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The Kennedy assassination is one of the focal point PODs in alternate history. Generally, the focus is on Kennedy avoiding assassination, whether he be injured but recovers, shot at but not hit, or whether he avoids Oswald or Dallas altogether. However, little if any attention is paid to the PODs and changes that could have easily occurred in the aftermath of the murder of President Kennedy. The day of the assassination, the succeeding days, weeks and months and the period of time until the 1964 election cover a vast and important period of time. In this period, there was a great deal of uncertainty as the established order and the assumptions of the time had been totally disrupted, and there were so many different things that could have occurred. In brief, the history that unfolded, with Johnson assuming the presidency and defeating Goldwater in 1964, was mundane compared to what could have unfolded.

In my personal opinion, this is a vast treasure trove for alternate history and potential PODs, all of which would result in butterflies to be unfolded at the whim of the author. And I would personally be interested in seeing these utilized for timelines, as they have been largely ignored and are unclaimed creative territory. The purpose of this thread is to catalog and discuss them. Some of these will be related to the 1964 election, because the Kennedy assassination was clearly related to the assassination.

I will list the PODs that I am aware of as of this writing, and some result from the previous listed. The PODs concerning the 1964 election are ones which I feel are really tied in with the assassination rather than standing apart from it:

1) Lyndon Johnson Assassinated: McCormack, Hayden and Dean Rusk

Lyndon Johnson could easily have been assassinated along with President Kennedy. Johnson could have been in the car with Kennedy rather than Governor John Connally, and the space of time in which Oswald murdered Kennedy was more than enough for him to also assassinated Johnson in such a situation. Johnson could also have been within the line of fire in such a way that the shots to Kennedy could have passed into him fatally. There is also the matter, somewhat well known, that a secret service agent nearly shot him shortly thereafter, having mistaken him for a trespasser.

In such a case, the presidency would then fall to Speaker of the House John McCormack. If unimpeded by other events, McCormack would serve in the capacity of president until at least 1964. However, McCormack was also in his early seventies. A man of such advanced years is going to have difficulty overseeing the presidency in a nuclear age. He will also be forced to oversee the uniting of the nation following the tragedy in Dallas. And he will be overseeing the events that are unfolding in the foreign and domestic world in 1963-1964, which are anything but simple. It is possible that the stress could be enough to kill him. It is also possible that he could choose to side step the presidency, if at all possible. I am uncertain of the legal potential for that, but I also assume they are as well. I do not believe that it was considered that someone in the line of succession might attempt to refuse it, but it may be a legal consideration.

In either case, the additional POD would be the presidency falling to President Pro Tempore Carl Hayden. There is little to say here, as Carl Hayden would absolutely refuse to be president.
"I'd call Congress together, have the House elect a new speaker, and then I'd resign and let him become president."
If McCormack had the precedent of denying the position of the presidency without being required to resign his elected position, Hayden would certainly follow suite. There is little more to be said on the matter. Whereas there may have been a short McCormack administration, there would never have been a Hayden administration for any period of time.

The presidency would then fall to Secretary of State Dean Rusk. Kennedy had little respect for Dean Rusk, and essentially viewed him as the equivalent of a human potato. Kennedy was also planning to remove Rusk from the cabinet, place McNamara as Secretary of State, and place Robert Kennedy in the position of Secretary of Defense. However, that was tentative, and there are many possibilities for cabinet changes. Kennedy was likely to make them regardless, and Dean Rusk was very likely to be removed.

As he recalled in his autobiography, As I Saw It, Rusk did not have a good relationship with President Kennedy. The president was often irritated by Rusk's reticence in advisory sessions and felt that the State Department was "like a bowl of jelly" and that it "never comes up with any new ideas". Special Counsel to the President Ted Sorensen believed that Kennedy, being well versed and practiced in foreign affairs, acted as his own Secretary of State. Sorensen also said that the president often expressed impatience with Rusk and felt him under-prepared for emergency meetings and crises.[13] Rusk repeatedly offered his resignation, but it was never accepted. Rumors of Rusk's dismissal leading up to the 1964 election abounded prior to President Kennedy's trip to Dallas in 1963. Shortly after Kennedy was assassinated, Rusk offered his resignation to the new president, Lyndon B. Johnson. However, Johnson refused Rusk's resignation and retained him as the Secretary of State throughout his administration.

Rusk would be an interesting president. Unlike McCormack or Hayden, he is physically suited to the office of the presidency. However, he was also a man Kennedy would never have wanted to have succeeded him. I am not well versed in Dean Rusk. However, Jacqueline Kennedy's view of him was a sort of kind ambivalence a mother would give to an unaccomplished child. He was perfectly decent, was intelligent and compassionate, but did not do well at making decisions based on what they understood and defined well. This is a rather interesting potential presidency.

2) John Connally Assassinated

My understanding of Connally is limited on a number of fronts, but I will discuss him as I know him. Connally was an ally of Lyndon Johnson. He was essentially Johnson's political hit man when Johnson wanted to let someone else make people angry. He did not get along well with other politicians due to his nature, and his governorship divided the Texas Democratic party. This, as well as campaigning for 1964, is what lead Kennedy to go to Dallas.

In the aftermath of the assassination, Connally would eventually become a Democrat for Nixon. And, waiting until Johnson had died, a full Republican. Richard Nixon had a fetish for Connally, and considered him for the vice presidency. He even considered him as a potential successor who would embody the grand Conservative coalition Nixon wanted to establish: former, blue collar Democrats joining with Republicans. It would be a mocking rebuke to the Democratic party. However, that would not have happened precisely for that reason. Republicans did not trust him, as he had been a Democrat. Democrats did not trust him, and viewed him as a traitor. Connally tried but failed to win the Repubican nomination for the presidency thereafter, and again failed for those reasons. To quote a newspaper, he viewed problems like a Republican, but his solutions were those of a Democrat. [Citation]

I do not know the ramifications were Connally assassinated in 1963, but it bears mentioning and consideration.

3) Lyndon Johnson Does Not Seek the Presidency in 1964

Believe it or not, this was a possibility. There were people around Johnson who have stated that Johnson lamented, in the months after the assassination and leading up to the Democratic nomination for 1964, that he would not seek the presidency. They said that his mood would be down in the depths of depression and he would make such comments, despite their stating that there was no way he would lose in 1964. And then his mood would rise and he would be perfectly fine, before spiraling into that depression again. One person commented that they realized Johnson was manic depressive (which has later been categorized as bipolar disorder). Whether you believe that diagnosis is a matter of opinion. However, there was the possibility that Johnson may have refused to run in 1964.

In such a situation, the floor is wide open going into the nomination. No one is directly linked to the Kennedy legacy, and it may be a matter of who best is able to carry it forward. Hubert Humphrey may be in a strong position in 1964, but that is also a matter of certain bitter feelings that still may exist concerning the 1960 nomination. There is also the possibility that Robert Kennedy would run, whether through conviction or being swayed by popular support, or both. Or, it could be another candidate. It may also be a matter where Johnson, despite removing himself from consideration, would use whatever power and influence in the party he had to ensure his successor existed on his terms. He could lord his influence over the candidates to get his stamp of approval and endorsement as sitting president, which is tempting to a candidate. And it could spark a very problematic division in the party, whether behind the scenes or in plain view for the world to see. Regardless of if Robert Kennedy entered the race, Johnson in his paranoia would believe, as he did concerning the 1964 race, that Kennedy would attempt to use the Democratic Convention to force himself into the presidency or the vice presidency. And it is a strong possibility, in my opinion, that Robert Kennedy is a strong possibility for the vice presidency. Kennedy, for his part, could easily have pushed back against Johnson. It could all get rather messy.

4) Barry Goldwater Drops out of 1964

As I have stated, the Kennedy assassination disrupted the assumptions that existed for what would happen in 1964. Goldwater was planning to run against Kennedy. He was friends with Kennedy. When the President was assassinated, Goldwater actually dropped out of the consideration for the Republican nomination. He was only later convinced to run.

If Goldwater remains out of the race, it makes for an interesting Republican primary regardless. Nelson Rockefeller is the knee-jerk assumption. The problem was, his rather public divorce and subsequent marriage to his mistress was extremely offensive to Republican voters and Americans in general, and doomed his chances of winning the nomination in 1964. In the OTL, moderate Republicans ran from Rockefeller. However, Rockefeller refused to concede, dividing the moderates further as they sought anyone else, and failed to stop the Goldwater momentum. Here, this would still be an issue and one that could lead to party division. The Republican nomination in this scenario would not necessarily be the bloody, hateful one of actual history (unless the Conservatives revolt despite the lack of Goldwater), but it would most likely be the moderates and liberals desperately seeking a candidate who was not Nelson Rockefeller. In actual history, this was William Scranton. However, there were other candidate possibilities.

This would also have a long term impact on American politics. Without Goldwater in 1964, a pivotal moment in the rise of American Conservatism is removed. The Conservatives are not able to take over the party in that moment, and it will removed a major step of confidence for the movement as they have not proven to themselves that they can take the party. If it comes, it will be delayed until the 1966 elections and/or the 1968 presidential election. The Democrats are also not able to portray the Republicans as heinously Conservative. As a result, although they may win 1964, the Republican ticket will have a better electoral result. This can impact the 1964 Congressional elections, which were pivotal in removing old blood and bringing in Liberals who would pass the Great Society agenda, including the legislation Kennedy was unable to pass as a result of an opposition Congress. That has an impact on Civil Rights, welfare, health care and other Liberal programs.

5) George Romney Runs in 1964

George Romney was the only candidate John F. Kennedy was concerned about running against. He was a Rockefeller Republican from a major state who did not embody the established as Rockefeller did, was in favor of Civil Rights, and had a successful business record. He was charismatic and "looked presidential", to quote a common statement about him. He has limited political experience in 1964. However, the fact is, he could have run, and if he did, he could have won the nomination.

5) George Wallace Runs in 1964

George Wallace ran for the Democratic nomination in 1964, in a candidacy he likely understood would go nowhere. However, George Wallace wanted the presidency, and he wanted to build support for winning it at some point. The reason he did not run in 1964 is because of Barry Goldwater and his discussions with the Goldwater camp. Goldwater was sufficiently Conservative for George Wallace, and there was no point in running against him. However, if Nelson Rockefeller was the nominee or were another moderate/liberal Republican the nominee, Wallace would have run in 1964 as an independent candidate.

Although not all Conservatives would have supported him, in such a scenario, Wallace would have preempted the Republican party as the leader of the Conservative movement and the home for Conservatives. He would have run a candidacy of law and order well ahead of Nixon, infused with a concept of limited, non-invasive government which was a wink and a nod to racial issues. If the Conservatives line up behind Wallace and a party outside of the Republican party, that has massive ramifications. It also puts Wallace in a certain place and position for 1968. He may have also run for the Democratic nomination in this election year, and he could have run as an independent once again if he failed to capture it, and it is a forest fire for American politics that will burn out of control and who knows where.

6) Robert Kennedy Forces Himself on the Ticket in 1964

As stated earlier, Lyndon Johnson was terrified Kennedy would use to momentum of the Convention to force himself into the vice presidency via the popular will of the delegates. Johnson and Kennedy hated each other will a deep, bitter anger and resentment known only to people who believe in the physical reality of the Devil. This clearly did not occur, but there is the consideration about what if it had. As the assassination itself proved, history is not a glacier which moves slowly, surely and gradually. It is extremely fickle, based on whims which lead to action, with all their long term ramifications. Kennedy could have made this move, or the delegates could have done so. Kennedy may have hated Johnson, but if it upset Johnson and put him in a position to take the presidency away from him in 1968, he may have done it. And the results would be fascinating. Overall, while the public image would be a projection of unity and Johnson as carrying on the Kennedy legacy, it would always be a matter in the mind of every American that the real inheritor was Robert Kennedy and Johnson was simply a regent until Robert Kennedy could become president. And behind the scenes, it would be anything but unity, with both men plotting against one another and paranoid at the other in a story right out of Shakespeare. And the result would be a tug of war which could be at America's expense, petty infighting that could undermine the policy and agenda of the administration, and a 1968 nomination contest and general election that would be chaotic in a glorious, terrifying, and infinitely interesting way.

7) Cabinet Changes After 1963

As stated, Kennedy intended to rearrange and modify his cabinet after the 1964 election. Johnson did not do this, likely not intending to offend the Kennedy legacy (despite Kennedy's intentions). But he could have done so. As stated, Dean Rusk was going to be removed, and possibly made US Ambassador to the United Nations. The position of Secretary of State was a matter of discussion, potentially going to McNamara or Bundy. Robert Kennedy may have been made Secretary of Defense. Kennedy was also planning on slowly weening off the Joint Chiefs left over from the Eisenhower administration. They were extremely hawkish, often combative, but Kennedy did not remove them because he did not want to be seen as the inexperienced president tarnishing and rebuking the legacy of his predecessor, especially since these were military officials appointed by the man who won WW2. This is a similar position Johnson was in with regards to the Kennedy cabinet.

However, Johnson did not seem to even have the desire to gradually change the cabinet. If he did, I do not know what his ideal cabinet would be, or what positions he would shift around or replace. That is a matter of discussion and debate.
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