Post war treatment of France if Vichy joins the Axis

say Vichy France join the Axis after the attack on Mers-el-Kébir following retaliation and escalated from there.

How would this impact the post-war treatment of France

Would France be forced to grant independence to Indo-China

Would it be denied a seat on permanent security council or an occupation zone in Germany
 
Would it be denied a seat on permanent security council or an occupation zone in Germany

Of all things, why would France be given these things if it went with the Axis? Remember that early on, Vichy was the legittimate government of France and De Gaulle only an English puppet. Of course you could have a stronger reaction by Free French forces, but overall diplomatic standing will be hurt by this.
 
These 'Vichy Joins the Axis' always seem to assume the French population and leadership, both in and outside the Metropole, act cohesively. Between rabid Germanophobes and leftists of every degree there is going to be a huge portion of the population and leaders who are simply not going to follow. Petain held together a fragile coalition through his neutrality & peace policy. Thats out the window from the start of a Axis alliance policy as the anti Germans tale umbrage. OTL that lot were restless even with the neutrality policy. Also OTL Petain lost the left when the USSR was attacked. The Communists were the most active, but the other shades of red were decreasingly happy and cooperative. OTL Petains coalition fell apart by the end of 1942. He and the collaborationists retained the fiction of power through German backing. From late 1942 France was fighting a civil war & without the offices of the Gestapo and Wehrmacht Laval & the other outnumbered collaborationists would have been shot sooner rather than later.

Note how the Germans felt forced to disarm the residual French army in November 1942. When Operations TORCH was started a significant number of senior French army commanders began preparing to fight the Axis, not the Allies as the Armistice required. The best the Germans could hope for in support from the French Army was a sullen neutrality. Even the best pro Axis or anti Allied commanders like Nougues threw in the towel after a few days and opened negotiations with the Allies. The pro Axis commander of the Bizerte garrison when flooded with German and Italian reinforcements could not bring his men to fight the Allies & had to let the Axis 'reinforcements' disarm the garrison. A German attempt to rally Frenchmen to fight the Allied invaders resulted in a single company of men willing to fight. A similar effort to mobilize anti Communists to fight the Bolshevik menace in the east could barely support a single infantry division over two years of effort.

A few other points: The economic well being of Armistice France depended in part on the willingness of the US to allow continued imports of food and petroleum to France and French colonies. Then there was the continuation of purchases of French raw materials & other goods, mostly from the colonies. While nothing like the prewar trade this residual business did help France and its empire to cripple on a couple more years. If France becomes a active Axis ally it would have been subject to all the trade restrictions, official and underhanded the Roosevelt administration tormented Germany & Italy with. Politically Roosevelt ignored the Free French for near three years while working with Petains neutral government. As soon as France goes Axis thats over & the US will be taking applications for Free French leadership. Forget the DeGaulle vs anyone else debate. Whoever takes the leadership slots would be leading a much more robust organization by mid 1942, or earlier.

If you want a Axis wank you can go ahead and add in a solidly Collaborationist France. It makes for a nice Axis & Allies variant. Otherwise read up a bit on how the French actually laid their money down 1941-43.

As I said, there would still be problems; one does not simply ignore the fact that the Metropole actively fought on the Nazi side.

Technically the Metrople remained neutral 1943-44, but in practical terms the collaborationist government of Laval ect... were on the German side. They just could not find a army to fight with or the wherewithal to sustain it. The Charlemagne Divison depended on German succor & withered for lack of volunteers to replace casualties. The Milcie had to recruit out of work teenagers to fill its ranks, and vaporized when threatened.
 
These 'Vichy Joins the Axis' always seem to assume the French population and leadership, both in and outside the Metropole, act cohesively. Between rabid Germanophobes and leftists of every degree there is going to be a huge portion of the population and leaders who are simply not going to follow. Petain held together a fragile coalition through his neutrality & peace policy. Thats out the window from the start of a Axis alliance policy as the anti Germans tale umbrage. OTL that lot were restless even with the neutrality policy. Also OTL Petain lost the left when the USSR was attacked. The Communists were the most active, but the other shades of red were decreasingly happy and cooperative. OTL Petains coalition fell apart by the end of 1942. He and the collaborationists retained the fiction of power through German backing. From late 1942 France was fighting a civil war & without the offices of the Gestapo and Wehrmacht Laval & the other outnumbered collaborationists would have been shot sooner rather than later.

Note how the Germans felt forced to disarm the residual French army in November 1942. When Operations TORCH was started a significant number of senior French army commanders began preparing to fight the Axis, not the Allies as the Armistice required. The best the Germans could hope for in support from the French Army was a sullen neutrality. Even the best pro Axis or anti Allied commanders like Nougues threw in the towel after a few days and opened negotiations with the Allies. The pro Axis commander of the Bizerte garrison when flooded with German and Italian reinforcements could not bring his men to fight the Allies & had to let the Axis 'reinforcements' disarm the garrison. A German attempt to rally Frenchmen to fight the Allied invaders resulted in a single company of men willing to fight. A similar effort to mobilize anti Communists to fight the Bolshevik menace in the east could barely support a single infantry division over two years of effort.

A few other points: The economic well being of Armistice France depended in part on the willingness of the US to allow continued imports of food and petroleum to France and French colonies. Then there was the continuation of purchases of French raw materials & other goods, mostly from the colonies. While nothing like the prewar trade this residual business did help France and its empire to cripple on a couple more years. If France becomes a active Axis ally it would have been subject to all the trade restrictions, official and underhanded the Roosevelt administration tormented Germany & Italy with. Politically Roosevelt ignored the Free French for near three years while working with Petains neutral government. As soon as France goes Axis thats over & the US will be taking applications for Free French leadership. Forget the DeGaulle vs anyone else debate. Whoever takes the leadership slots would be leading a much more robust organization by mid 1942, or earlier.

*disclaimer* do not think either side of equation wanted Vichy France in the Axis

what would Petain's position be if Germany had started to with draw from some areas, most importantly Paris? occupied up to a (reoriented) Maginot Line and (probably) kept Nord Pas-de-Calais for leverage?

and as you have pointed out before, dealing away Indochina ruined any robust collaboration?
 
Top