Postwar election results of a victorious German Empire

[Moctezuma1466]

How would the party system and elections of a victorious German Empire have looked like? And who would have received the most votes during the election of 1918 (Let's use my favourite PoD, Falkenhayn stays on as 2nd OHL, no Hindenburg Program, no USW, CP win in 1918). I assume the SPD would still have received the most votes. They obtained a third of all votes and I think ITTL they alsou would have obtained at least 1/3 of the votes. Do you think the old elite conservative parties still would have united into a TTL DNVP/DVLP?

 

[Nivek]

How would the party system and elections of a victorious German Empire have looked like? And who would have received the most votes during the election of 1918 (Let's use my favourite PoD, Falkenhayn stays on as 2nd OHL, no Hindenburg Program, no USW, CP win in 1918). I assume the SPD would still have received the most votes. They obtained a third of all votes and I think ITTL they alsou would have obtained at least 1/3 of the votes. Do you think the old elite conservative parties still would have united into a TTL DNVP/DVLP?

People Take SPD victory as a fait acompli, what if the opposite. The POD could make a deadlock or give the edge SPD or conservatives, WHO KNOWS? we only know is that an election have to be call. The big Change is no Hindenburg program, them the prussia three class system still stays(Willy II pacted to ended it in exchange for it)

 

[NoMommsen]

People Take SPD victory as a fait acompli, what if the opposite. The POD could make a deadlock or give the edge SPD or conservatives, WHO KNOWS? we only know is that an election have to be call. The big Change is no Hindenburg program, them the prussia three class system still stays(Willy II pacted to ended it in exchange for it)

... interesting ... can't remember ever coming across such a constellation.

Do I understand you right?

The Kaiser ... "pacted" for getting the Hindenburg-program enacted in exchange for 'granting' the abolishment of 3-class franchise in Prussia?​

With whom did he "pact" ?
Did Hindenburg and/or Ludendorff or any other member of the 'Reichsleitung' knew about ?
Who else was involded to this 'scheme'?

 

[Nivek]

... interesting ... can't remember ever coming across such a constellation.

Do I understand you right?

The Kaiser ... "pacted" for getting the Hindenburg-program enacted in exchange for 'granting' the abolishment of 3-class franchise in Prussia?​

With whom did he "pact" ?
Did Hindenburg and/or Ludendorff or any other member of the 'Reichsleitung' knew about ?
Who else was involded to this 'scheme'?

This is why misss Susano, seems the OHL and at the time Kanzler https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theobald_von_Bethmann_Hollweg did make a pact with the general Reichstag and several industrialist and Workers(that were the second and third strata in the system) in exchange to push the Hidenburg Programm it would be a social change post war....

 

[Riain]

In the Federal system the SPD was the biggest party, but would the war change the the electorate's view on such things and reduce the popularity of the SPD? IIUC were quite internationalist and class conscious, but the war might have shown the limits to that idea, and the Bolsheviks taking power in the Soviet Union might lead to distrust of Social parties in general. IIUC Germans were interested in land gains in the East, so will likely vote for parties that promise to make the most of MittelEuropa, which I doubt is the SPD.

On the state level, Prussian 3 class franchise being abolished will have an impact on election result, they'd probably more closely align with Federal trends. However East Prussia was invaded and 1/3 of its territory occupied by the Russians for over 6 months from late 1914 to mid 1915. This will undoubtedly impact voting trends, I imagine Prussians in general voting for parties who promise more security and a significant difference from Soviet Russia, so I doubt the SPD will gain a stranglehold on power in Prussia.

More widely Prussia wasn't the only state with multiple class franchise, I think there was one smaller state with 8 classes. I think when Prussia's franchise aligns with Imperial rules so too will other states, they won't be realistically able to resist it.

 

[Nivek]

In the Federal system the SPD was the biggest party, but would the war change the the electorate's view on such things and reduce the popularity of the SPD? IIUC were quite internationalist and class conscious, but the war might have shown the limits to that idea, and the Bolsheviks taking power in the Soviet Union might lead to distrust of Social parties in general. IIUC Germans were interested in land gains in the East, so will likely vote for parties that promise to make the most of MittelEuropa, which I doubt is the SPD.

On the state level, Prussian 3 class franchise being abolished will have an impact on election result, they'd probably more closely align with Federal trends. However East Prussia was invaded and 1/3 of its territory occupied by the Russians for over 6 months from late 1914 to mid 1915. This will undoubtedly impact voting trends, I imagine Prussians in general voting for parties who promise more security and a significant difference from Soviet Russia, so I doubt the SPD will gain a stranglehold on power in Prussia.

More widely Prussia wasn't the only state with multiple class franchise, I think there was one smaller state with 8 classes. I think when Prussia's franchise aligns with Imperial rules so too will other states, they won't be realistically able to resist it.

Yeah Those are several butterflies will impact the voters. That will be very unique.

 

[Nelson Mikeson]

In the Federal system the SPD was the biggest party, but would the war change the the electorate's view on such things and reduce the popularity of the SPD? IIUC were quite internationalist and class conscious, but the war might have shown the limits to that idea, and the Bolsheviks taking power in the Soviet Union might lead to distrust of Social parties in general. IIUC Germans were interested in land gains in the East, so will likely vote for parties that promise to make the most of MittelEuropa, which I doubt is the SPD.

On the state level, Prussian 3 class franchise being abolished will have an impact on election result, they'd probably more closely align with Federal trends. However East Prussia was invaded and 1/3 of its territory occupied by the Russians for over 6 months from late 1914 to mid 1915. This will undoubtedly impact voting trends, I imagine Prussians in general voting for parties who promise more security and a significant difference from Soviet Russia, so I doubt the SPD will gain a stranglehold on power in Prussia.

More widely Prussia wasn't the only state with multiple class franchise, I think there was one smaller state with 8 classes. I think when Prussia's franchise aligns with Imperial rules so too will other states, they won't be realistically able to resist it.

Most of the SPD also played safe, by supporting the war effort out of patriotism and not organizing strikes. While I doubt it could win a majority in 1918, the large population of war veterans would increase the popularity of socialist parties, so we may eventually see an SPD government in the 1920s or 1930s, maybe after a general strike forces the Kaiser to bend to the will of the people. Although, don't expect a British-style constitutional monarchy, we would see social reforms, but the Reichswehr and the Kaiser would keep their power.

 

[Riain]

Most of the SPD also played safe, by supporting the war effort out of patriotism and not organizing strikes. While I doubt it could win a majority in 1918, the large population of war veterans would increase the popularity of socialist parties, so we may eventually see an SPD government in the 1920s or 1930s, maybe after a general strike forces the Kaiser to bend to the will of the people. Although, don't expect a British-style constitutional monarchy, we would see social reforms, but the Reichswehr and the Kaiser would keep their power.

Imperial Germany won't become like Britain because it was a Federation, but it did have a major Constitutional change in early October 1918 in the hope that it would get them better terms at the peace table. This in effect turned Germany into a constitutional monarchy.

 

[Nivek]

Imperial Germany won't become like Britain because it was a Federation, but it did have a major Constitutional change in early October 1918 in the hope that it would get them better terms at the peace table. This in effect turned Germany into a constitutional monarchy.

That wouldn't happen here because butterflies

 

[Riain]

That wouldn't happen here because butterflies

No, but it's a good example of what constitutional change/development should look like.

 

[Raferty]

I think the Fatherland Party in the case of a victory will become the party associated with that victory, as it was for the war when times were tough and the benefits of that victory will be seen as something to credit them with. This will impact the direction the political right goes, certainly. It will arguably become the party of the winning members of the establishment after the war.

The big losers will be the liberal parties. The war unleashed nationalism to a degree that escaped the bounds of traditional Burgertum German Liberal Nationalism, and became much more volkisch, and in a victory, this doesn't change. Just because the Empire survives, it doesn't mean necessarily that the imperial project the Liberals championed would be on such a great footing - the institutions that did thrive in the war were the army, who the liberals had long had an uneasy relationship with, as well as the militarized aristocracy, large armament firms, and the trade unions, which became essential to the war effort. Only large industrial firms were friendly to the liberals, and the German power project after the war would have entailed a large, land based empire in Eastern Europe facing down a Bolshevik state, and a Britain that while on the losing side, likely still had its fleet, to say nothing of America's.

The Zentrum was less a political party than a social movement for German Catholics and was extremely ideologically flexible and would have remained a significant force - if the party system fractures enough, they could lead a gvt, but more likely than not, they'd play the role of a coalition partner mostly.

The extension of the franchise would see the conservative parties face a tough choice - they'd have to become mass parties, but really I think besides Eastern Prussia, they are going to lose out over time - in OTL, the DNVP struggled internally with this, but in this scenario, I think its quite possible they get subsumed under the Fatherland party and become more a pressure group for the interests of Elbian landowners and government employees.

The SPD could very well see an evolution like the UK Labour Party in the case of a victory - radicalism would be dampened, and the material basis of its program would be much easier for the state to carry out. I think it would be a major force that would become the main competition to the Fatherland Party, which would be more like a coalition of the right, at least at the beginning before maybe splintering.

Something not touched on much is what the far-right looks like. Anti-Semitism was definitely unleased by the war in addition to calls for socialism and feelings of nationalism, and I think would remain potent, but not nearly to the extent of OTL. Pre-War, Germany had a tradition of small, regional anti-semitic parties, and this would continue after the war as well - but I think they would remain mostly on the fringes of politics, unless some kind of crisis came into play, in which case they could see some expansion.

 

[NoMommsen]

This is why misss Susano, seems the OHL and at the time Kanzler https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theobald_von_Bethmann_Hollweg did make a pact with the general Reichstag and several industrialist and Workers(that were the second and third strata in the system) in exchange to push the Hidenburg Programm it would be a social change post war....

Sry to say but ... nowhere in the wiki article you linked is any connection between the Hindenburg program and the electoral reform for prussia mentioned or described.
Neither involving Bethmann-Hollweg - the article is about in the first place - with the Hindenburg program at all nor - as you stated in post #2 - the Kaiser's ivolvent with any such 'scheme' exchanging prussian franchise reform with/for the Hindenburg program.

... and ... who's "misss Susano" 🤔

 

[Nivek]

misss Susano

Susano was the German poster,he knew everything about the German nation since Barbarossa onwards

Bethmann-Hollweg

I linked the wiki to reference who was the kanzler at the time,much of the info is on German and sadly I can't read Deutsche

 

[NoMommsen]

Susano was the German poster,he knew everything about the German nation since Barbarossa onwards

... well ... I searched the contend of said for over 10 years now banned member.

First:​

IMHO he would never had accepted such an exaggerated valuation of his knwoledge about the german antion​

Second:​

I failed to find any reference to the topic between the two of us:​

a connection between electoral reform in Prussia and the Hindenburg program preferably with the by you stated involvement of the Kaiser.​

I linked the wiki to reference who was the kanzler at the time,much of the info is on German and sadly I can't read Deutsche

Neither in the english nor in the german (I am german) wiki page on Bethmann-Hollweg is any reference to above mentioned topic as well. So ... what was your point?

Imperial Germany won't become like Britain because it was a Federation, but it did have a major Constitutional change in early October 1918 in the hope that it would get them better terms at the peace table. This in effect turned Germany into a constitutional monarchy.

That wouldn't happen here because butterflies

... another post its content I'm not fully able to follow or agree wholesale.

Why should ... what butterflies cause reforms NOT to happen?​

The OP states :

- no Hindenburg in as important a figure as IOTL​

- therewith no Hindenburg program and a​

- CP win in 1918 ... not specifying WHEN in 1918​

With the war going roughly as long as IOTL we very likely would still see economic conditions for the populace deteriorate similarly as IOTL. Though ... without Hindenburg probably no Hindenburg program making things even worse than they were. But ITTL the people won't know that it could have become such worse.
Therefore domestic politics would move in very similar ways as OTL regarding 'political demands' (i.e. : participation on the counsils determining who would be hold at home for economic reasons or who would have to move to the front (what partially was impleneted); participation of the parties and members thereof on govermental decision processes, electoral reform esp. regarding Prussia) and developments that lead first to the 'Easter-message' (sry didn't find an english translation quickly) on 7th April 1917 already announcing a change on prussian franchise.
That it actually took until Oktober 1918 for the October Reforms to actually happen was very much caused by the dynamic Duo of Hindi/Ludi what caused the SPD to initiate/lead the 'Interparty commitee' (no english reference found quickly enough) not only enforcing the 'Peace Resolution' of July 1917 but also eventually leading to said Oktober Reforms.

Wihtout the dynamic duo ... given the before 3rd OHL rather better to good 'understanding' between trade unions, SPD and the real 'managers' of the War Ministry v.Wandel (much shorter here in english)and Scheuch (german version MUCH more informative, use of a translator recommended) (v.Hohenborn and v.Stein were rather 'figureheads' than actually involving themself into the by soldiers so disgusted administrational smallsmall work). The works of G.D.Feldman are a most elucidating read.

That said IMHO the advent of reforms to democratizising the Realm and Prussia would come even earlier ITTL than OTL as the obstacles for - the dynamic duo - are not in place.

Regarding the electoral franchise be informed that since autumn 1914 the prussian Minister of the Interior v. Loebell was tasked by the Kaiser to deliver such a reform. ... only the latter deliberatly handled this rather dilatory being the conservative hardliner he was and only his successor Drews finally presented an accorging proposal.
It should also not ber forgotten that a reform of the prussian franchise was one of the very first tasks Bethmann-Hollweg - though unsuccessfull then - embarked upon on become prussian minister president and chancellor of the realm. ... actually a reform of the frqanchise was an ongoing 'bone of contempt' since the adption of the prussian constuitution of 1848 being amended 1850.

 

[Riain]

Why should ... what butterflies cause reforms NOT to happen?

I can't speak for Nivek but my guess is that the October 1918 Constitutional reform was a last ditch effort for the almost defeated Germany to get better peace terms. If Germany isn't being defeated then there is no need for the drastic reforms in order to get better terms.

I agree that the reform of Prussian franchise will occur, as you say it was looked at before the war and publicly promised in early 1917. What I want to know is how this will effect Federal politic given the Emperor selected his Government from the Prussian 'Government'. Was the Prussian Prime Minister the leader of the majority in the Prussian Parliament, therefore the new Prussian voting will throw up very different candidates for the Kaiser to appoint to Imperial Chancellor?

 

[NoMommsen]

I can't speak for Nivek but my guess is that the October 1918 Constitutional reform was a last ditch effort for the almost defeated Germany to get better peace terms. If Germany isn't being defeated then there is no need for the drastic reforms in order to get better terms.

Well ... one could argue Hindi/Ludy were running after the evolution of circumstances not only at the front but also at home. Hindi/Ludy - IMHO - simple gave up their resistance and into constitutional changes that were already for quite some time in the discussion when the dynamic duo proposed the involvement of members of the Interparty Committee into the goverment and let them work/negotiate for some favorable peace at the end of september '18.

Actually 'civilian' politicians - notably trade unions, SPD, Nationaliberals (Stresemann faction) et al. - had already gained quite some influence on adminstring war effort and adjusting them to the populace' conditions in collaboration with esp. the War Ministry before 196. It was the 3rd OHL that cut off such bands and made the foundation of the Interparty Committee in summer 1917 necessary.

As said eralier an urge to change the political system and organisation was felt almost from the beginning of the war at least since september/october 1914 when Kaiser Bill ordered Loebell to deliver some proposal for a change of the franchise. And such an urge was not only felt by the political parties but govermental circles as well.
And the longer the war the greater said urge became IOTL. ITTL it won't be almost as long and therefore the said urge become as pressing. Only that ITTL the relations between civilians and military won't deteriorate as they did IOTL. Therefore I render an even earlier 'agreement' on such reforms well within the cards. Maybe not exactly the same as IOTL but ... similar and also much more parliamentarising.

I agree that the reform of Prussian franchise will occur, as you say it was looked at before the war and publicly promised in early 1917. What I want to know is how this will effect Federal politic given the Emperor selected his Government from the Prussian 'Government'. Was the Prussian Prime Minister the leader of the majority in the Prussian Parliament, therefore the new Prussian voting will throw up very different candidates for the Kaiser to appoint to Imperial Chancellor?

The SPD 'only' wanted to change the franchise alone to the same as for the Reichstag. They didn't intended - yet - to change further elements of the prussian constitution.
Therefore the ministerpresident would still be appointed by the Kaiser without participation of the Landtag and therefore be 'his' candidate as the chancellor. As Ministerpresident he would have to 'organize' majorities for his projects by himself (though it would help being 'associated' to a bigger faction of the parliament ;-)).
As the chancellor ... there might happen the situation that the Reichstag denies the chancellor its confidence.
In that case ... I don't know if there was some precautionary section for. I would have to research the actual texts of the reform laws proposed.
IIRC it would even need an amendment to the consitution as its there stated that it has to be the prussian Ministerpresident.

 

[Nivek]

ederal politic given the Emperor selected his Government from the Prussian 'Government'. Was the Prussian Prime Minister the leader of the majority in the Prussian Parliament, therefore the new Prussian voting will throw up very different candidates for the Kaiser to appoint to Imperial Chancellor?

Technically, the dual office of Prussian Prime Minister and Kanzler was because Bismark and WIlly I DIDN'T Bother to change it, nor Willy 2. I think Willy 3 was willing to change that but he will have to wait till his turn

 

[Riain]

The change to the Prussian franchise I think would satisfy the appetite for reform for some time during peace. The next step in constitutional development would need to await a constitutional crisis to force status-quo peacetime politicians and leaders to make a change, I can't see the OTL wartime October 1918 arrangements being achieved for decades in peacetime.

 

[NoMommsen]

The change to the Prussian franchise I think would satisfy the appetite for reform for some time during peace. The next step in constitutional development would need to await a constitutional crisis to force status-quo peacetime politicians and leaders to make a change, I can't see the OTL wartime October 1918 arrangements being achieved for decades in peacetime.

... what level of administration you're talking about?

The franchise was a solely memberstate level - prussian - affair.
The Oktober reforms were a solely realms level affairs (maybe aside the position of the chancellor as being/having to be prussian Ministerpresident).

Therefore:
on prussian state level I would well agree with you.

After the change of the franchise it might take sometime to reform the prussian constitution further. But I could see some 'constitutional issues' rather quickly be brought on the agenda with a likely SPD majority of the Landtag given the relative concentration of voters in the more SPD leaning industrial metropole regions of Berlin and the Rheinland. ... or at least SPD + Progressives majority ;-).​

​

on realms level the reforms in 1918 would be very similar to OTL Oktoberreform

- members of the parties of the Reichstag being able to become State Secretary AND keep their Reichstag-mandate (since spring 1918 politicians as Erzberger, (Zentrum), Haußmann (Progressive peoplle's party) or even SPD Scheidemann became 'acting as' State Secretaries)​

- the necessity of the Reichsrat AND Reichstag approval regarding declaring war and making peace​

- the responsibility of the Chancellor before the Reichstag​

were IMHO well in the cards in some summer/autumn reforms ITTL given their development IOTL already IOTL.​

And in ITTL with the 'better' undertsanding with the militaries even more probable; perhaps even widend with an IOTL forgotten (?) responsibility of the State Secrtaries before the Reichstag as well.​

As said: such deliberations and 'exchanges' took already place before the 3rd OHL was implemented.​

​

The one point very likeley NOT going through ITTL might be the control of the Kaiser regarding retirement and appointment by the necessity of their countersigning by the chancellor and the according war ministers of the memberstates.​

They would be agreed upon already before the end of the war. And given the ITTL as marked war-weariness of the polulace nobody would be wanting or in the position (of blindness to said populace as i.e. Ludendorff sported) to take them back.

 

[Riain]

... what level of administration you're talking about?

The franchise was a solely memberstate level - prussian - affair.
The Oktober reforms were a solely realms level affairs (maybe aside the position of the chancellor as being/having to be prussian Ministerpresident).

Therefore:
on prussian state level I would well agree with you.

After the change of the franchise it might take sometime to reform the prussian constitution further. But I could see some 'constitutional issues' rather quickly be brought on the agenda with a likely SPD majority of the Landtag given the relative concentration of voters in the more SPD leaning industrial metropole regions of Berlin and the Rheinland. ... or at least SPD + Progressives majority ;-).​

​

on realms level the reforms in 1918 would be very similar to OTL Oktoberreform

- members of the parties of the Reichstag being able to become State Secretary AND keep their Reichstag-mandate (since spring 1918 politicians as Erzberger, (Zentrum), Haußmann (Progressive peoplle's party) or even SPD Scheidemann became 'acting as' State Secretaries)​

- the necessity of the Reichsrat AND Reichstag approval regarding declaring war and making peace​

- the responsibility of the Chancellor before the Reichstag​

were IMHO well in the cards in some summer/autumn reforms ITTL given their development IOTL already IOTL.​

And in ITTL with the 'better' undertsanding with the militaries even more probable; perhaps even widend with an IOTL forgotten (?) responsibility of the State Secrtaries before the Reichstag as well.​

As said: such deliberations and 'exchanges' took already place before the 3rd OHL was implemented.​

​

The one point very likeley NOT going through ITTL might be the control of the Kaiser regarding retirement and appointment by the necessity of their countersigning by the chancellor and the according war ministers of the memberstates.​

They would be agreed upon already before the end of the war. And given the ITTL as marked war-weariness of the polulace nobody would be wanting or in the position (of blindness to said populace as i.e. Ludendorff sported) to take them back.

Prussia's position in the Imperial Federation is unlike that of any other constituent state in other Federations I know.

17 of 58 seats in the Bundesrat, 2/3 of the land area, 3/5 of the population and a constitution that meant the King of Prussia, the Prussian Minister President and various Prussian State Secretaries make up the Imperial Government. Prussia is more uniquely 'national' the way NSW in Australia or New York State and/or California in the USA are not, therefore reform in Prussia has a 'national' impact.