Post CP Victory: Fascist France

With a quick win, there will not be a large occupation army. We are talking no more than a few 10's of miles adjustment in the east, with a good chance of de facto if not de jure ethnic cleanising (i.e the evacuated population will never return). France will lose some land, but not a huge area. So there will not be a need for a large army of occupation. The forces dug into defend Metz now defend Verdun type movements. Some units in Posen are moved 10-30 miles east.

Why do you see A-H in a worse shape? They win a quick war (under six months) and they obviously did well in Galicia. The Serbian issue is largely settle, so one of the Ethnic issue is fixed. In a few years, there will be a new monarch, and we will see if he can find a plan that works. The Russians are still big enough and made enough to make the Hungarians need allies. A-H will be stronger in 1916 than it was in 1913.

Italy will have a short lived economic boom. Some of its rivals will be weakened, so the future looks pretty good for Italy. Likely Italy still has Libya today, and Libya speaks Italian and maybe majority Christian.

Oh sure a real quick win mean that and is basically the better scenario for all the nations of Europe (winner and loser alike), but the gain of Germany implied in the post i answered mean a long war probably almost on par with OTL (communist Russia without Ukraine, all eastern Europe, MittelAfrika, big loss for France etc. etc.) and this mean a total different geopolitical and economical situation in the aftermath...basically everybody lose.
 
I could definately see France go Communist - it nearly did after winning WWI - but Fascist? not sure

You have a point. However, I doubt a Communist France would have been able to have lasted long either due to civil war, invasion, or a combination of the two. So, perhaps, a Fascist France would suceed Communist France. Though, I think a neo-Boulangist or neo-Bonapartist regime is a bit more likely than a straight out Fascist France.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Oh sure a real quick win mean that and is basically the better scenario for all the nations of Europe (winner and loser alike), but the gain of Germany implied in the post i answered mean a long war probably almost on par with OTL (communist Russia without Ukraine, all eastern Europe, MittelAfrika, big loss for France etc. etc.) and this mean a total different geopolitical and economical situation in the aftermath...basically everybody lose.

Agreed is it very hard. We need Japan early 1942 fortune. Not only do we need Conrad to get a brain transplant, we probably need the the German attack plan on France upgraded. It is normally two major POD, but I guess we might get away with one, such as the Kaiser grants unlimited backing to A-H but only on the condition they coordinate plans, so the Germans totally rewrite the A-H plan, and O BTW, they fix a few issue with the German Plan. I can sort of imagine this one, but it is a stretch since most "we know there will be war" POD give you a diplomatic solution. Then we need a Pervical (Singapore) style series of blunders by the French. Not only does the French 5th Army die in short order, but the French leave a lot of spare supplies around. And then we need the French commander to make another blunder, basically, wherever the German commander attacks after the 5th Army is lost, the French leave a gap in lines. This is hard to see, but the defense of Singapore in WW2 was worse. And the defense of the Philippines has some simularities. Then we need the Russians to be more ineffective than OTL. This one I can actually see, the Tsar takes personal command on day 1.

I can write lots of German wins WW1 TL, but few before 1917.
 
Any French Fascism after WWI is likely to be based on some variation of the Action Francaise and the Far Right Leagues. What is needed though, is a leader who has the political skills and ruthlessness to seize power. There are various candidates, but no obvious front runner. Whoever the candidate is will probably determine what kind of conservatism takes control of France - a monarchist, an imperialist of the Napoleonic school, outright fascism, or simply a right wing republic?

It's entirely possible that Petain could become the figurehead of such a movement, and if so it is intriguing how his protege DeGaulle turns out.

The benefit that any French Fascism will have is that it is not tained by any association with Germany, and that they will have a natural allies in Mussolini's Italy who will provide an inspiration.

Like in Germany, any fascism will take a long time to take power. Although it is possible that something like the February 6, 1934 crisis results in a right wing coup, instead of a failed coup.

It's important to note that in this scenario, any French fascism will likely be very popular, and will not be organized around German Nazi lines. Instead, it will be heavily integralist and be much more like Salazar's Portugal, and not be hostile towards the Catholic Church like how Mussolini and Hitler were.

It's entirely possible that such an integralist France would have allies all across the Meditteranean from Portugal to Italy by the end of the 1930s.

However, in any such scenario, we shouldn't expect a triumphant Kaiserreich to be as weak kneed in opposing a revanchist France as the Third Republic was to Nazu Germany.
 
A revival of one of the many French monarchisms seems more likely, IMO. Bonapartism is proto-fascist in and of itself.

Seriously???? Not at all man. He was an "enlightened despot" not a fascist. :eek:

But I see restoring the monarchy as a plausible option.
 
Well I don't think that France following the First World War would be just like Germany. The French Republic is likely to have a new government formed, an early 4th Republic, and will go about adjusting to the new order, where in their military has been shunted into a non entity. The colonial forces within France will be utilized by the government to hold the people of France together, along with the immense amount of loyalists that would be left over after the war. Without such a crushing change like the one from the Empire to the Republic, like in Germany, will result in more politics as usual.

I see right wing politics and veterans organizations becoming the prominent source of support for the Right wing, but I doubt a group as far right as the Nazis would ever come to power. The Socialists will probably have power for a good bit, and the Communists could definitely see some inroads, especially in the colonies of France, since the German's didn't want something that big. Occupation will probably end somewhere around 1919, German troops leaving the large majority of France to their devices. I can Northern France becoming the point of contention that will lead a Conservative government taking power, with heavy Nationalist overtones. The problem is, in France the military has always represented the base of the right wing movements, coupled with the wealthy and social conservatives, however, any revanchist organization is bound to have some reservations against the officer class for "losing the war". Likely, without a scape goat like the Jews, the leading class of France will be seen as the reason for France's loss. If Paris falls peacefully, like in 1940, the French will defend it like fucking hell the next time someone tries to roll in.

As for the actual people, Im afraid this is the problem. The leaders of any Fascist movement, while in cooperation with young officers in the military, will certainly be from the privates of the French military. People who in our TL never had a shot. The Bonapartists may gain some support, but I doubt very highly that they would come to power, double that for those idiots in the Action Francaise. Get someone like Francois de la Rocque, but with more rashness and you could easily get a Fascist France. Either way, France is going to attempt to retake what's theirs, and the Germans won't take it sitting down.

And by the way, Fascism will very likely gain power in Germany as well. After bankrupting his nation in the war, he'll need the explicit support of the military, and that easily turn into a dictatorship. Can anyone say Ludendorff-Hindenbrug junta?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
And by the way, Fascism will very likely gain power in Germany as well. After bankrupting his nation in the war, he'll need the explicit support of the military, and that easily turn into a dictatorship. Can anyone say Ludendorff-Hindenbrug junta?

Extremely unlikely. First, the finances are quite fine with much, much lower cost than OTL. The Germans will also loot (call it reparations) quite heavily, and impose reparations on things like French coal mines. IOTL, through 1914 things like meat prices were actually falling in Germany as Belgium and parts of France were systematically looted. Germans have a sporting chance of breaking even on marks. Second, with better performance in the east, Hindenburg may not come out of retirement. Falkenhayn will be the war hero, or perhaps Moltke. The Kaiser is probably strengthened, but he will still have to deal with SDP and other parties. ITTL, there is a good chance a Kaiser still reigns in Germany, and might even have some real power, but much less than the office held in 1912.
 
Extremely unlikely. First, the finances are quite fine with much, much lower cost than OTL. The Germans will also loot (call it reparations) quite heavily, and impose reparations on things like French coal mines. IOTL, through 1914 things like meat prices were actually falling in Germany as Belgium and parts of France were systematically looted. Germans have a sporting chance of breaking even on marks. Second, with better performance in the east, Hindenburg may not come out of retirement. Falkenhayn will be the war hero, or perhaps Moltke. The Kaiser is probably strengthened, but he will still have to deal with SDP and other parties. ITTL, there is a good chance a Kaiser still reigns in Germany, and might even have some real power, but much less than the office held in 1912.

Now I guess we have different ideas of the scenario that plays out. I was thinking 1918 just slows down favorably for the Germans.
 
I didn't come up with the following.

Humiliated, it would most probably have spawned a reactionary, totalitarian ideology not unlike fascism. A "national revolution" led by the "Action Française" would have overthrown the Republic and proclaimed a new "French State", led by Marshall Pétain and based on an illiberal and violently anti-Semitic National-Catholic ideology. Pétainist France would have found ready allies in its Southern neighbours: in Italy, a firebrand former Socialist journalist called Benito Mussolini, secretly on the pay of the French secret service, would have taken over power after a March on Rome. In Spain, after the terrible defeat of Annual at the hands of a secretly German-supported revolt in Spanish Morocco, king Alfonso XIII would also have put most power in the hands of General Primo de Rivera. French and Spanish troops, using poison gases, would have brutally suppressed the revolt and entered German Morocco in hot pursuit of the rebels, leading to a serious incident with Germany, which would only cement the French-Spanish-Italian "Roman League".

France would also covertly support insurgencies within its enemies, notably in Ireland and German satellite Belgium. The Irish revolt led by the "green shirts" of the IRA would lead to an independent, and violently anti-British, "Irish Catholic State" modelled after France and receiving significant military and naval support from the "Roman League". In Belgium, resentment of the Prussian overlordship would boil over and lead to a call for "Rattachement" to France. This call would be gladly answered by France, which would take over Belgium in a fortnight without reaction from the mutually suspicious German and British.

Despite material affluence, the German and Austro-Hungarian empires would remain riven by internal conflict. In Germany, France would support dissent and even terrorism in Alsace-Lorraine, Luxembourg, the Saar and Rhineland, and would seek secret contacts among the Catholic principalities, notably with Bavaria, where an expatriate Austrian painter would possibly attract the attention of French agents. Austria-Hungary, having gained a Slavic population majority after its victory in the Great War, would have to grant its Slavic peoples equal representation to the Austrian and Hungarians. This would lead to significant resentment in Hungary, which could eventually declare its independence under Admiral Horthy, and join the "Roman League". In turn, this would fuel German nationalism in Austria, and destabilize the Imperial court.

Unrest in Vienna would lead to a popular proclamation of Anschluss with Germany. The Roman League would take this as excuse to "come to the rescue of the oppressed Catholic Italians and Slavs of the Austrian Empire" with a pincer attack from Italy and Hungary. Simultaneously, to prevent a German reaction, the armoured columns of Col. de Gaulle, an old protégé of Pétain, would launch an attack from Belgium, through the Eifel (previously thought impenetrable), directly into the industrial heartlands of the Rhineland, cutting off most of the German Army in Luxembourg and Alsace-Lorraine and leading to a military disaster and an armistice. WWII would start...
 
I've seen many people speculate that if Germany had won WWI (let's say in 1914) then France could have turned fascist. If so, assuming they want revenge on Germany, how would the years afterwards turn out? Who would Britain ally with? And what is the most likely outcome of another war?

Try 1917. Fascism is entirely resilient on the victimist idea of "we deserved a better deal, but X stabbed us in the back". A complete meltdown in 1914 ala 1870 won't leave a big mass of unemployed soldiers trying to turn the country into a barrack either.
 
Seriously???? Not at all man. He was an "enlightened despot" not a fascist. :eek:

But I see restoring the monarchy as a plausible option.

You're right, Napoleon can be properly be described as an enlightened despot. However, he was also proto-fascist. Bonapartism is a type of caesarism and fascism is an ideological descendent of both caesarism and bonapartism. Fascism is also a descendent (or at least a relative) of boulangism which descended from bonapartism.

Napoleon, like Mussolini and Hitler after him, modeled himself after Julius Caesar, Augustus Caesar, and the other emperors of Rome. This is mainly why he can be described as a proto-fascist.
 
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