Post-war imdustry in a Southern victory TL

So how would industry fair in a post-war North America had the South managed a victory? I can't imagine the Gilded Age is quite as gilded with two seperate, presumably capitalist (and presumably enemy) nations competing with each other. So I want to ask about a few industry in particular.

1.) Oil Industry: Spindletop was a boon for Rockefeller, but imagine it being in a totally seperate nation? On one end, Rockefeller keeps his dominance over the US oil market, but on the other, a new Southern oil industry means a foreign country competing for dominance in the blossiming global market. Does JDR still make his billion? Are any new super-rich oil tycaoons coming out of the Southern market? Any oil wars in the future? What would the price lf oil look like? Etc.

2.) Arms Manufacturing: This industry takes on a whole new importance in this scenario. I mean, there's an enemy nation literally right across the border! Winchester, Smith & Wesson, Remington and Colt are all Northern based companies, so the South has got A LOT of catching up to do. How do they (the South) handle said catching up? And how fast does war tech advance in this ATL? I imagine a lot of tech would show up faster with the constant need to gain an advantage over the enemy nation. Things like tanks, warplanes, battleships and machine guns.

3.) Railroad Industry: So the Vanderbuilts are like the richest people on the planet at this time. And in OTL, they got a hell of a lot richer. Does that still happen? I imagine not. Presumably, a Southern railroad company has to emerge to connect the East and West sides of the nations. Maybe another already established moneyman like Wade Hampton makes a new company, a la Corneillius Vanderbuilt? Would the companies ever work with each other on international railroads? And so on.

4.) Farming: So my thinking here goes like this. The vast majority of the Union's agricultural land just up and left, and the midwest land is filled with enemy tribes and possibly enemy faiths (LDS). The North seems to have the same "catching up" probably here as the south does in most of these other industries. And defeating the peoples on the replacement land may be a lot harder with half the country missing and hostile. How is the North going to handle this?

Other industries that come to mind are education, steel, automotive, medical and banking.

So what is the fate of industry in this new, divided world?
 
Spindletop was discovered by a guy from Ohio who continued to look for oil in the bordering parishes of Louisiana despite just about every local telling him there was none to be found. Odds are, Spindletop at the very least is going be discovered later than OTL.

Victory in the Civil War means the South will be sticking with the old south. Even with the New South's semi-embrace of northern economic norms, the region didn't really start to industrialize until a few decades into the 20th century. The Planterocracy opposed industrialization and public investment into industry-related infrastructure and railroads. Most planters lived fairly close to rivers, so why did they need rail?

There was some talk of building up industry in the Birmingham area pre-war, but local plantocrats nixed that because they didn't want the state investing in it and didn't want an industrial class that could compete with them for political influence.

The Vice President of the Confederacy thought they should consider enslaving poor whites (who planters often deemed lazier and more mischievous than their slaves!). Considering how the planterocracy viewed itself as a modern continuation of feudal nobility, and that many many whites go involved in sharecropping OTL, odds are the governments (state) would push for many yeomen to end up as sharecroppers. Though sharecropping was mostly a post-war thing, sharecropping had already started in Mississippi - particularly in the northeast of the state where there weren't many slaves or plantations.

Controlling poor whites would be very very important in the CSA. With freedom for slaves now being just across the Tennessee River (if the union keeps Tennessee, which I think it would) or Cumberland River (if it doesn't keep Tennessee), the south will likely step up resources directed towards slave patrols (which often involved conscripting whites into service).



Also, let's look at one of the big differences between the US and Confederate Constitutions:

Article 1, Section 8, subsection 3. To regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian tribes; but neither this, nor any other clause contained in the Constitution, shall ever be construed to delegate the power to Congress to appropriate money for any internal improvement intended to facilitate commerce; except for the purpose of furnishing lights, beacons, and buoys, and other aids to navigation upon the coasts, and the improvement of harbors and the removing of obstructions in river navigation; in all which cases such duties shall be laid on the navigation facilitated thereby as may be necessary to pay the costs and expenses thereof.


The Confederate Constitution straight-up banned the federal government investing in the economy outside of maintaining maritime navigation.
Also (not mentioned) is that Confederate States were allowed to impose duties on the use of their waterways AND that the Federal Government was allowed to impose on tariffs on states exported goods (which I'm pretty sure meant "exported out of the state" rather than out of the country...). The Constitution also banned protectionist import tariffs (although flat external revenue-raising ones were okay). All in all, this is not a constitution in which industrialization will be promoted.

If the Confederate Congress wants to get around the constitutional limitations on internal improvements, I imagine the federal government can use a defense-based justification. "Hey we totally need to build railroads between these two economic hubs because in the case of a war we will need to move supplies around, and this has nothing to do with promoting the economy" - that sort of thing. This could potentially cover investing in war industries (arms, etc) as well.


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Also, the idea that the north is going to have to catch up with the south agriculturally is just very very very wrong. Southern farming was either based around commodity-export (cotton and tobacco) or was yeomen doing subsistence farming. Southern farmers did not invest in their farms for the capitalist economy, whereas northern farms were. Many observers at the time noticed the distinction between farms in Ohio/Indiana and Kentucky - right next door yet one side was productive and organized whereas the other wasn't.

One factor that influenced the British during the civil war was that the country was suffering from food shortages that year (bad crop yields + growing urbanization) and northern corn and wheat ended up being far more important at the time than southern cotton.






If the CSA wins the war, odds are the politics of the south will be changed by the war (as they were OTL). The Confederate Government got pretty into building railroads and industrializing for the purpose of fighting the war, but with the war over odds are the planters will push back against the defense-minded folks.

I imagine Confederate politics will gradually meld into Tenant Farmers + Defense-Industrialists vs Planterocracy.
 
Honestly, the CSA will likely list onwards for 10-20 years before some general from their "Second American Revolution" coups the government using a base of poor whites and industrialists and even free blacks. The "New South" types have key inspiration in Britain and the North, while the poor whites already have their problems with the tenant farmers. At this point, they might be persuaded that the industry the "New South" types will bring will benefit them--they'll keep their independence and freedom (since this will strengthen the CSA against the vengeful Yankees) and they'll have easier lives in the factories than under their landlords (this part they'll quickly find out otherwise).

So how would industry fair in a post-war North America had the South managed a victory? I can't imagine the Gilded Age is quite as gilded with two seperate, presumably capitalist (and presumably enemy) nations competing with each other. So I want to ask about a few industry in particular.

1.) Oil Industry: Spindletop was a boon for Rockefeller, but imagine it being in a totally seperate nation? On one end, Rockefeller keeps his dominance over the US oil market, but on the other, a new Southern oil industry means a foreign country competing for dominance in the blossiming global market. Does JDR still make his billion? Are any new super-rich oil tycaoons coming out of the Southern market? Any oil wars in the future? What would the price lf oil look like? Etc.

The US produced a huge amount of oil (almost 2/3 of the world in the early 20th century) but without Texas and Oklahoma (I'd love to see how CSA Oklahoma/"Indian Territory" looks) that amount is rather less. Still, with Pennsylvania, Ohio, and California, the US is in pretty good shape. Weaker CSA industry and capitalism means its own oil will be exploited a bit later, but I'd expect that the British will make up for it to some degree. The CSA will be a key international oil producer and will rely heavily on oil (but will still have a solid agrarian industry and some steel/other heavy industry).

The need for defense against the CSA and their allies (they will have allies, they won't survive without them) will strengthen the US military at the cost of increasing spending toward that which will be detrimental to the rest of the economy, but pretty much cement the US as a Great Power.

2.) Arms Manufacturing: This industry takes on a whole new importance in this scenario. I mean, there's an enemy nation literally right across the border! Winchester, Smith & Wesson, Remington and Colt are all Northern based companies, so the South has got A LOT of catching up to do. How do they (the South) handle said catching up? And how fast does war tech advance in this ATL? I imagine a lot of tech would show up faster with the constant need to gain an advantage over the enemy nation. Things like tanks, warplanes, battleships and machine guns.

The South will likely do anything they can, but will rely on foreign powers like Britain and France to help them. In the long term, I expect domestic events will lead to some crash industrialisation which will establish arms manufacturing near where the resources are (iron in Appalachia, saltpeter in Tennessee, etc.). Nashville, Chattanooga, Atlanta, and Birmingham will be key cities for the CSA.

Expect a weaker blue-water navy from the US but a stronger brown water navy. River warfare will take on whole new dimensions TTL. The Tennessee, Cumberland, and especially the Mississippi are key international waterways, and both sides remember the intense fighting on the rivers. The CSA in particular knows they can't challenge the US on the high seas, but they can challenge the US on the rivers. River warfare development will accelerate TTL. Both sides will devote a lot of resources toward their river boats, some of which will spill over into their navy in general (more torpedo boats since those can float on rivers, more coastal monitors, etc.). Smaller European nations like Romania will be sure to take advantage of this (OTL Romania devoted a huge amount of resources toward their Danube fleet), in addition to other European nations (Austria-Hungary, Russia, etc.) and beyond (certainly the Qing might like a solid river monitor to shoot at bandits/rebels etc., and it just so happens that Americans both Northerners and Southerners were active there, not to mention lesser Latin American nations). I'd expect riverine warfare to be more advanced TTL, but not too much so--it will follow the general trends in naval warfare.

3.) Railroad Industry: So the Vanderbuilts are like the richest people on the planet at this time. And in OTL, they got a hell of a lot richer. Does that still happen? I imagine not. Presumably, a Southern railroad company has to emerge to connect the East and West sides of the nations. Maybe another already established moneyman like Wade Hampton makes a new company, a la Corneillius Vanderbuilt? Would the companies ever work with each other on international railroads? And so on.

They sure do. The South needs more railroads.

4.) Farming: So my thinking here goes like this. The vast majority of the Union's agricultural land just up and left, and the midwest land is filled with enemy tribes and possibly enemy faiths (LDS). The North seems to have the same "catching up" probably here as the south does in most of these other industries. And defeating the peoples on the replacement land may be a lot harder with half the country missing and hostile. How is the North going to handle this?

No, they still have the Midwest and the Plains, the Midwest where the American Indians have long since been defeated and the Plains where they already were facing setbacks in the 1850s. More US Army funding (to counter the CSA) means the Plains Indians (and other Indians not yet subdued) are going down quicker. The Mormons won't be much of a problem either, they'll probably follow the path of OTL Utah Territory.

Other industries that come to mind are education, steel, automotive, medical and banking.

So what is the fate of industry in this new, divided world?

The South has solid education as it is, and given the funding can have solid education for even freed slaves (sadly this won't happen for a while). As for steel, they have Birmingham and Big Stone Gap (which would be part of a Quad Cities areas with OTL's "Tri-Cities" in TN-VA). Medical and banking, I'm not sure--the CSA will have foreign support, guaranteed, to help with this.

Controlling poor whites would be very very important in the CSA. With freedom for slaves now being just across the Tennessee River (if the union keeps Tennessee, which I think it would) or Cumberland River (if it doesn't keep Tennessee), the south will likely step up resources directed towards slave patrols (which often involved conscripting whites into service).

If Tennessee is lost then I don't imagine the CSA will do very well. It was a keystone for the CSA and had the second highest population of any state which joined the CSA. Without Tennessee it's a quick trip down the Tennessee River and into the Deep South and to Birmingham and the coast.

The Cumberland River wouldn't be too hard to police. Just put a Confederate Navy squadron there (since it's an international river) plus marine police (could be a Tennessee state unit, otherwise it would be under county control) to stop slave escapes. North of the Cumberland in Tennessee is flat, agrarian land before the freedom in Kentucky.
 
3.) Railroad Industry: So the Vanderbuilts are like the richest people on the planet at this time. And in OTL, they got a hell of a lot richer. Does that still happen? I imagine not. Presumably, a Southern railroad company has to emerge to connect the East and West sides of the nations

Most Southern RRs used 5' Rail Gauge rather than 4'8" like most everywhere else on the planet.
Texans, of course, had to be different, and by law their RRs had to be 5'6"

in 1861 there was 21,300 miles of rail in the Northeast and Midwest while the Confederacy had 9,022 miles. During the war years, the Union rolled 220,000 pounds of paired rail a year, the CSA did 26,000

A far southern Transcontinental route won't be too hard, if the South had the industrial capacity and financing that the Union had, and depending on who holds New Mexico and Arizona
US_Pacific_Railroads_1887.jpg
 
4.) Farming: So my thinking here goes like this. The vast majority of the Union's agricultural land just up and left, and the midwest land is filled with enemy tribes and possibly enemy faiths (LDS). The North seems to have the same "catching up" probably here as the south does in most of these other industries. And defeating the peoples on the replacement land may be a lot harder with half the country missing and hostile. How is the North going to handle this?
Hmm.
2077.gif

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These maps are from 1910 for Corn, and 1897 for Wheat and Potatoes.
I think the South will have a far higher problem with foodstuffs than the North
 
Hmm.
2077.gif

2627.gif

2628.gif

These maps are from 1910 for Corn, and 1897 for Wheat and Potatoes.
I think the South will have a far higher problem with foodstuffs than the North

I was unaware of the dramatic lack of foodstuffs produced in the South.

Presumably, that would have to change though, right? I mean out of necessity, the CSA can't survive if it can't produce it's own agriculture, right?
 
The withdrawal of the south from the union would also mean a sharp decline in the African-American population in the north. These poor sharecroppers would often move north in order to see greater economic prosperity, equality, and freedom. Because of their rather desperate attempts to get out of the desperate of the oppressive Jim Crow south, African-American workers would often work for almost nothing. Many large trusts and monopolies, like the railroad and steel industries, would often hire these workers during a large strike due to unions. The lack of a "safety valve" would no doubt lead to the greater success of unions as a whole as there aren't many white workers willing to work for such low wages, especially when unions themselves segregated and therefore catered to a larger group of whites. if the Chinese Exclusion Act were to still come into play in tandem with the increased restrictions on both Eastern and Southern europeans as well as Russian Jews, this would only harm industry more as another hard-working cheap worker had been cut out of the equation. Unionization and its success would either provoke a larger response from the government, with many Haymarket Square's taking place, or powerful unions and subsequent union busters, instead of trust busters, could take their place as the protector of American industrial expansion, coinciding with an early Progressive Era. Either way industry would be hampered by the lack of desperate souls to exploit.
Also, without the African-American reputation as a traitor to the cause of the poor worker, a greater amount of sympathy could be garnered for Southern Blacks, as the Great Migration did more harm then good in terms of race relations. Especially is slavery is still a thing, although I can't imagine the south would be able to hold back the tide of progress in terms of the peculiar institution as it was one of the main reasons that the Europeans didn't rush to southern aid during OTL Civil War. This itself would probably lead to another war between the states over black rights as the early 20th century dawns, if some major event such as a massacre of rebellious slaves or something of the like. Though a less industrially strong north would have a much harder time conquering the South, probably similar to the first war.
 
I was unaware of the dramatic lack of foodstuffs produced in the South.

Presumably, that would have to change though, right? I mean out of necessity, the CSA can't survive if it can't produce it's own agriculture, right?
Current production information

Alabama—peanuts (USDA)
About half of the peanuts grown in the United States are consumed in the form of peanut butter, and about that amount are all grown within a 100-mile radius of Dothan, Alabama. Other top crops include pecans and cucumbers.

Arkansas—rice (USDA)
Arkansas is the top rice producer in the U.S., and 96 percent of the 2,500 rice farms are family owned. Arkansas also ranks third for poultry and egg production, and fourth for cotton.

Florida—oranges (USDA)
The sandy soil and subtropical climate of Florida is perfect for growing oranges. Many of today’s trees are descendants of the wild orange trees that spread from St. Augustine to Tampa before the 19th century. Tomatoes, melons, cucumbers and peppers are also grown in Florida.


Georgia—peanuts (USDA)
Georgia might be known for its peaches, but that crop actually ranks tenth. The top crop in Georgia is peanuts, followed by watermelons. More than 45 percent of the United States’ peanuts come from the state.

Kentucky—pumpkins (USDA)
Louisville, Kentucky, hosts an annual Jack-O-Lantern Spectacular festival, which features 5,000 carved pumpkins that line a quarter-mile walking trail in a local park. It should be no surprise the home of one of the world’s most famous derbies also leads with the number of horses, ponies, mules, burros and donkeys.


Louisiana—sweet potatoes (USDA)
Beauregard sweet potatoes are the variety mostly grown in Louisiana. Yams were used to brew hot drinks when coffee ran low during the Civil War. The state ranks second in the production of sugarcane for sugar.

Mississippi—sweet potatoes (USDA)
Most of Mississippi’s sweet potato acres are around Vardaman, which hosts an annual week-long celebration called the Sweet Potato Festival. Mississippi also contributes to the peanut supply, producing over 176 million pounds last year.


Missouri—rice (USDA)
Missouri grows mostly long-grain rice, and is the fourth largest rice producer in the United States. The state has increased yield over 62 pounds per acre per year since the 1950s. Melons, peaches, and grapes are also grown in Missouri.

North Carolina—sweet potatoes (USDA)
North Carolina has been the leading sweet potato producing state in the US since 1971. Over 400 growers supply nearly 60 percent of the US supply. North Carolina also produces tomatoes, potatoes, cucumbers, peppers, strawberries, melons, pumpkins, and much more.

Oklahoma—peanuts (USDA)
Most of Oklahoma’s peanuts are grown in the southwest and south central part of the state, and producers raise between 50 and 70 million pounds each year. It’s arid in Oklahoma, so nearly 2/3 of the peanut crops are irrigated.

South Carolina—peanuts (USDA)
The official snack of South Carolina is boiled peanuts, which are celebrated at the annual Bluffton Boiled Peanut Festival every September. The state also produces a lot of watermelons and cantaloupes.

Tennessee—tomatoes (USDA)
East Nashville hosts the Tomato Art Fest every year, to celebrate the fruit. Fairgoers dress in tomato gear and participate in a parade and cooking demonstrations. The state also produces snap beans and pumpkins.


Texas—rice (USDA)
Eighteen counties in the upper Gulf Coast of Texas comprise the Texas Rice Belt, and agriculture has a direct impact on the ecosystems of five the state’s seven river basins. Texas Rice Industry Coalition for the Environment (R.I.C.E.) is a group of rice farmers focused on sustaining natural resources while working in harmony with the environment.

Virginia—apples (USDA)
Virginia offers 15 different apple varieties, including the Ginger Gold cultivar, which was first bred and introduced in Virginia in the 1960s. The state also produces apples, peaches, grapes, pumpkins, and potatoes.


Better hope Southerners like Rice, Sweet Potatoes and Peanuts.
 
Current production information

Alabama—peanuts (USDA)
About half of the peanuts grown in the United States are consumed in the form of peanut butter, and about that amount are all grown within a 100-mile radius of Dothan, Alabama. Other top crops include pecans and cucumbers.

Arkansas—rice (USDA)
Arkansas is the top rice producer in the U.S., and 96 percent of the 2,500 rice farms are family owned. Arkansas also ranks third for poultry and egg production, and fourth for cotton.

Florida—oranges (USDA)
The sandy soil and subtropical climate of Florida is perfect for growing oranges. Many of today’s trees are descendants of the wild orange trees that spread from St. Augustine to Tampa before the 19th century. Tomatoes, melons, cucumbers and peppers are also grown in Florida.


Georgia—peanuts (USDA)
Georgia might be known for its peaches, but that crop actually ranks tenth. The top crop in Georgia is peanuts, followed by watermelons. More than 45 percent of the United States’ peanuts come from the state.

Kentucky—pumpkins (USDA)
Louisville, Kentucky, hosts an annual Jack-O-Lantern Spectacular festival, which features 5,000 carved pumpkins that line a quarter-mile walking trail in a local park. It should be no surprise the home of one of the world’s most famous derbies also leads with the number of horses, ponies, mules, burros and donkeys.


Louisiana—sweet potatoes (USDA)
Beauregard sweet potatoes are the variety mostly grown in Louisiana. Yams were used to brew hot drinks when coffee ran low during the Civil War. The state ranks second in the production of sugarcane for sugar.

Mississippi—sweet potatoes (USDA)
Most of Mississippi’s sweet potato acres are around Vardaman, which hosts an annual week-long celebration called the Sweet Potato Festival. Mississippi also contributes to the peanut supply, producing over 176 million pounds last year.


Missouri—rice (USDA)
Missouri grows mostly long-grain rice, and is the fourth largest rice producer in the United States. The state has increased yield over 62 pounds per acre per year since the 1950s. Melons, peaches, and grapes are also grown in Missouri.

North Carolina—sweet potatoes (USDA)
North Carolina has been the leading sweet potato producing state in the US since 1971. Over 400 growers supply nearly 60 percent of the US supply. North Carolina also produces tomatoes, potatoes, cucumbers, peppers, strawberries, melons, pumpkins, and much more.

Oklahoma—peanuts (USDA)
Most of Oklahoma’s peanuts are grown in the southwest and south central part of the state, and producers raise between 50 and 70 million pounds each year. It’s arid in Oklahoma, so nearly 2/3 of the peanut crops are irrigated.

South Carolina—peanuts (USDA)
The official snack of South Carolina is boiled peanuts, which are celebrated at the annual Bluffton Boiled Peanut Festival every September. The state also produces a lot of watermelons and cantaloupes.

Tennessee—tomatoes (USDA)
East Nashville hosts the Tomato Art Fest every year, to celebrate the fruit. Fairgoers dress in tomato gear and participate in a parade and cooking demonstrations. The state also produces snap beans and pumpkins.


Texas—rice (USDA)
Eighteen counties in the upper Gulf Coast of Texas comprise the Texas Rice Belt, and agriculture has a direct impact on the ecosystems of five the state’s seven river basins. Texas Rice Industry Coalition for the Environment (R.I.C.E.) is a group of rice farmers focused on sustaining natural resources while working in harmony with the environment.

Virginia—apples (USDA)
Virginia offers 15 different apple varieties, including the Ginger Gold cultivar, which was first bred and introduced in Virginia in the 1960s. The state also produces apples, peaches, grapes, pumpkins, and potatoes.


Better hope Southerners like Rice, Sweet Potatoes and Peanuts.


The southerners won't have any Sweet Potatoes and Peanuts without George Washington Carver working out of Tuskeegee. Tuskeegee was founded by Booker T Washington (born in Virginia) and Lewis Adams (born in Alabama), both of whom would be slaves TTL. Odds are Carver (whose life from 1864-1896 like would be the same TTL more or less) will remain in Iowa TTL, unless he gets a good offer elsewhere.

So... rice it is!

Heck, without Carver educating southern people on the importance of crop rotation, they may go hungry.
 
I was unaware of the dramatic lack of foodstuffs produced in the South.

Presumably, that would have to change though, right? I mean out of necessity, the CSA can't survive if it can't produce it's own agriculture, right?

Oh,they were producing plenty of food. But the key is it was subsistence farming in large part; the poor white population in the hill country not hooking into the Market Revolution and the slaves obviously not able to generate much demand (this encouraging the plantations to keep a closed/self sufficent economy as possible as well, since the money spent on non-essentials is an instiutional expense rather than a decision made to improve personal quality of life). That was a big issue in terms of retarding production in the South: if the local market is small and producing for sale requires initial investment, high risk, and major changes in ones ones lifestyle, there's not much incentive for folks to put their capital (in sweat or money) and pack up to try to make it in an industrial-urban center. No, better to just stay on the farm.
 
So how would industry fair in a post-war North America had the South managed a victory? I can't imagine the Gilded Age is quite as gilded with two seperate, presumably capitalist (and presumably enemy) nations competing with each other.

The Union blockade provided greater protection for Confederate industry than any tariff. Plus, the post-war Confederate government would not be anywhere near as much more guns, uniforms, boots, tents, etc. for it's army. Combined, I'd expect a lot of Confederate industry to go bankrupt after the war.

Looking at your specifics.

* Oil could be a source of great wealth, but by the time it's discovered, Texas or even the whole TransMississippi might be independent from the Confederacy. Also, the Confederate government trying fund itself on oil revenues could trigger attempted secession from by the TransMississippi. There's also what's called the 'resource curse' - replying too much on a single crop or industry causes economic devastation when the prices fall.

* Arms would be in much smaller demand after the war. I'd expect most of the Confederate arms industry to go bankrupt after the war.

* Confederate railroads had become somewhat ramshackle during the war, due to the heavy wear from the combined military and civilian transportation needs. This did not result in lush profits for the railroads - the Confederate government dictated rates so that the Confederate railroads were operating at a loss. In OTL, northern investors provided the capital needed to recover, plus they standardized rail gauges, which helped commerce. An independent Confederacy would not get anywhere near OTL's levels of investment from the Union. They might get some investment from Britain or France, but those countries would be more interested in resource extraction, which could largely be done using the rivers of the Confederacy.

* As others have noted, the Union had huge amounts of agricultural land. Much of the best agricultural land in the Confederacy was devoted to the cash crops of tobacco and cotton. Plus, both of those crops are hard on the soil, leading to soil exhaustion. Sections of the Confederacy could become dependent on imported food.

Other industries that come to mind are education, steel, automotive, medical and banking.

Public education in the South lagged badly behind the rest of the US, even if we don't count laws that forbade educating the slaves. A lot of northern teachers went south after OTL's Civil War, which won't happen in TTL. I'd expect Confederate gentry to be quite well educated, but families who can't afford tutors will struggle to give their children anything more than a grade school education. Virtually all steel production was in the North, the Confederacy would be unable to compete. Automobiles would be largely limited to rich men's toys without an extensive network of paved roads, which would require the Confederacy overcoming their resistance to "internal improvements". The vast majority of banking and investment capital was in the North.

Another point is how much of the Confederate labor force would be slaves. Confederate industry liked having slave workers, who could not go on strike. They also found that paying the slaves a small amount (far less than what they'd pay what workers) greatly reduced the amount of slaves 'accidentally' breaking machines, tools, and product. This could lead to some very nasty incidents between unemployed poor white whites and the slave workers or factory owners. I'd also expect a lot of Union slave owners to see the writing on the wall and try to sell their slaves to Confederate owners.

It's also just become much easier for a slave to run way. Confederate masters would be able to appeal to the Union Fugitive Slave Law. Escaped slaves no longer have to make it to Canada - they only have to make it to Kentucky, West Virginia, or Missouri (or perhaps even only as far as Tennessee or Arkansas.) In OTL, a lot of Border State masters offered their slaves small wages or a promise of freedom after a number of years of work. This trend would accelerate in an independent Confederacy, though Border State owners might just sell their slaves to the Deep South.

Another consideration is that about 1/7th of the slaves, largely young able-bodied men, fled from the Confederacy during OTL's Civil War. Large numbers of them served in the Union Army. They won't be going back after TTL's war, but they will want to free their wives, children, siblings, and parents.
 
Automobiles would be largely limited to rich men's toys without an extensive network of paved roads, which would require the Confederacy overcoming their resistance to "internal improvements"
In 1914, Iowa was 6th in the Nation for Automobile Registrations, despite most of the population still on Farms. In 1904 Iowa had 102,448 miles of road. Only Missouri and Texas had more miles of road. At that point Iowa had only 1.62 percent of those roads were surfaced with gravel or other materials.

No Roads won't stop Farmers from seeing the advantage of an inexpensive Auto.

Too bad Ford is in Michigan, along with Olds.
 
It all be hampered by states' rights and various internal troubles. Slavery would be made useless in factories and whites angry at Richmond's attempts to use blacks in them. Without OTL's northern investment, the Confederate industry will lag behind OTL in growth. It won't get any form of Immigrants as they all go to the North.

I also talked to @Joshua Ben Ari about this...

The Confederate economy is going to be crippled for decades, their currency was basically worthless, and they had significant war debts that had to be paid; and the already existing Confederate infrastructure was all but unprepared for both civilian and military traffic and it really showed.

The South would be face a massive economic depression soon after Independence.

Worst come to worst Texas bails on Richmond, and takes all the oil, at worst even then, it takes the whole Trans-Mississippi with it.
 
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