Post-WWII Punishments for Possible Axis Powers

Oftentimes threads will ask how World War II would have gone differently if a particular country had joined the Axis rather than staying neutral or joining the Allies. However, at the end of the day, no plausible extra Axis member would have been likely to change the course of the war so decisively that the Axis wins, particularly if the USA still joins the Allies (the only possible exception to this last statement is the Soviet Union, which is another can of worms entirely). So, given that Germany, Italy and Japan all lost a substantial amount of territory in the aftermath of World War II, what are similar territorial losses that could have happened for any other potential Axis members? Below is a list of some candidates I've seen mentioned on this forum (some admittedly far more likely than others).

Spain: Loss of all overseas colonies? Spanish Morocco (including Ceuta and Melilla) goes to France? Independence for the Basques and/or Catalonia? Could Spain lose any European territory to France or maybe Portugal, if the latter country doesn't join the Axis?

Portugal: Can't think of any European losses that could be imposed on it, but they could certainly lose their overseas empire. For instance, Goa would go to British India, and thus independent India within a few years of the war. I guess there could be some question as to what happens to their big colonies, like Angola and Mozambique. They'd probably be occupied by the British and the South Africans and then go through a period of UN trusteeship before independence, but might South Africa have any interest in continuing to rule those countries as they did present-day Namibia after Germany lost the territory in WWI?

Turkey: How far could the Allies go with territorial losses on an Axis Turkey, given the genocide, ethnic cleansing and population exchanges twenty years before the war? Despite a dearth of Greeks living there anymore, would the Allies give Turkish Thrace to that country? Maybe even Smyrna and its environs as well? Maybe Stalin would insist on Wilsonian borders for Soviet Armenia? Would Istanbul go the USSR, or at least become an independent city? What other gains could the Soviets potentially make? I imagine the Kurds would get an independent state after the war, but would French Syria also make gains at Turkey's expense as well?

Argentina: (Maybe not a full Axis member, but I've seen it suggested that Argentina could essentially become an Axis cobelligerent by trying to invade the Falklands in 1941 - and that this would certainly be a bad move for the country.) What losses could be inflicted on Argentina? Lands lost to Chile? Uruguay? Maybe some islands or whatnot to Britain?

Anyway, are there any other remotely plausible extra Axis states you can think of in Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, or elsewhere? If so, what are likely territorial losses for them after WWII?
 
Spain would lost Canaries and all other African territories. But I don't believe that it would lost anything in Europe. Portugal and France hardly want anything from Spain and hardly anyone is too intrested to support independence of minority peoples. Speciality France surely is not willingful accept that when it has its own minorities.

Portugal would lost all of its oversea regions, even Azores and Maideira.

Iran might be divided between influence spheres of United Kingdom and USSR. Perhaps it lost all of its Azeri regions.
 

Zagan

Donor
Spain would lost Canaries and all other African territories. But I don't believe that it would lost anything in Europe. Portugal and France hardly want anything from Spain and hardly anyone is too intrested to support independence of minority peoples. Speciality France surely is not willingful accept that when it has its own minorities.
Oh but yes! Olivença!
 
As far as Turkey goes loss of part of Thrace and demilitarization of that remaining area is possible. Internationalization of the Straits might be on the table, but by the time this might happen I can't see the US and the UK wanting the Russians involved so not internationalizing will probably be the result. To the exstent that the USSR takes any Turkish territory, consider that a loss and added to Armenia. Smyrna, not happening - not unless the Allies are willing to expel most of the population and let Greeks move in.
 
I think Spain would have to give up its sunny islands to the UK, it would also have to handover the Costa del Sol. Portugal would forfeit the Algarve. Argentina would face full annexation.
 
Iran might be divided between influence spheres of United Kingdom and USSR. Perhaps it lost all of its Azeri regions.
They could also lost Khuzestan and maybe the Kurdish areas to Iraq along with Baluchistan to Pakistan
 
As noted in this thread, the Soviets did have territorial claims against Turkey during this time period.

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So not only would the Armenians gain land, but the Georgians would as well. As @Lalli notes, if the Iranians declare for the Axis, it is very likely that the Azeris would gain territory after the war as well.

Smyrna, not happening - not unless the Allies are willing to expel most of the population and let Greeks move in.

I mean, that's what happened to Stettin after the war.

By whom and who even would want such nation?

Yeah, I think the absolutely most harsh thing that happens to Argentina is that the might lose a chunk of some of the very most southern Patagonian land (mostly uninhabited) to the British, in addition to some losses to their Latin American neighbors. Loss of statehood wouldn't happen.
 
Another potential wrinkle: if Portugal is a member of the Axis, the Allies will certainly cede Macau to China after the war. That is, Chiang Kai-Shek's China. Is there any reason to suspect that the ROC will be able to hold Macau against the PRC? Seems doubtful, because they couldn't even keep Hainan IOTL. Heck, is there any organic reason to suspect that the PRC's success would be even somewhat blunted after a WWII with an expanded Axis?
 
All of it to the UK, a preemptive move if you will :)

Even occupying of the nation is difficult enough. There is not way how Brits or even Americans could conquer and annex that and they hardly even want that. It is about so realistic idea as suggestiont to divide Germany between its neighbors.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
I think Spain would have to give up its sunny islands to the UK, it would also have to handover the Costa del Sol. Portugal would forfeit the Algarve. Argentina would face full annexation.
Who would Portugal and Spain be giving these integral parts of their nations to?
Absolutely ridiculous suggestion.
 
Bulgaria could lose the land it gained after the war. Failing that, pre-war Bulgaria was pretty compact, so I can't see it getting much worse than 1939 borders.

Unless it gets folded into Yugoslavia, which I doubt is possible
 
Who would Portugal and Spain be giving these integral parts of their nations to?
Absolutely ridiculous suggestion.

You need to look at the bigger picture.

Britain needs those places desperately, it will help with the balance of payments when British tourists want to go somewhere sunny.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
You need to look at the bigger picture.

Britain needs those places desperately, it will help with the balance of payments when British tourists want to go somewhere sunny.
Bigger picture is that in the 1940s that wasn't the case nor was it forseen. Britain taking mainland territory in either place wasn't happening.
 
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