Potential of a Japanese Vegetarian?

Quite a dark thought, but...

Japan had a very active bioweapons program in the '30s and '40s, and the horrifying Unit 731 experimented with anthrax. Is it possible that by 1940 or so, Japan could have similar capabilities as the UK in terms of being able to launch their own version of Operation Vegetarian? Given how willing Imperial Japan was to deploy biological weapons against the Chinese, I'd imagine that weaponized anthrax would have been used if it was available. Japan didn't have the same heavy bombing capabilities as the UK though, so would they have been too constrained in their delivery to have much of an impact? However brutal the effects are, it obviously won't win the war for Japan, though I could imagine the Japanese deploying anthrax as a last-ditch effort to deny the US use of certain islands.

Would use of weaponized anthrax in China justify chemical retaliation from the rest of the Allies? Presumably if anthrax is used in any other theater, the gloves come off completely.
 

CalBear

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It very much depends on when the Japanese decide to commit. Vegetarian was meant to be a "last great act of defiance" and/or retaliation for violating the Conventions on Chemical Weapons. If the Japanese use that same criteria, usage doesn't start until after Saipan (the Japanese REALLY wanted to retain Saipan as a permanent part of the Empire, hence the 22K+ civilian colonists). From that point forward it becomes mostly a matter of just how bloody minded they choose to becomes (and considering the rest of their actions in the last year of the war the answer is damned bloody minded). It is very unlikely that any action would take place prior to the last year of the war, keeping in mind that the goal was to win fast and cut a deal that secured their conquests, and not get into a slugfest and war of attrition.

Revenge/defiance makes contamination of at least portions of the Philippines likely, same for parts of the DEI and Indochina, especially the agricultural areas and certain urban areas like Manila.

Area denial is sort of interesting. Iwo Jima seems to be a given. Very important bit of sulfur scented hell for the U.S. but almost uninhabited. Hell, if I was the Japanese I would have my Swiss Ambassador get word to the Americans via the Swiss government telling them exactly what had been done, include some samples. After that, it becomes a matter of just how much of Japanese territory you are willing to poison, for centuries.

Another interesting possible use is against Tinian. Japanese aircraft, including the G4M & Ki-49 could make a one way trip to Tinian. Hitting the B-29 bases with suicide bombing attacks could be fairly effective, assuming reasonable methods of dispersal of the agent (although it is important to keep in mind that there IS a human Anthrax vaccine in use in the USSR, one that was in use by 1940, whether the Soviets would provide it is a different question, other vaccines were not cleared for human use at the time).
 
If its before Nukes but after the American Blockade, expect the Americans to starve them all too death. Using gas for the Americans wouldn't be that effective.
 
Quite a dark thought, but...

Japan had a very active bioweapons program in the '30s and '40s, and the horrifying Unit 731 experimented with anthrax. Is it possible that by 1940 or so, Japan could have similar capabilities as the UK in terms of being able to launch their own version of Operation Vegetarian? Given how willing Imperial Japan was to deploy biological weapons against the Chinese, I'd imagine that weaponized anthrax would have been used if it was available. Japan didn't have the same heavy bombing capabilities as the UK though, so would they have been too constrained in their delivery to have much of an impact? However brutal the effects are, it obviously won't win the war for Japan, though I could imagine the Japanese deploying anthrax as a last-ditch effort to deny the US use of certain islands.

Would use of weaponized anthrax in China justify chemical retaliation from the rest of the Allies? Presumably if anthrax is used in any other theater, the gloves come off completely.

Japan used weaponized anthrax in China (along with cholera, bubonic plague, etc.) IOTL, though certainly not in quantities sufficient to permanently contaminate the country.
 
(although it is important to keep in mind that there IS a human Anthrax vaccine in use in the USSR, one that was in use by 1940, whether the Soviets would provide it is a different question, other vaccines were not cleared for human use at the time).

Didn't realise the Soviets had a Vaccine. I guess that means Vegetarian Europes would be redder than I'd thought.


If the Japanese did this on a major scale I could see a lot less Japanese apologism post war (assuming the Americans leave them with a nation to apologise with).

I wonder, could they use those cross Pacific balloons to drop some on the US mainland?
 

CalBear

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Didn't realise the Soviets had a Vaccine. I guess that means Vegetarian Europes would be redder than I'd thought.


If the Japanese did this on a major scale I could see a lot less Japanese apologism post war (assuming the Americans leave them with a nation to apologise with).

I wonder, could they use those cross Pacific balloons to drop some on the US mainland?

They could. The problem is that, much like Plague, with is what they did send, anthrax is endemic in the Western U.S. (deer die of it on an not uncommon basis, outbreaks in cattle herds are rare, but that is because they are vaccinated and have been since the early 1900s).

The amount needed to really alter the balance is so great that I don't think they could make enough balloons.
 
Japan used weaponized anthrax in China (along with cholera, bubonic plague, etc.) IOTL, though certainly not in quantities sufficient to permanently contaminate the country.

From what I recall (and I could be wrong), plague and other biological weapons were used in a much greater capacity than anthrax. Did they even get beyond testing the latter IOTL? Granted with 731 involved testing and deployment might just be a matter of degree.

It very much depends on when the Japanese decide to commit. Vegetarian was meant to be a "last great act of defiance" and/or retaliation for violating the Conventions on Chemical Weapons. If the Japanese use that same criteria, usage doesn't start until after Saipan (the Japanese REALLY wanted to retain Saipan as a permanent part of the Empire, hence the 22K+ civilian colonists).

If weaponized anthrax is available before war with the western Allies though, would it have been used in China? The Three Alls policy and the use of other biological agents certainly doesn't suggest the Japanese would be as restrained as the British were with their program.

Revenge/defiance makes contamination of at least portions of the Philippines likely, same for parts of the DEI and Indochina, especially the agricultural areas and certain urban areas like Manila.

That would be ugly, to say the least. One imagines that the occupation of Japan would be less lenient, with a lot more emphasis on confronting war crimes if contaminated areas exist to serve as a very persistent reminder.

Area denial is sort of interesting. Iwo Jima seems to be a given. Very important bit of sulfur scented hell for the U.S. but almost uninhabited. Hell, if I was the Japanese I would have my Swiss Ambassador get word to the Americans via the Swiss government telling them exactly what had been done, include some samples. After that, it becomes a matter of just how much of Japanese territory you are willing to poison, for centuries.

They could probably say that some portion of the Marshall and Caroline islands also 'might' be dangerous, without reference to which ones. And they might well be, over the course of the war. Only would take one encounter to make the US paranoid.

Another interesting possible use is against Tinian. Japanese aircraft, including the G4M & Ki-49 could make a one way trip to Tinian. Hitting the B-29 bases with suicide bombing attacks could be fairly effective, assuming reasonable methods of dispersal of the agent (although it is important to keep in mind that there IS a human Anthrax vaccine in use in the USSR, one that was in use by 1940, whether the Soviets would provide it is a different question, other vaccines were not cleared for human use at the time).

Even if the Soviets do provide it, there is the question of whether it would be effective enough, and how practical it'd be to scale up production.
 

Tovarich

Banned
Potential of a Japanese Vegetarian?

Pretty unlikely, fish is too central to Japanese cuisine......(I'll get me coat)
 
They could. The problem is that, much like Plague, with is what they did send, anthrax is endemic in the Western U.S. (deer die of it on an not uncommon basis, outbreaks in cattle herds are rare, but that is because they are vaccinated and have been since the early 1900s).

The amount needed to really alter the balance is so great that I don't think they could make enough balloons.

I'd only heard about the fire bombs, didn't know they'd sent any biological agents over.
 
I'd only heard about the fire bombs, didn't know they'd sent any biological agents over.

They were in the process of implementing the attack (using I-400s and planes) until a member of the Imperial Family (prince... I don't remember who) ordered them to stop.

Anyway, without modern genetically engineered strains, you can do little more than create local outbreaks or, in the case of anthrax, a dead zone. Today the situation is different (personally I consider today bioweapons even more dangerous of nuclear ones).
 
Anyway, without modern genetically engineered strains, you can do little more than create local outbreaks or, in the case of anthrax, a dead zone. Today the situation is different (personally I consider today bioweapons even more dangerous of nuclear ones).

Very true. However at least you can make anthrax much more lethal by using human incubators. All you need is a lack of ethics.

The Vollum Strain is one of the 89 known strains of the anthrax bacterium (Bacillus anthracis). It is named Vollum after Roy Vollum, the Canadian-born bacteriologist who first isolated it from a cow in Oxford, England. The "Vollum 14578" strain was selected for use in the bioweapons trials on Gruinard Island, which took place in 1942.

Like other forms of Anthrax, the Vollum strain becomes more virulent with exposure to more hosts. There is a sub-strain of it called Vollum 1B that is the weaponized form and was used in American warheads during the 1960's, but its origin is controversial.

One theory that originated from a bio weapons veteran, William C. Patrick III, is that Vollum 1B came from being altered when the microbiologist William A. Boyles inhaled anthrax spores on the job. According to him, the "B" is there to stand for Boyles.

A competing theory is based on the fact that during the 40's and 50's, a British biological weapons program worked to enhance the virulence of the strain by passing it through a series of monkey hosts, which created a sub-strain of the Vollum strain called "M36". In papers that reference this "M36" sub-strain, it is called the Vollum 1B strain.(wikipedia)
As for a POD, there aren't many changes needed.

In 1925, Ishii was promoted to army surgeon, first class (surgeon captain) and by 1927 he was advocating the creation of a bio-weapons program. Beginning in 1928, he took a two-year tour of the West. In his travels, he did extensive research on the effects of biological warfare and chemical warfare developments from World War I onwards. It was a highly successful mission and helped win him the patronage of Sadao Araki, Minister of the Army. He received promotion to senior army surgeon, third class (surgeon major), in January 1931. In 1932, he began his preliminary experiments in biological warfare as a secret project for the Japanese military at Zhongma Fortess. (wikipedia)

Just have Ishii prioritize the research into anthrax above else. Then he increases the lethality of the strains used by consecutively infecting prisoners and harvesting their corpses for better spores. Starting right at the beginning of 1931 should leave the Japanese enough time to cook up something truly nightmarish. Jack London's "The Unparalleled Invasion" will be seen as brutaly prophetic in such a timeline.
 
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