Post-nuclear Irish regional power

Just something I was thinking about, I've only seen one scenario which deals with Ireland in a post-nuclear war world 1983: Doomsday and their frankly annoying Celtic Alliance.
In short, after nuclear annhiliation due to some Soviet whoopsy in 1983, Ireland annexes the North unoppossed (because readiation made the Unionists logical) and then goes on to liberate various other areas of the British Isles such as the Hebridies, coastal Scotland, coastal Wales, south-west England along with Brittany and lower Normandy.

So, anyone want to come up with something which makes a tad more sense?

POD should be after the start of the Troubles, so having any of OTLs potential nuclear flashpoints turning hot would work post-Cuba.

Assume seats of government and key military installations are taken out, not bomb happy apocalyptic fun.
 

Macragge1

Banned
What you have to remember is that even though the UK's Armed Forces would be seriously damaged by a nuclear exchange, the Irish Military is pretty much a joke throughout the Cold War period, with only a few thousand lightly armed troops, a couple of propeller aircraft and no real armour to speak of.

In any scenario where the UK is hit, Eire will probably be hit too (certainly Dublin will be targeted); even if it was left unscathed, the surviving British forces in Ulster, even without paramilitary assistance, will still be a major, major overmatch for them. It goes without saying that in such a scenario the gloves will be well and truly off, which further increases the disparity between the two sides thanks to British supremacy at sea and in the air which basically allows them to strike any target at will for as long as fuel and ammunition will last.
 
What you have to remember is that even though the UK's Armed Forces would be seriously damaged by a nuclear exchange, the Irish Military is pretty much a joke throughout the Cold War period, with only a few thousand lightly armed troops, a couple of propeller aircraft and no real armour to speak of.

In any scenario where the UK is hit, Eire will probably be hit too (certainly Dublin will be targeted); even if it was left unscathed, the surviving British forces in Ulster, even without paramilitary assistance, will still be a major, major overmatch for them. It goes without saying that in such a scenario the gloves will be well and truly off, which further increases the disparity between the two sides thanks to British supremacy at sea and in the air which basically allows them to strike any target at will for as long as fuel and ammunition will last.

Well firstly, why would Dublin be targeted? Yes they lean towards the USA and western Europe but as they are in no way a threat why would anyone waste a bomb on them?
Secondly, if the UK military and government goes under, which is pretty much in the OP, things will go down hill very quickly in NI. The IRA will become more confident, leading to increased retaliation from loyalist paramilitaries leading to more general chaos. Plus if Belfast gets blasted (which it definitely will as a major British city and centre of British forces in Ulster) there will be thousands of refugees from Antrim and Down heading into the countryside. Thus making things even worse.

NI would be nothing compared to the Soviets, so I don't think an aircraft carrier is gonna be kept around or anything. Plus even if the British command structure in NI holds up, they won't have the authority to call for air strikes, and it's unlikely any will be forthcoming anyway.

Now my own idea, if there's a break down of law and order in NI due to paramilitary violence, heavy handed British tactics in maintains control (heavy handed compared to OTL) and a huge refugee problem, then the Taoiseach is going to call for emergency powers. This also means he can implement conscription if he deems it necessary.

I'm not saying Ireland blitzkriegs into NI as soon as the bombs drop, but of things go chaotic and Britain is in no state to maintain order then the necessary measures would be taken to try and pacify as much of NI as possible.
Also, this is post-WW3, not to mention I've been rereading FaT, so I'm imagining ethnic cleansing and mass executions being called into action pretty soon after an invasion.
 
Ireland has ports and airfields and other facilities that'd potentially be put at NATO disposal - with their support or not - under certain circumstances. The Soviets would've been aware of this and doubtless wouldn't really respect Irish neutrality unless it was convenient for them. (And in the event of a nuclear WW3 they'd hardly worry about being seen as the bad guys by a few neutral states.)

Ireland's resources are far more modest than the UK. I'd imagine they'd be tidying up after Cork, Shannon and Dublin were targeted by Soviet weapons to remove them as potential entry points for NATO reinforcements and secondary bases for NATO naval and air units.
 

Macragge1

Banned
Dublin is the capital of a pro-Western, NATO supporting democracy. The Soviet Union has tens of thousands of nuclear warheads (bear in mind that some UK cities would be allocated dozens of weapons); such a target more than merits one. The 'logic' of strategic nuclear war dictates that one must not only destroy current threats, but probable future threats such as a very capitalist and very Christian democracy such as the Republic of Ireland.

There's no real way that one can make the whole UK Government and the armed forces 'go under'; the very nature of civil defence planning means that the entire structure of both organisations is devolved and regionalised, to say nothing of being dispersed to reasonably safe locations pre-attack - unless the USSR bomb every inch of countryside and woods in the country they aren't going to wipe out the forces that have been basically hidden there.

Yes, Belfast will probably be hit; the Regional Government was to be based in Armagh, however, with the Army elsewhere. They will no doubt take a battering, but planning for the maintenance of command and control had been serious for some time.

The IRA might decide to get brave (or rather, stupid) and start causing trouble. Bear in mind, however, that at their height there were only 100-200 active 'soldiers' in the organisation, and only a fraction of them had heavy weapons. Even allowing for some influx of support post-attack, they are still going to be heavily outnumbered by even a decimated surviving Army, to say nothing of the Unionist Paramilitaries. Bear in mind that, even at their most brutal, the British during the Troubles were fighting with one and a half hands tied behind their back. There would be no such restraint displayed in the post-war world, and anybody idiotic enough to try and stir things up would be hunted down and killed outright like the animals that they, quite frankly, are.

The Irish Government are not stupid either; apart from the fact that their country will be starving and isolated, they know that they still can't win against the UK. It's not even in their best interests to - for all their differences the two nations will do much better to help each other post-strike rather than fight.

Should the Republic have some massive brainstorm and attack the North, it doesn't take a lot for the British to stop them. We don't need an aircraft carrier; a couple of Jaguars and a long-ish stretch of motorway on the mainland and a couple of small nuclear weapons would be enough to repulse any Irish intruders fairly effectively. Should the battered and angry British continuous governments be feeling particularly merciful or have no bombs available, conventional attacks from the mainland or from the sea, combined with the movement (difficult but possible) of reserves over to the Provinces would convincingly destroy the Irish Defence Forces outright.

The conscription idea doesn't really go anywhere; even in peacetime the Irish Army wouldn't be able to train, arm or feed this sort of influx in manpower. If they really, really wanted to give their scarecrow populace some sticks and order them against British tanks then they probably good, but most of the conscripts would probably decide to save time on the walking and just get shot for desertion there and then.
 
Ireland has ports and airfields and other facilities that'd potentially be put at NATO disposal - with their support or not - under certain circumstances. The Soviets would've been aware of this and doubtless wouldn't really respect Irish neutrality unless it was convenient to them. (And in the event of a nuclear WW3 they'd hardly worry about being seen as the bad guys by a few neutral states.)

It's more about practicality though. I mean, it's understandable if the Soviets were to go through Austria, Sweden and Yugoslavia, they're in the way after all. Ireland however isn't in the Soviets way, if anything it's in Americas way to Britain and Europe.
Yes there's potential that Britain and America could "occupy" Ireland to access the ports and airfields, but there's also the potential for them to do the same thing to other countries. The USSR can't have all these nukes for potential targets, they just won't have enough money.

And there's also MAD. All the nukes are going to be used up taking out concentrations of armed forces, military installations, government institutes, and towards the end maybe just out of spite (assuming there's anyone left who can enter new coordinates for a nuclear missile).
 

iddt3

Donor
It's more about practicality though. I mean, it's understandable if the Soviets were to go through Austria, Sweden and Yugoslavia, they're in the way after all. Ireland however isn't in the Soviets way, if anything it's in Americas way to Britain and Europe.
Yes there's potential that Britain and America could "occupy" Ireland to access the ports and airfields, but there's also the potential for them to do the same thing to other countries. The USSR can't have all these nukes for potential targets, they just won't have enough money.

And there's also MAD. All the nukes are going to be used up taking out concentrations of armed forces, military installations, government institutes, and towards the end maybe just out of spite (assuming there's anyone left who can enter new coordinates for a nuclear missile).
IIRC, the soviet plan in the event of total nuclear war was to hit every country that could conceivably be a future threat, so China gets hit, Brazil, Sweden ect. If you've committed to thermonuclear war, you might as well go all in.
 
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