Assuming RVN survives until the fall of Communism, what would presidential politics look like once Thieu's term ended? Another general, a military-affiliated technocrat, someone else?
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Sorry, I was thinking of Diem.IOTL He fled on one of the last planes out and let Minh surrender.
What's the reason South Vietnam didn't fall TTL?
That is the crux of the question. Thieu, as far as I understand, was about as much as South Vietnam could hope for in terms of surviving.
I think there would have to be some upheaval in the Communist world that cuts off or weakens North Vietnam it and the VC cannot wage war against the South's government.
So much depends on the context.
What kind of PoD is going to give you a successfully surviving South Vietnam?
The effects of such a significant change will vary massively, depending on what that change is.
Diem surviving is, IMO, rather unlikely to be sufficient for the task.
Even if it were, how he ruled, whether he stopped persecuting Buddhists, for instance, would have major effects on the outcome.
However, the autocracy of RVN is in fact weaker (less stable) than other SE Asian states, with larger degree of freedom of press (Freedom House, 1974 - 1975). At some point, juntas like Ky might use power of people to oust Thieu.
Using what Emperor Norton did, after a few more years of Thieu(at least a decade) a coup by Ky may not even change things; the Viet Cong was only so successful with North Vietnamese support. There may be a few bumps along the road but otherwise sounds fine.