Hello everyone, I know its been a few years; but I have been tossing this idea around in my head for a few days. As I wanted to see what y'all thought about this premise. Anywhoo, General Powell often cited general reluctance by he and his wife from seeking the presidency in '96 and 2000 in OTL. But yet, he didn't officially come out as Republican till circa 1995 when Powell started campaigning for GOP Candidates. It always seemed to me that a lot of the reluctance to run for the Presidency would have been abated if he would have declared himself a Democrat. This is especially so given the lurch to the right by the GOP in the 90's and conflating that with Powell's views on social issues & economics. I know Powell has often cited the fact that he did his best work under Republican President's Regan & Bush; along with a general sense of loyalty to them as a reason he stuck with the GOP during from the 90's till now. So I have come up with three different scenarios, that might have given us a more plausible path to a President Powell (D-NY).
1: A Dukakis Wins TL: Let's say that Dukakis is able to win a narrow victory over George H.W. Bush in 1988. Might the Duke keep Powell on as National Security Advisor and later Joint Chief of Staff? If so, if things go relatively the same as in OTL regarding the Gulf War might Powell have a shot at the Democratic nomination in '96(Dukakis is a one-term) or 2000 (if he wins a second term)?
2. Bill Clinton picks Powell as VP in '92: Let's say the draft issue/lack of military experience weakens Clinton's candidacy much more in TTL. So much so that Bill barely scrapes by with the nomination, and needs a strong VP candidate to shore up that segment with the voters. If Powell is persuaded to take the nomination(there might have to be a public break between Bush and Powell on policy before this can happen) and Clinton still wins, would 8 years as Vice President be enough to convince him to run in 2000?
3. OTL up till '95: Let's say that Democrats do a better job at courting Powell in '95, allowing him the space to come out as a Democrat in the run up to Clinton's re-election. Would it be as smooth a fit as I am anticipating or might liberal democrats associate him to much with the Reagan-Bush era to squash any shot at the nomination in 2000? How might Powell far in a slug fight with Al Gore for the Democratic Nomination in 2000(Gore was largely defeated by Jesse Jackson's support amongst liberals and African Americans in '88, might that happen again?)? If Powell wins the nomination how might he fair against Dubya in the General?
I would love to know your thoughts...