Potential candidates for the Imperial Throne of Mexico.

So at the close of the War of Independence in 1820, Agustin de Iturbide proclaimed the Plan de Iguala, a sort of declaration of independence. It called for the establishment an independent Mexican Empire as a constitutional monarchy, Ferdinand VII would be offered the throne and if he didn't accept it was expected he designated another member of the House of Borbon instead, but since Spain failed to recognize the independence at all, the the Mexican Congress instead named Agustin de Iturbide the monarch, which would led to the collapse of the empire when old enemies began to accuse him of being power-hungry and conspired to bring him down.

What candidates could accept the Imperial Throne that might keep the Empire afloat? Is there any way to get Spain accept the Mexican independence and perhaps allow a Bourbon to assume its throne, or at least pave the way for other Catholic nobles to attempt?

Potential Candidates:
  • Ferdinand VII of Spain
  • Don Francisco de Paula, a brother to Ferdinand VII, apparently had liberal leanings. Very safe choice, no?
  • Don Carlos, a brother to Ferdinand VII, apparently anti-liberal and extremely reactionary. The republicans would probably not approve.
  • Archduke Karl of Teschen, the third son of Holy Roman Emperor Leopold II and younger brother to Holy Roman Emperor Francis II. A veteran of the Napoleonic Wars, apparently a strategic genius. I'm unsure if he actually ruled an Archduchy.
Any suggestions, thoughts?
 
None of the above. Fernando would never accept the loss of his colonies and I felt that he would've done everything imaginable to quash this movement dead, despite being on the losing end of it all. For the scenario in question to work would require a change in personality for Fernando VII, or alternatively French Imperial success in the Peninsular War (which is difficult as it is for an entirely different reason.)

Alternatively, an earlier death of Fernando VII (and Don Carlos, who'd probably be even more fanactical about it, being reactionary to the core.), could pave the way for a possible independent Mexican monarchy, of course by doing so, we just killed two of the four possible candidates. Assuming we stick to the 1820 PoD, then Don Carlos' son, also named Don Carlos becomes Carlos VI, under a regency (he'd be two years old at the time). So we still have Francisco de Paula & Karl of Teschen.
 
Would Spain / Ferdinand VII really be able to prevent an Austrian noble from accepting the throne? I feel Spanish-Austrian relations would just take a hit but nothing too major.

Also couldn't Don Francisco just leave by himself? What would be the consequences of that?
 
So at the close of the War of Independence in 1820, Agustin de Iturbide proclaimed the Plan de Iguala, a sort of declaration of independence. It called for the establishment an independent Mexican Empire as a constitutional monarchy, Ferdinand VII would be offered the throne and if he didn't accept it was expected he designated another member of the House of Borbon instead, but since Spain failed to recognize the independence at all, the the Mexican Congress instead named Agustin de Iturbide the monarch, which would led to the collapse of the empire when old enemies began to accuse him of being power-hungry and conspired to bring him down.

What candidates could accept the Imperial Throne that might keep the Empire afloat? Is there any way to get Spain accept the Mexican independence and perhaps allow a Bourbon to assume its throne, or at least pave the way for other Catholic nobles to attempt?

Potential Candidates:
  • Ferdinand VII of Spain
  • Don Francisco de Paula, a brother to Ferdinand VII, apparently had liberal leanings. Very safe choice, no?
  • Don Carlos, a brother to Ferdinand VII, apparently anti-liberal and extremely reactionary. The republicans would probably not approve.
  • Archduke Karl of Teschen, the third son of Holy Roman Emperor Leopold II and younger brother to Holy Roman Emperor Francis II. A veteran of the Napoleonic Wars, apparently a strategic genius. I'm unsure if he actually ruled an Archduchy.
Any suggestions, thoughts?

Karl would be a good candidate - he himself was wealthy, a good general and well-connected (he had a Dutch wife whose Protestantism might not go over so well in Catholic Mexico, but her ties to Britain, Prussia and the Netherlands could go a far way in helping making that more palatable). Although IDK if he'll be willing to leave Europe for America. If we look at his military record, he was pretty conservative and big on rules, but at the same time, he also seemed to have no problem breaking those rules when it suited his purposes. If he's the same in politics it could be an interesting scenario.

Carlos won't be going to Mexico as long as Fernando VII doesn't have a son. So, if we give Fernando a son instead of a daughter by one of the two wives that actually bore him kids (probably his Portuguese queen, since the POD is in 1824), that he doesn't "need" Carlos so desperately anymore, it might change things. He could dispatch Carlos to Mexico to put down a revolt, and Carlos ends up as emperor.

Francisco is good if you don't want to get into a messy personal union with Spain, but IDK if he'd have the cajones to leave by himself, maybe his wife gets fed up (as she did OTL) with playing second fiddle to Maria Francisca, Countess of Molina, so she urges him to leave Spain.

Other candidates that were also on the cards were the duke of Lucca and the prince of Salerno. Both of them might be easier to persuade to exchange their "small" European holdings for an "empire" in the Americas many times as large. But it comes down to Fernando VII signing off on the idea.
 
Karl would be a good candidate - he himself was wealthy, a good general and well-connected (he had a Dutch wife whose Protestantism might not go over so well in Catholic Mexico, but her ties to Britain, Prussia and the Netherlands could go a far way in helping making that more palatable). Although IDK if he'll be willing to leave Europe for America. If we look at his military record, he was pretty conservative and big on rules, but at the same time, he also seemed to have no problem breaking those rules when it suited his purposes. If he's the same in politics it could be an interesting scenario.

Carlos won't be going to Mexico as long as Fernando VII doesn't have a son. So, if we give Fernando a son instead of a daughter by one of the two wives that actually bore him kids (probably his Portuguese queen, since the POD is in 1824), that he doesn't "need" Carlos so desperately anymore, it might change things. He could dispatch Carlos to Mexico to put down a revolt, and Carlos ends up as emperor.

Francisco is good if you don't want to get into a messy personal union with Spain, but IDK if he'd have the cajones to leave by himself, maybe his wife gets fed up (as she did OTL) with playing second fiddle to Maria Francisca, Countess of Molina, so she urges him to leave Spain.

Other candidates that were also on the cards were the duke of Lucca and the prince of Salerno. Both of them might be easier to persuade to exchange their "small" European holdings for an "empire" in the Americas many times as large. But it comes down to Fernando VII signing off on the idea.

What is the worst that could happen if somebody in Europe takes the throne while Spain refuses to aknowledge the existence of such a throne? And how would a Carlist Mexico look?
 
What is the worst that could happen if somebody in Europe takes the throne while Spain refuses to aknowledge the existence of such a throne? And how would a Carlist Mexico look?
Probably much like a Carlist Spain would in my opinion. I do not believe she would be too different. He'd establish himself as an absolute monarch and quite possibly could lose the country in the future to a revolt. He would probably try and centralize the country very much.

I quite like the idea of Karl being Mexican Emperor. It makes sense, and he probably would be a good Emperor. A lasting Mexican Empire of such a size could have massive effects in twenty years. A stable Mexico and a growing Mexico with European connections could really put a dent in the ambitions of one English speaking Nations to the East.
 
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