Potential assassinations of wartime leaders during WWII

Fenestella

Banned
Some have suggested that the US Secret Service had no real countermeasure to presidential sniper-assassins prior to the JFK assassination. If true, what would have happened to FDR if Germany/Japan assigned some real marksmen to assassinate him?

I've heard the rumor that the British abandoned a developed plan to snipe-assassinate Hitler. What would happen if enacted?

If the Axis leaders desperately wanted the Allied leaders assassinated, and vice versa, how would you rank the levels of security risk of Churchill / Hitler / Mussolini / Roosevelt / Stalin / Tojo?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
The Allies penetrated Italy, Germany, and Japan

Some have suggested that the US Secret Service had no real countermeasure to presidential sniper-assassins prior to the JFK assassination. If true, what would have happened to FDR if Germany/Japan assigned some real marksmen to assassinate him? I've heard the rumor that the British abandoned a developed plan to snipe-assassinate Hitler. What would happen if enacted? If the Axis leaders desperately wanted the Allied leaders assassinated, and vice versa, how would you rank the levels of security risk of Churchill / Hitler / Mussolini / Roosevelt / Stalin / Tojo?

The Allies penetrated Italy, Germany, and Japan sucessfully in 1943-45, and the British certainly demonstrated the ability to get a senior German official as early as 1942 in Heydrich; the Axis' attempts at intelligence/special operations in Allied territory, with the partial exception of the USSR, were absolute failures.

Seems the ranking is pretty simple.;)

Best,
 

Deleted member 1487

The Allies penetrated Italy, Germany, and Japan sucessfully in 1943-45, and the British certainly demonstrated the ability to get a senior German official as early as 1942 in Heydrich; the Axis' attempts at intelligence/special operations in Allied territory, with the partial exception of the USSR, were absolute failures.

Seems the ranking is pretty simple.;)

Best,
AFAIK the penetration of Germany was really not much until the Germans were already collapsing. The one off instances did not go well, like the Heydrich assassination; they got their target only because he was traveling in an open car without guards, which Hitler and Mussolini most certainly were not, and the Czech assassins nearly bungled the thing. Heydrich died of a surviveable infection that could have been cured if his doctors had opted to use early antibiotics that were available.

The Axis wouldn't have done well with that either, I highly doubt they'd get close to Stalin even if their efforts to do so weren't compromised by NKVD double agents.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
In all cases, the Allies certainly had better odds than the Axis

AFAIK the penetration of Germany was really not much until the Germans were already collapsing. The one off instances did not go well, like the Heydrich assassination; they got their target only because he was traveling in an open car without guards, which Hitler and Mussolini most certainly were not, and the Czech assassins nearly bungled the thing. Heydrich died of a surviveable infection that could have been cured if his doctors had opted to use early antibiotics that were available. The Axis wouldn't have done well with that either, I highly doubt they'd get close to Stalin even if their efforts to do so weren't compromised by NKVD double agents.

In all cases, the Allies certainly had better odds than the Axis.

The Allies, at least, could insert operators into Germany and Italy pratically at will by air and also by sea into Italy, and - given enough planning - could have done so in Japan as well, as Fluckey's merry men proved with Barb's cruise.

The Germans' best efforts all ended with people getting caught, giving themselves up, and being turned, in the UK and US; the Italians don't seem to even managed that much, and the "best" the Japanese managed were a couple of deck gun bombardments in 1942 and the flight of the I-25's floatplane.

Not exactly the SOE and OSS, much less whatever the Soviet equivalent was ...

Best,
 
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AFAIK the penetration of Germany was really not much until the Germans were already collapsing. The one off instances did not go well, like the Heydrich assassination; they got their target only because he was traveling in an open car without guards, which Hitler and Mussolini most certainly were not, and the Czech assassins nearly bungled the thing. Heydrich died of a surviveable infection that could have been cured if his doctors had opted to use early antibiotics that were available.

The Axis wouldn't have done well with that either, I highly doubt they'd get close to Stalin even if their efforts to do so weren't compromised by NKVD double agents.
Czechoslovak, not Czech. It was Czechoslovak army in Great Britain of which command were members. Also Gabcik was Slovak and Kubis Czech so it was indeed joint Czechoslovak operation. :D First modern Czech army was created only in January 1993. What got bungled was Gabcik's Sten. Soldiers performed as planned. If Heydrich was not stupid and ordered his driver to step on the gas he may live without injury and live till hanged after war in one of Prague prisons. Instead he pulled his pistol and try to shoot Gabcik. That's when Kubis continued as planned (in case something prevent Gabcik to shoot) and got Protector who couldn't protect himself with the grenade. Not loss there. What was loss were lives of Czech civilians killed by Germans in retribution. On other side these killing were probably last straw which led to annulation of Munich agreement by Britain. So since then Germans could say bye to Sudetland. And this also led to events in which many Germans from Sudetland could wave bye Sudetland.
 

Fenestella

Banned
Given all their resources and efforts, the Axis couldn't get a shot fired at FDR, yet we're told that Lee Harvey Oswald, a known defector, managed to fire shot after shot at JFK.
 
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After Heydrich was assassinated, the Axis killed thousands of civilians Czech civilians, as well as all remaining Jews in Berlin, in retaliation.

Also, the Nazi high command during WW2 was often not militarily competent. Their rise to power was brilliant, of course, but they were not as good as they could have been at its use. So a successful assassination of Hitler and his inner circle could well have lengthened the war, as more competent people came in. If someone had simply decided not to invade Russia, or not to launch the ill-fated North Africa campaign, the Nazis would have been far, far harder to dislodge.

Finally -- bear in mind that in OTL's 21st century wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, we have pursued a policy of assassination and it has not delivered victory. America's target organizations have simply replaced the fallen leaders through promotion and recruitment.
 
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Given all their resources and efforts, the Axis couldn't get a shot fired at FDR, yet we're told that Lee Harvey Oswald, a known defector, managed to fire shot after shot at JFK.

I think it is much harder to stop a lone person from committing a terrorist act or assassination attempt ahead of time. If you have a group of people they need to meet and communicate with each other to coordinate their activities. Or in the case of a spy network they need to get their information back home. All of that meeting and communicating gives a chance for someone to notice suspicious activity or intercept communications.
 

Fenestella

Banned
I think it is much harder to stop a lone person from committing a terrorist act or assassination attempt ahead of time. If you have a group of people they need to meet and communicate with each other to coordinate their activities. Or in the case of a spy network they need to get their information back home. All of that meeting and communicating gives a chance for someone to notice suspicious activity or intercept communications.
What about a lone sleeper? Was Oswald one?
 
No, Oswald just got very, very lucky. Why is that so hard for people to accept? In any case, we're getting off topic.
 
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What about a lone sleeper? Was Oswald one?

Maybe if the Nazis set up a few lone sleepers in the 1930s with the orders to blend in and act normal and then if the US ever goes to war with Germany try to assassinate the president or other high ranking leaders. That would take a lot of forethought and you would need people who are 100% committed to the ideology to stay committed that long.

But even if they did that and were able to get into a position to actually assassinate FDR or Churchill I don't think it would have made any drastic changes to the war effort and probably would have emboldened the public to support the war effort to get vengeance on the Nazis for killing their president/PM.

If the Germans managed to assassinate Stalin it might have better effects if the USSR wound up with different factions fighting for power. However with how paranoid Stalin was I think it would be a lot harder for an assassin to get the opportunity to shoot at him or plant a bomb.
 
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