Post-Thieu South Vietnamese politics

Assuming RVN survives until the fall of Communism, what would presidential politics look like once Thieu's term ended? Another general, a military-affiliated technocrat, someone else?
 
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Some more description would be useful in answering the question. Is the question if Thieu didn't die? I believe he was murdered during his term IOTL.
 
What's the reason South Vietnam didn't fall TTL?

That is the crux of the question. Thieu, as far as I understand, was about as much as South Vietnam could hope for in terms of surviving.

I think there would have to be some upheaval in the Communist world that cuts off or weakens North Vietnam it and the VC cannot wage war against the South's government.

So much depends on the context.
 
That is the crux of the question. Thieu, as far as I understand, was about as much as South Vietnam could hope for in terms of surviving.

I think there would have to be some upheaval in the Communist world that cuts off or weakens North Vietnam it and the VC cannot wage war against the South's government.

So much depends on the context.

Yeah, I guess that could be the POD. Unless Thieu decides to just eliminate term limits and keep going.
 
Like Korea, South Vietnam is going to be a phoney democracy before it becomes a real democracy. That's the best case scenario. At worst, it'll always be a dictatorship.
 
What kind of PoD is going to give you a successfully surviving South Vietnam?

The effects of such a significant change will vary massively, depending on what that change is.

Diem surviving is, IMO, rather unlikely to be sufficient for the task.

Even if it were, how he ruled, whether he stopped persecuting Buddhists, for instance, would have major effects on the outcome.
 
We would need further elaboration on how South Vietnam survives to give you an answer.

As others have said it is likely that it would evolve in a similar fashion as South Korea has in OTL.
 
What kind of PoD is going to give you a successfully surviving South Vietnam?

The effects of such a significant change will vary massively, depending on what that change is.

Diem surviving is, IMO, rather unlikely to be sufficient for the task.

Even if it were, how he ruled, whether he stopped persecuting Buddhists, for instance, would have major effects on the outcome.

It could be something as simple as the politics in Hanoi being different. Hanoi wasn't all rah-rah for reunification by military force. There was the faction, I believe Ho Chi Minh among them and General Giap leading the opposition to it, that was ok with two separate state. Even after all the sound and fury up to the peace treaty of the OTL, it is possible for South Vietnam to have survived. My personal favorite scenario is detente with the Soviets, neutralization of Cuba in exchange for Vietnam, and the South surviving that way. That is more likely with Kennedy than with Johnson.

Diem surviving isn't going to change anything. I'd argue it would make things worse. Much as the Communists said we must be stupid for having him killed (even though we didn't actually approve that), they did so because they assumed we were all military imperialists like Diem. Diem was a jackass who had an exceedingly corrupt regime, and who was not winning the war because of how inept his corruption made things. Removing Diem opened the door for the prospect of a better administration. The fact that it didn't should show how much of a perfect failed state South Vietnam was. It shouldn't be used as evidence of something we should not have allowed. A bad government simply succeeded a bad government. With Diem still in place, you are not going to have any chance for reform. And he will continue to harass the majority, alienate the intellectuals and his own people, embarrass the United States in doing so, and permit and encourage a culture of corruption throughout South Vietnam's government. Diem is the perfect man to drive his people to the Communists or to dangerous apathy. Vietnam is not like Korea. It is so in being a quagmire. It is not so in that all the things that were astroturf in Korea (the Communist enemy and their guerrillas) were legitimate in Vietnam. As we saw in the OTL, America and it's allies fighting the Communists is not going to save the day and allow a nepotistic regime to continue under America's protection. America would accept a dictatorship but it had to be one that could survive on it's own and prosecute the war. With Diem in power, it's just going to be his brother, himself and his gang of buddies getting all the money and luxury they can before their nation falls as a result, and they flee to some nice villa in France, all the while cursing the US for failing them.
 
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Compare Thieu with other leaders of SE Asia

I often conclude that if Thieu could consolidate his power, he would have survive his presidency (with or without amendment of constitution) until 1980 or 1990s, and would end under three conditions: 1) under pressure of protests for democracy; 2) weakened by unrest caused by Asian Financial crisis; 3) found a suitable successor and transfer power peacefully albeit maintaining strong position until he died.

Suharto (Indonesia) : 1965 - 1998, 33 years
Marcos (Philippines) : 1965 - 1986, 21 years
Lee Kuan Yew (Singapore) : 1965 - 1990, 25 years
Park Chung Hee (ROK) : 1961 - 1979, 18 years

However, the autocracy of RVN is in fact weaker (less stable) than other SE Asian states, with larger degree of freedom of press (Freedom House, 1974 - 1975). At some point, juntas like Ky might use power of people to oust Thieu.
 
However, the autocracy of RVN is in fact weaker (less stable) than other SE Asian states, with larger degree of freedom of press (Freedom House, 1974 - 1975). At some point, juntas like Ky might use power of people to oust Thieu.

Using what Emperor Norton did, after a few more years of Thieu(at least a decade) a coup by Ky may not even change things; the Viet Cong was only so successful with North Vietnamese support. There may be a few bumps along the road but otherwise sounds fine.
 
Using what Emperor Norton did, after a few more years of Thieu(at least a decade) a coup by Ky may not even change things; the Viet Cong was only so successful with North Vietnamese support. There may be a few bumps along the road but otherwise sounds fine.

Perhaps Viet Cong was so successful also with Hanoi John and Hanoi Jane's support. Remember some students waved Viet Cong flag in campus.

Also Thieu's regime might have still become fragile when major threats of PAVN and the Cong diminished. Several sects were present in South Vietnam may again clash / cooperate with different government interest groups. Buddhists might start to clash with Catholics, where Thieu might have to take side (especially he was a devoted Catholic).
 
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