Post-USSR Central Asia PoDs

Central Asia is an area that does not get much attention basically by anyone. So I'm creating a thread fir you to list and discuss Central Asian PoDs after 1991 and the collapse of the USSR. Central Asia will be defined as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Then we can discuss Central Asian alternate history. A starting PoD is:

Islam Karimov assassinated in 1999
 
Oh boy, my favorite!

WI Dushanbe was unable to restore control over Gorno-Badakhshan?

WI the Taliban and/or Northern Alliance bled their conflict in Tajikistan?

WI Islam Karimov invaded Afghanistan to back Dostum?

WI Andijan in 2005 had led to a "colour revolution" in Uzbekistan?

WI Tajikistan and Uzbekistan had gone to war over their disputed border/Rogun Dam?

WI Russia intervened in the "Roza Revolution" in Kyrgyzstan?
 
AHC WI: Islamists win Tajik Civil War
AHC: Create a Syria-style civil war in Central Asia

With a colour revolution in Uzbekistan, maybe if the military defects in Andijan rather than massacring the protesters and then more protests and riots erupt. Still a civil war seems more likely to come from that. Perhaps there are mass defections from the army and violent clashes across Uzbekistan and Karimov is forced by international pressure to resign. I could see Uzbekistan working as a democracy, if it got to there.
 
PC & WI: Russo-Kazakh War during Putin's regime?

That is surprsingly plausible, given the large population of Russians in Kazakhstan.
500px-Kazakhstan_Slavic_2010_Rus.png

The darker shade being more than 50% Russian and as it gets lighter the proportion of Russians falls. There might even be more Russians in Kazakhstan than in Ukraine. However, I think the best chance for a war in Kazakhstan is in the 1990s, when Russians were frustrated with the development of the new Kazakhstan, such as making kazakh the official language, when many Russians couldn't speak Kazakh. While Nazarbayev managed to keep tensions under control, it is possible things could have escalated then. In the 2000s and now I think Kazakhstan is more stale and in the Russian bloc.
 
That is surprsingly plausible, given the large population of Russians in Kazakhstan.
500px-Kazakhstan_Slavic_2010_Rus.png

The darker shade being more than 50% Russian and as it gets lighter the proportion of Russians falls. There might even be more Russians in Kazakhstan than in Ukraine. However, I think the best chance for a war in Kazakhstan is in the 1990s, when Russians were frustrated with the development of the new Kazakhstan, such as making kazakh the official language, when many Russians couldn't speak Kazakh. While Nazarbayev managed to keep tensions under control, it is possible things could have escalated then. In the 2000s and now I think Kazakhstan is more stale and in the Russian bloc.

All it would take is for Kazakhstan to drift from the Russian sphere, possiblly to the Chinese side. However, for an actual conflict, Russo-Chinese relations need to remain sour post-Cold War. American-aligned Kazakhstan is far less likely. I don't think anyone there harboured any illusions that the Americans are in the position to reach a landlocked sandbox so deep in Eurasia.
 
All it would take is for Kazakhstan to drift from the Russian sphere, possiblly to the Chinese side. However, for an actual conflict, Russo-Chinese relations need to remain sour post-Cold War. American-aligned Kazakhstan is far less likely. I don't think anyone there harboured any illusions that the Americans are in the position to reach a landlocked sandbox so deep in Eurasia.

Any ideas on how this could go, especially with a war? Maybe if Nazarbayev refused to join Putin's Eurasian Union, Putin might foster tensions in the north and then send in 'local militias' to Kazakhstan? What do you think? Some way for a Russo-Kazakh, or at least kazkh ethnicity vs Russian ethnicity?
 

Ak-84

Banned
Get a POD which brings majnor regiona powers like Pakistan and China to directly interfere in C Asia.
 
If Karakalpakstan/Qoraqalpog'iston didn't get veto power over decisions on an equal footing with Uzbekistan, then we could see political violence as the Karakalpak population sees its autonomy erode away and their concerns ignored by the central government.
 

Pesigalam

Banned
PC & WI: Russo-Kazakh War during Putin's regime?
Any ideas on how this could go, especially with a war? Maybe if Nazarbayev refused to join Putin's Eurasian Union, Putin might foster tensions in the north and then send in 'local militias' to Kazakhstan? What do you think? Some way for a Russo-Kazakh, or at least kazkh ethnicity vs Russian ethnicity?
Just have Astana get overtaken by nationalist groups that carry around portraits of a local Nazi-collaborator & war criminal (so this guy I guess), sing things like "throw Russians on the knives!", overthrow the government by force and put up the Confederate flag and white-power symbols (or Turk-power symbols in this case) in the parliament.

Here are more PoDs:

WI: Yuri Luzhkov's Neo-River-Diversion-Plan Doesn't Fall Through?

WI: The proposed Central Asian Union is actually created?

WI: The Turkic Council is a tighter alliance like the E.U.?
WI Tajikistan and Uzbekistan had gone to war over their disputed border/Rogun Dam?
Along the same lines:

WI: Uzbekistan goes to war with Kyrgyzstan over the Kambarata project?
 
What would the outcome of these wars be? Uzbekistan is more powerful by far than either Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan, so they'd presumably win. What would be the effects? This seems a cool scenario, let's flesh it out some more.
 
What would the outcome of these wars be? Uzbekistan is more powerful by far than either Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan, so they'd presumably win. What would be the effects? This seems a cool scenario, let's flesh it out some more.

Depends when they have it, honestly.

Before 2001, Uzbekistan is stronger than Tajikistan (and had intervened in that country's civil war on behalf of the Russians), but before 2001, there is a whole lot of a reason to intervene in its neighbors.

After 2001, it gets a bit trickier. Uzbekistan became a military powerhouse in the region thanks to NATO support/the K2 base; any offensive against the relatively pro-Russian Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan would likely antagonize Putin's Russia, which would, at the least, send "volunteers" and logistical support to the countries they view as de facto protectorates.
 
Anybody want to make a TL with any of these PoDs? I'd be interested. Especially the war over Kambarata. that could disrupt supply to the war in afghanistan and draw Russian intervention of some kind. Maybe this starts with a shoot-out on the border, Uzbeks and Tajiks blame each other, Karimov sends troops to the border and then it escalates into war from there. What do you think would happen if Kambarata led to war?
 
2010 Kyrgyz Revolution descends into full-fledged civil war

IRP wins Tajik civil war

War over Ferghana: Tajik-Kyrgyz War


Kyrgyz-Uzbek war

Gorno-Badakhshan splits from Tajikistan permanently
 
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