Godot]

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Please don't self-bump like this, especially after so short a wait. If people are interested or have an answer they'll do so in due time.

 

[rfmcdonald]

Let’s say The Netherlands in the 19th century still ends up with the OTL territory. Then my question is: what will the status of this Netherlands be? Will they be stronger than OTL, will they be a (middle)great power or will they simply have the same status as OTL?

A major problem facing the Netherlands as a potential great power is that it is simply too small relative to the established great powers. If anything, the disparity has diminished over time: Now the Netherlands has a population of 16.5 million versus Germany's 83 and the just under 70 million of France, but back in 1870 (for instance) the Netherlands had a population of under four million versus just over 40 million for Germany and just under 40 million for France. (The Netherlands has had unusually rapid population growth for a northwestern European country.)

The Netherlands needs to be much larger, in territory and in population, to have a chance at competing against great powers. The frontiers of the 1815-1830 united Netherlands are a good start, especially considering how the future Belgium was an industrial powerhouse that had a lot of potential for synergy with the more mercantile (northern) Netherlands.

Failing that, it isn't quite clear to me how giving the Netherlands a larger empire will necessarily make it stronger, as opposed to more overstretched. A Netherlands that has the same home territory as OTL but a larger empire is going to have to handle a broader imperialism without having resources to match. Yes, I acknowledge that a Dutch South Africa could conceivably greatly boost Dutch power if the mineral resources if the interior are taken, but that assumes the Dutch will expand inland. (It also assumes that having South Africa will not complicate Dutch politics.)

 

[Xavier]

This looks strangely familiar, so I'm just going to quote myself in another thread of yours....

Fast forwarding to 1900, The Netherlands (sans Belgium) had an OTL European population of 5.1 million, which is on par with Sweden or Portugal, but only 1/8 of France or the UK and less than 1/10 of Germany. Ceylon (Sri Lanka, ~4 million) only bumps their Asian colonial population by ~1/10, AFAIK without any particular resource bonus. South-Africa is more difficult to guess without British migration, but OTL it had 6 million in 1913 (don't think whites ever were more than 1/10 of the total). More resources there, but the same is true for the Congo Free State, later Belgian Congo, and that certainly didn't turn Belgium in a great power.

IOW, in the absolute best case scenario, they have their OTL colonies, plus Ceylon & South-Africa + Rhodesia (likely with less whites in it than the OTL one) + maybe parts of Ghana (Dutch Gold Coast, the rest was already British) & maybe some other stuff in West Africa nearby, like Côte d'Ivoire. This essentialy makes them a somewhat richer and likely more overstretched version of their OTL selves: a small state hoping to stay out of conflict with the big boys while staying busy in managing a colonial empire.

P.S. All population numbers from an Excel file I found ages ago titled "Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1-2006 AD", by an Angus Maddison, who should be a university professor....somewhere (I think the US).

The Netherlands simply do not have the population for Great Power status once large conscript armies are a thing. And before you go there, adding Belgium (6.7 million in 1900) isn't enough to reach Great Power status either. Adding more colonies won't change anything, as, for understandable reasons, no European power ever dared to use conscription on the non-whites in their colonies.

Assuming the extra colonies provide a net economic gain (likely guaranteed if South-African gold and diamonds are found), the Dutch can afford more, but they will have to spend most of the extra defence budget on the colonial troops and navy ships protecting those supplemental colonies

 

[Friedrich der Große]

This looks strangely familiar, so I'm just going to quote myself in another thread of yours....



The Netherlands simply do not have the population for Great Power status once large conscript armies are a thing. And before you go there, adding Belgium (6.7 million in 1900) isn't enough to reach Great Power status either. Adding more colonies won't change anything, as, for understandable reasons, no European power ever dared to use conscription on the non-whites in their colonies.

Assuming the extra colonies provide a net economic gain (likely guaranteed if South-African gold and diamonds are found), the Dutch can afford more, but they will have to spend most of the extra defence budget on the colonial troops and navy ships protecting those supplemental colonies

If they retain Belgium they would be a middle-great power, right?

 

[rfmcdonald]

If they retain Belgium they would be a middle-great power, right?

A United Netherlands would have a population two-thirds that of Spain, assuming the demographic trajectory of OTL, but would also be much richer than Spain. This is without considering the impact of this broader colonial empire.

It is also worth noting that the demographics of the whole region of the Low Countries will be changed if the region is united in a single state, to say nothing of the impact of this wider empire. The Cape Colony, at least, was in the 18th century one of the wealthiest economies in the world; I can imagine that a Dutch South Africa might get a consistent stream of Dutch immigrants throughout the 19th century.

Mind, these are all the best-case scenarios. If the United Netherlands stays uniting without solving Belgian alienation, that might produce worse outcomes for everyone. A Dutch South Africa, similarly, might meet the same problems as a British South Africa, local colonists resenting foreign involvement. Details matter.

 

[Xavier]

If they retain Belgium they would be a middle-great power, right?

Just middle, at ~30% of the French or British population, and that status would have much more to do with Belgian manpower & industry than with the extra colonies. Too weak to stand up alone against one of the Great Powers, but also powerful enough to tilt the balance in many potential conflicts. Ignoring butterflies for a minute to make an example: The Netherlands being seen as a Prussian ally in 1870 would likely cause Napoleon III to avoid war (or try to at least, 19th Century public opinion was rather hotheaded), while being a French ally instead, Bismarck would likely not take the gamble to incite a war either. Same with the Prussian-Austrian War or any other conflict for the Unification of Germany, which could be a good thing for The Netherlands, as in general I would say that middle power Netherlands still wanting an active role in international politics would rather prefer if Germany didn't unify. All while still having a post-Vienna sized Prussian or Austrian (or similar) power around to help counterbalance France.

A Dutch South Africa, similarly, might meet the same problems as a British South Africa, local colonists resenting foreign involvement.

Unlikely in case of the Dutch, since they aren't foreigners to begin with and the main immigration stream would be further Dutchmen, not Britons. Admittedly that didn't help Britain in 1776, but still...

 

[rfmcdonald]

Just middle, at ~30% of the French or British population, and that status would have much more to do with Belgian manpower & industry than with the extra colonies. Too weak to stand up alone against one of the Great Powers, but also powerful enough to tilt the balance in many potential conflicts. Ignoring butterflies for a minute to make an example: The Netherlands being seen as a Prussian ally in 1870 would likely cause Napoleon III to avoid war (or try to at least, 19th Century public opinion was rather hotheaded), while being a French ally instead, Bismarck would likely not take the gamble to incite a war either. Same with the Prussian-Austrian War or any other conflict for the Unification of Germany, which could be a good thing for The Netherlands, as in general I would say that middle power Netherlands still wanting an active role in international politics would rather prefer if Germany didn't unify. All while still having a post-Vienna sized Prussian or Austrian (or similar) power around to help counterbalance France.

I suspect a Prussian alliance might be more natural for the United Netherlands than a French one, simply because Prussia lacks claims against Dutch territory but France is likely to keep such. (This is especially the case if Wallonia, or Francophone/phile Belgians, are restless.)

Unlikely in case of the Dutch, since they aren't foreigners to begin with and the main immigration stream would be further Dutchmen, not Britons. Admittedly that didn't help Britain in 1776, but still...

My understanding is that the Boer migrations were driven by the resistance of Afrikaansophone pioneers on the frontier to the extension of central power, for instance in banning slavery. I can see the same factors existing in this ATL, though perhaps with less resonance if Dutch rule is seen as more legitimate.

 

[Xavier]

I suspect a Prussian alliance might be more natural for the United Netherlands than a French one, simply because Prussia lacks claims against Dutch territory but France is likely to keep such. (This is especially the case if Wallonia, or Francophone/phile Belgians, are restless.)

Certainly more likely yes, I mostly mentioned Prussia and France to illustrate that a medium power Netherlands could change the balance in many conflicts both ways. As long as the Royal Navy isn't involved on the other side anyway.

My understanding is that the Boer migrations were driven by the resistance of Afrikaansophone pioneers on the frontier to the extension of central power, for instance in banning slavery. I can see the same factors existing in this ATL, though perhaps with less resonance if Dutch rule is seen as more legitimate.

I don't know the full details of the Boer migrations myself, but The Netherlands certainly kept slavery for longer than Britain did, until 1860 in Indonesia and 1863 in the Americas. So 30 years extra if that doesn't change, plus more legitimacy and no English common law should be enough. The VOC wasn't very popular either among the Boers, but petitioning for direct colonial rule from the Netherlands would be a likely step before any real conflict with the VOC.

 

[AsukaEMP]

One colony that hasn't really been mentioned yet that the Dutch could've kept (and expanded), is Malacca. Otl they gave it up along with their Indian settlements in exchange for Bengkulu, some money, and trade rights after the British had established themselves in Singapore. Butterfly the founding of Singapore and the British will probably be willing to recognise Dutch influence in the Malaysian Peninsula south of/with the exception of Penang in exchange for those Indian settlements. Just offer the British a generous deal regarding fees while passing through Dutch ports on their way to China, there'll be more than enough of them for the Dutch to still be raking in money through them. Additionally the Dutch will end up controlling a huge share of the world's tin supply, and in the early 20th century Malaya and Indonesia will be providing over half the world's rubber supply. I'm sure the export fees on those products to every single industrialised nation would not be negligible.

But as others said, if you want to make the Netherlands more powerful and influential you should keep the United Kingdom of the Netherlands together. Belgium would've more than doubled the population, provided the country with a much stronger industry, and allowed the Netherlands to play a more central role on the European political theatre (both literally and figuratively). They're not going to be a great power, but they will be a very influential middle power.​