Potential population Germany: 1914 borders + Lux., Austria-Tirol, & B-M

[kreepysam]

In a timeline where Germany united under Prussian leadership 1848, assuming its monarch takes the initiative, into a federal state similar to Wilhelmine Germany with its OTL borders + the Germanic areas of the AH empire, and barring any major demographic catastrophes or disruptions, what is Germany's potential population say, 200 years later, assuming OTL levels of prosperity (i.e. Germany isn't a low income, overcrowded country like Bangladesh or something)?

What about after a short war with Russia that results in the annexation of the Baltic States? By my calculations Germany today + Czech republic, Austria and the formerly-German territories of present day Poland amount to about 112 million. Adding in the Baltics is about 6 or so million more. So assuming no WWI or WWII, but also that fertility decline following industrialisation and rising living standards will be broadly similar to the general trend observed throughout most of the OTL developed and developing world, where would it realistically end up?

 

[Byz]

A lot, assuming no devastating world wars. Could be as much as 200 million on the high end, but assuming no war even 150 or 160 million isn't unreasonable.

Both world wars really disrupted population growth, especially in Germany.

 

[Skallagrim]

Indeed, both wars had major demographic effects. On the other hand: while the baby boom started almost ten years later in Germany than it did in several other countries, it did happen. Without the major wars, things just go on 'as usual'. No negative effects on population growth, but neither does a post-war boom occur. This should be factored into things. Of course, the negative effects were far more substantial in the end.

All in all, I'd go with a conservative guess of about 140 million people living in this ATL 'super-Germany' without the Baltics, and about 150 million with the Baltics. (I'm also taking into account the fact that the USSR in OTL had negative effects on the Baltics in general, so I expext the population there to be higher in this ATL. 10 million instead of 6 million seems plausible.)

 

[Nivek]

Without world wars is too difficult to calculated but i imagine like 150 -160 millons easily witb wars, add 10 if they got the baltics, without we could be reaching 200 easily

 

[Arkenfolm]

How much immigration would Germany be getting TTL? As the population ages, there will be a need for younger workers, many of whom I think would still be Turkish given the links between Germany and Turkey (be it Ottoman TTL or otherwise).

 

[Kvasir]

Emigration is also a factor too to consider. At least initially this Germany will be very conservative.

 

[DracoLazarus]

I will point out a 1848 Germany would have to take Alsace-Lorraine from France for Germany to have the frontiers you described. With the population that much larger than France's, the diplomatic balance might actually turn against Germany on such a war, especially if Germany is the aggressor.

 

[Nivek]

I will point out a 1848 Germany would have to take Alsace-Lorraine from France for Germany to have the frontiers you described. With the population that much larger than France's, the diplomatic balance might actually turn against Germany on such a war, especially if Germany is the aggressor.

Depend a lot Will france do something stupid? Maybe as luxemburg crisis and Franco prussia war proved it, heck They might try it in 1848 again grossdeutchland and lose.

 

[DracoLazarus]

Depend a lot Will france do something stupid? Maybe as luxemburg crisis and Franco prussia war proved it, heck They might try it in 1848 again grossdeutchland and lose.

It depends. I don't think Grossdeutschland would have access to a Bismark-level machiavellian chancellor, and its army might take time before being as effective as the French one.

 

[Nivek]

It depends. I don't think Grossdeutschland would have access to a Bismark-level machiavellian chancellor, and its army might take time before being as effective as the French one.

Yeah but still depend a lot of factors. Even them we should reduce like 6 to 8 millons without eltass lothringen, but is marginal the projections. This germany Will be massive in every sense of word

 

[Achaemenid Rome]

If 19th century Greater Germany existed it would be impossible to prevent the world wars. From British concerns over balance of power, to Balkan conflicts, to French revanchism over Alsace-Lorraine, to food shortages, to Russian ambitions in the west, to German ambitions in the east and overseas, to the rise of communism. There are too many powder kegs in the 19th and early 20th century waiting to explode.

 

[Nivek]

French revanchism over Alsace-Lorraine

That one might not happen as the window oportunity Will not exist unless we get bismarck and Napoleón III and otl circus happens.

 

[JackLumber]

If 19th century Greater Germany existed it would be impossible to prevent the world wars. From British concerns over balance of power, to Balkan conflicts, to French revanchism over Alsace-Lorraine, to food shortages, to Russian ambitions in the west, to German ambitions in the east and overseas, to the rise of communism. There are too many powder kegs in the 19th and early 20th century waiting to explode.

Wars are likely but world wars are by no means guaranteed, all this Germany has to do is isolate Russia and then defeat her in a war and peel off buffer states, from there she can form a reasonably strong eastern and central European anti russian block to guard her in the east.
From there she has the very doable task of cowing the french. Britain will make this more difficult but certainly not impossible.

 

[machine3589]

How much immigration would Germany be getting TTL? As the population ages, there will be a need for younger workers, many of whom I think would still be Turkish given the links between Germany and Turkey (be it Ottoman TTL or otherwise).

Assuming no Communist block, it is far more likely that Poles, Balctics, Ukrainians and other assorted Eastern and Southeastern Europeans would make the bulk of these immigrants rather than Turks. They`re simply closer.

Even so, projecting 20th century immigration trends based on a Greater Germany formed in 1848. requires a LOT more info, especially concerning Great Wars.

 

[Achaemenid Rome]

Wars are likely but world wars are by no means guaranteed, all this Germany has to do is isolate Russia and then defeat her in a war and peel off buffer states, from there she can form a reasonably strong eastern and central European anti russian block to guard her in the east.
From there she has the very doable task of cowing the french. Britain will make this more difficult but certainly not impossible.

Defeating Russia and peeling off buffer states is one of the most difficult things in history, attempted twice by the two largest armies up to that point and failed both times.

Not to mention, a German-Russian war, where Germany plans to take the Baltic, is a great pretense for Britain and France to intervene on the side of Russia.

 

[machine3589]

In a timeline where Germany united under Prussian leadership 1848, assuming its monarch takes the initiative, into a federal state similar to Wilhelmine Germany with its OTL borders + the Germanic areas of the AH empire, and barring any major demographic catastrophes or disruptions, what is Germany's potential population say, 200 years later, assuming OTL levels of prosperity (i.e. Germany isn't a low income, overcrowded country like Bangladesh or something)?

What about after a short war with Russia that results in the annexation of the Baltic States? By my calculations Germany today + Czech republic, Austria and the formerly-German territories of present day Poland amount to about 112 million. Adding in the Baltics is about 6 or so million more. So assuming no WWI or WWII, but also that fertility decline following industrialisation and rising living standards will be broadly similar to the general trend observed throughout most of the OTL developed and developing world, where would it realistically end up?

I`m basing this on a discussion in post-1900 thread about a CP-victory scenario Germany. I can`t link to it but I have a clear memory of it happening.

So, assuming these borders:

Low Estimate: ~120 million

Conservative Estimate: 140-150 million

High estimate: 170+ million

 

[JackLumber]

Defeating Russia and peeling off buffer states is one of the most difficult things in history, attempted twice by the two largest armies up to that point and failed both times.

Not to mention, a German-Russian war, where Germany plans to take the Baltic, is a great pretense for Britain and France to intervene on the side of Russia.

What you talking about? In ww1 Germany did defeat Russia and did peel off buffer states.

Did you read my post at all? Did you miss the part where it specifically mentioned isolating Russia? It's not hard to get the British to leave the Russians to their fate, they have no great love for them, under the right circumstances Britain could be a German ally in a war against Russia or at least a friendly neutral.
France is a little more difficult but strike while they are busy or unable and they won't enter the war, in the absence of anything so convenient they can find themselves some allies before hand.
All a German lead alliance needs to win is to have the British stay out.

 

[Achaemenid Rome]

What you talking about? In ww1 Germany did defeat Russia and did peel off buffer states.

I see, this must be why central and eastern Europe is dominated by the Kaiser's Mittel-Europa union to this day.

Technically the German Empire defeated Russia but they ultimately didn't achieve their aims, didn't go half as far as they had planned on going, and failed to establish lasting puppet states due to the collapse of their government.

Did you read my post at all? Did you miss the part where it specifically mentioned isolating Russia? It's not hard to get the British to leave the Russians to their fate, they have no great love for them, under the right circumstances Britain could be a German ally in a war against Russia or at least a friendly neutral.
France is a little more difficult but strike while they are busy or unable and they won't enter the war, in the absence of anything so convenient they can find themselves some allies before hand.
All a German lead alliance needs to win is to have the British stay out.

Germany was far more threatening than Russia--a mega-Germany consisting of Austria and the Sudetenland is even more threatening. I can't imagine the British ever siding with the Germans or declaring neutrality if that Germany declares war on Russia.

France knows that if the Germans decisively defeat Russia, then they are screwed and balance of power goes out the window. So the French will certainly intervene in a German-Russian war as well.

 

[chrnno]

I see, this must be why central and eastern Europe is dominated by the Kaiser's Mittel-Europa union to this day.

Technically the German Empire defeated Russia but they ultimately didn't achieve their aims, didn't go half as far as they had planned on going, and failed to establish lasting puppet states due to the collapse of their government.

In the spirit of your first paragraph: It might be hard to believe this but there are powers in the world beyond Germany and Russia.

Germany unquestionably defeated Russia then lost to those other powers nullifying all acquired and possible gains in that victory from then on.

 

[JackLumber]

I see, this must be why central and eastern Europe is dominated by the Kaiser's Mittel-Europa union to this day.

Technically the German Empire defeated Russia but they ultimately didn't achieve their aims, didn't go half as far as they had planned on going, and failed to establish lasting puppet states due to the collapse of their government.


Germany was far more threatening than Russia--a mega-Germany consisting of Austria and the Sudetenland is even more threatening. I can't imagine the British ever siding with the Germans or declaring neutrality if that Germany declares war on Russia.

France knows that if the Germans decisively defeat Russia, then they are screwed and balance of power goes out the window. So the French will certainly intervene in a German-Russian war as well.

Germans don't rule over a Mittel-Europa today because they failed to beat the western allies that has nothing to do with any kind of Russian ability.
They didn't achieve their aims because they lost to France Britain and the US not because of russia and they actually went much further into russia than they originally planned.

A skilled german diplomat and a ham fisted russian diplomat could easily change the British position on the matter and as I said the key to wait till the french are tied up or to simply gather allies and beat them aswell.
Germany only needs a neutral Britain to win.