Post-WW1 division of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by BigBlueBox, Dec 6, 2018.

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How would Bosnia and Herzegovina be divided?

  1. Use pre-existing kreise: Serbs get Banjaluka, Donja Tuzla, and Sarajevo while Croats get the rest

    2 vote(s)
    50.0%
  2. Same as the first choice, but Serbs also get the bezirke of Travnik, Zenica, and Zepce

    2 vote(s)
    50.0%
  3. Same as the second, but Serbs get some of Mostar and/or Bihac

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Serbs only get the kreise of Banjaluka and Donja Tuzla, Croats get everything else

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Same as above but Serbs don't even get entirety of Banjaluka and Donja Tuzla

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Use rivers: Serbs get everything east of the Vrbas and Neretya river

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Use rivers: Serbs get everything east of the Sana and Neretva river

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Other (Please explain)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. BigBlueBox Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2017
    Location:
    Southern California
    Let's say that at the end of World War 1, there is no Yugoslavia and Serbia doesn't get Slovenia or Croatia. Maybe this is because the Entente decides that Yugoslavia is a bad idea and Croatia should be independent, or Austria-Hungary has a separate peace earlier in the war and somehow manages to stick together and becomes Trialist. The PoD isn't the main issue here. The question is: How would Bosnia and Herzegovina be divided between the Serbs and Croats? Let's assume that the Entente gives some weight to the notion of self-determination, but also values nice borders, balance of power, and geopolitics. Let's also assume that while the Entente ideally wants borders that will promote longstanding peace and stability without provoking Croat irredentism, it leans in favor of the Serbs; the Entente also doesn't care much what Muslim Bosniaks want. How would the border being Greater Serbia and the Croat state be drawn? Serbia is still uniting with Montenegro it doesn't need to get coastal access from Bosnia and Herzegovina, but would still appreciate it anyways.
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    I've attached the following two maps. The first is a geographic map of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the second is an administrative map of Bosnia and Herzegovina while it was under A-H rule. The borders of the A-H administrative units were copied from the Ottomans. The bold black lines represent kreise, the lighter grey lines represent bezirke. It seems that the southern part of the Mostar kreise became part of SR Croatia and independent Croatia OTL, but that doesn't necessarily have to happen TTL.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
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  2. Catspoke Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2005
    Assuming we go Wilsonian couldn't we just have elections for the locals to decide:

    a) Serbia
    b) Croatia
    c) Independent

    Then fudge the boundaries for geographic realities. I would suspect the bezirke adjacent to Serbia would probably end up with Serbia. While the rest would end up independent to decide.

    Question: Would the substantial muslim population prefer Croatia or Serbia?
     
  3. Koprulu Mustafa Pasha Sadrazam of the Roman Empire

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2017
    Location:
    Sarajevo
    Serbs get everything, with or without a treaty. The army will be there anyway and I don't see Croatia keeping the Serbs away when A-H falls apart (unless the Bosnian Muslims overwhelmingly support Croatia). I can't see the allies intervening in favor Croatia when there is more region to intervene.

    It would be surprising for Serbia not even trying to get Krajina back.
     
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  4. Halagaz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2013
    Location:
    Best Moesia
    42 of the 54 counties of Bosnia-Herzegovina declared themselves annexed to the Kingdom of Serbia in 1918. So if someone was particularly interested in enforcing Wilsonian principles, you could go by county-level administrative divisions and give the other 12 counties to Croatia (they were all in the southwest anyway, IIRC).
     
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