Post revolutionary Iran as US ally in the mid east?

I'm just wondering.

What would have needed to happen before, during or after the Iranian Revolution to keep Iran in the orbit of the United States as an ally in the area?

The Shah dying of his cancer before he could be admitted to a hospital in the US, which potentially prevents the Hostage Crisis?
 
Would take a lot more. Brezenski & many others in the Carter administration seem to have been extremely out of touch with what was really going on in Iran. Their thinking had been shaped by 20+ years of experience in Cold War & anti Communist/USSR politics that they were not at all in touch with Iran as a nation of people vs Iran as the Shahs government represented it.
 

yourworstnightmare

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The hostage crisis need to be butterflied for sure. They'd still not be Close allies, more reluctant allies against the USSR/ Saddam threat.
 
Not really possible: the USA's close relations with the Shah saw to it that the USA was intrinsically connected to the decades of tyranny that the Iranian people had endured under the Shah's rule.

If the US had extradited the Shah back to Iran to face trial, that certainly could have gone a long way towards smoothing things over. It wouldn't have made everything perfect, but I don't think it can be underestimated how utterly hated the Shah was and how meaningful it would be if the Iranian nation and people had the chance to bring him to justice.

Now, the problem with this process is that any trial would inevitably result in lots of information coming to light about how strong the USA's relationship with the Shah's regime was, and possibly the strong ties between the secret police (SAVAK) and the CIA which provided them with training.

In short, a trial would very possibly inflame anti-American sentiment as the depth of collusion between the US and the Shah's regime would become fully-known.
 
One possibility is to have the Islamic Republic fail after Ayatollah Khomeini dies. One POD could be that his designated successor for most of the 1980s was Hossein Montazeri, who had decidedly liberal views and very foolishly expressed them when the old man was still alive. Subsequently, Montazeri was sidelined and excluded from the leadership.

What could happen is Montazeri keeps his liberalisation ambitions quiet, succeeds to Supreme Leader when Khomeini dies, and then proceeds to embark down this road most likely leading to a showdown with conservative elements. Depending on how long Montazeri is able to stay in power, and how far down this track he gets, it could bring about two scenarios which could lead to the OP outcome: 1) A legal liberalisation where the secular authorities slowly assert themselves and pursue closer relations with America; or 2) A civil war which results in the forces of secularism prevailing and that regime pursuing closer relations with America (A possibility given the economic failure of the Islamic Revolution).
 
I don't see this possible with Khomeini seizing power or his disciples staying in power. Khomeini consolidated power very quickly upon his return to Iran in January 1979. He eliminated the provisional government under Bakhtiar by February, and got his Islamic Republic referendum passed in March. Khomeini's initial choice for PM Mehdi Bazargan was a democratic figure, and he lasted only until November when the Hostage Crisis happened. Khomeini needed an outside enemy to rally people to his banner, and the US was the best choice as a close ally of the Shah.

Once Iran is established/consolidated, I don't see the clerics letting go. There were possible overtures to Iran after the Persian Gulf War and 9/11 Attacks that might have resulted in some kind of US-Iranian detente, it is by no means certain the most likely result would be a US-Iranian alliance. The best chance is to kill the Islamic Republic before or at its birth which means Khomeini has to die before 1979.

The revolution against the Shah was not initially in favor of an Islamic Republic. Many secular moderates and democrats (and the Western media) viewed Khomeini as a moral figure, but not a politician interested in power. Their intention was to establish a democratic Iran. However, Khomeini was too smart for them, and he cleverly exploited discontent to become the dominant faction in Iran who then eliminated everyone else. If Khomeini died in 1978 somehow (either naturally or by assassination), it wasn't going to stop the Iranian Revolution, but it probably would stop it from becoming an Islamic Revolution.

A lesser possibility is that Bakhtiar takes power in a way that does make it seem like he was the Shah's prime minister, but done in opposition to the Shah, and this allows him to consolidate power in a way that defeats Khomeini. However, I think Khomeini is just too skilled to allow himself to be outmaneuvered by that, which is why I think he needs to die before he reaches Iran.

If the moderate democrats remained in power and guided Iran to stable politics (which is what the Carter administration assumed would happen), then an Iranian-American rapprochement is probably inevitable and would happen by mid-late eighties. A return to some kind of alliance would eventually happen. If the Iraqis invade a Bakhtiar lead Iran in 1980, then the US might even assist Iran in various ways early on, and the reconciliation might happen sooner.
 
One possibility is to have the Islamic Republic fail after Ayatollah Khomeini dies. One POD could be that his designated successor for most of the 1980s was Hossein Montazeri, who had decidedly liberal views and very foolishly expressed them when the old man was still alive. Subsequently, Montazeri was sidelined and excluded from the leadership.

What could happen is Montazeri keeps his liberalisation ambitions quiet, succeeds to Supreme Leader when Khomeini dies, and then proceeds to embark down this road most likely leading to a showdown with conservative elements. Depending on how long Montazeri is able to stay in power, and how far down this track he gets, it could bring about two scenarios which could lead to the OP outcome: 1) A legal liberalisation where the secular authorities slowly assert themselves and pursue closer relations with America; or 2) A civil war which results in the forces of secularism prevailing and that regime pursuing closer relations with America (A possibility given the economic failure of the Islamic Revolution).

If Montazeri can pursue a more Deng-esque path in Iran, and repair relations with the United States during the Gulf War, by today we may have a rough-and-ready alliance with them as long as the Saudi connection is broken (either through the collapse of the Saudi regime or a major public break with the kingdom - say, Saudi intelligence's involvement in a terrorist attack comes out).
 
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