POTUS Reagan 1977-1981

Hi, I am thinking about writing a brief analysis on the Alternate History Wiki with the POD of Reagan getting the '76 GOP nomination and going on to defeat Carter in the general election. I have some questions about such a scenario.

a)What would a Reagan victory in 1976 look like electorally (are maps possible)?

b)Who would Reagan choose as VP?

c)Who would a Reagan cabinet consist of?

d)How would Reagan fair on domestic and foreign policy issues (Iran Hostage Crisis)?

e)What would 1980 look like?

Sorry to ask so many questions I am just really interested in this time period.:D
 

JoeMulk

Banned
a) Assuming Carter's still running against him my thinking is that Carter still takes the south and Reagen flips midwestern states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win. Especially if Reagen picks Richard Schweiker as his runningmate who he'd already announced.
genusmap.php

Reagen/Schweiker 304
Carter/Mondale 234

B) See above

C) Somebody else can answer that although I don't think that Kissinger would stay on and he'd definitly have a more conservative economic team.

D) I think that Reagen might over react to Iran and send troops in which would lead to a definite backlash especially if he launched a bombing strike that accidently got the hostages killed.

E) Either Ted Kennedy, Gary Heart or Walter Mondale over Reagen in a landslide. Just my guess. Probably Kennedy or Mondale since the Democrats wouldn't be running away from the left ITTL and trickle down economics would be blamed for the dire economic situation of the late 70s and thoroughly discredited.

Pretty sure you can guess where my biases are;)
 
If I can answer a, d and e:

a) A Reagan victory over Carter would be pretty close, since the GOP will have already ruled for eight years. It will have only been Reagan's similar outsider status that would have enabled him to prevail over Carter. Also, Reagan in the race would very likely influence who Carter chose as his running mate.

Here's one possible map:

genusmap.php


Reagan/?: 303 EV
Carter/?: 235 EV

d) Considering how the groundwork for the late 70s malaise had already been laid under Nixon and Ford (and arguably under LBJ, thanks to Vietnam), Reagan wouldn't fare any better than Carter on domestic issues, and quite possible worse, since chances are he wouldn't nominate Paul Volcker (who is credited for ending the inflation of the late 70s) as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, all the blame that Carter got OTL for the lousy economy would be transferred to Reagan. As for foreign policy... there wouldn't be the emphasis about America's moral responsibility and duties as there was under Carter. However, Reagan wouldn't be able to save the Shah of Iran either. Indeed, he might make it worse. A war with Iran would not go down well with the voters, considering that Vietnam would still be a recent memory.

e) Reagan would lose. Just the fact that the GOP will have held the White House for 12 years straight would be a handicap. Like with Bush Sr. in 1992. Combined with the economic problems (which wouldn't go anywhere, not in four years), and a possible clusterfuck in Iran (and elsewhere, like Nicaragua, for example), and you're looking at a Democrat year in 1980. President Gary Hart, perhaps? There actually was a chapter in an AH book about this, though in that chapter it was Ford, not Reagan, who defeated Carter.
 

JoeMulk

Banned
Agreed, although I wish they could have continued some of the scenarios farther. It would have been nice to see how Hart's disgraceful conduct would effect his presidency.

Yeah, or the long term butterflies coming from the RFK presidency.
 
Agreed, although I wish they could have continued some of the scenarios farther. It would have been nice to see how Hart's disgraceful conduct would effect his presidency.

gary hart was not smooth enough to survive something like that; he would have to resign; the guy was an implosion waiting to happen; think newt
 
I disagree with the map. OTL Ford did not campaign much in the South.Reagan would have and won some Southrn states.I don't think he woud have done as well in the North.
 
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Reagan would have had Democrats controling both houses of congress. That woud have limited what he could have done as president.
 
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