Post-1964 US/Cuban Flashpoints

Expat

I'm tentatively working on my first timeline based on an earlier thread that came up in this forum and could use suggestions for one point in particular.

Consider the following scenario:

Nelson Rockefeller is elected in 1964. OTL he was extremely committed to the Monroe Doctrine on top of being a staunch anti-communist, so if elected, he'll likely want to see communism chased out of Cuba as a top priority.
In this scenario Vietnam is still an issue, but not quite the hornet's nest it was OTL. Diem is still alive and the US has about 10,000 'advisers' on the ground.
I haven't decided if the Cuban Missile Crisis or the Bay of Pigs have occurred as IOTL.
I believe Rockefeller would exploit any opening in Cuba he could get, even at the expense of Vietnam if needs be.

I'm looking for possible flashpoints between the US and Cuba around 1965-1967. Mid-65 would be right on the nose.

Here are the options I've come up with:

1) The CIA is encouraged to undertake more of their assassination attempts of Castro.

2) The Bay of Pigs force is convinced to put off their assault for a few years- allow time for a larger force to be trained, better planning to be made.

3) A link is made between the guerrilla forces in Bolivia and Cuba? The US convinces Bolivia to declare war on Cuba and backs them as a proxy.

4) The CIA manufactures evidence of Cuban support of domestic terrorism in the US- possibly link one or many of the airline hijackings to this- and creates an international incident based on this.

That's all I've come up with.

What is the plausibility of each of these?

How do the Soviets react to each one?

What is the probability of any of these going nuclear?

What can be done to keep a conflict in Cuba from going nuclear (aside from it not happening at all)?

Thanks for any help.
 

Expat

bump!

Right, I'll bump this once and ask for help again (help!) and then just let it die and deal with complaints of being unrealistic if I ever get the TL finished :p
 

gtrof

I'd say go with the Bay of Pigs option.

How about this, Kennedy gets it dumped in his laps per and is going to go through with it, but at the last minute Cuban troop redeployments (Maybe unrealted but in the area) cause him to cancel. Kennedy then wants CIA to come up with a new plan.
 

Matt Wiser

1983 in Grenada saw the only known instance of American and Cuban troops shooting at each other; after the successful U.S. invasion, Fidel thought Cuba was next, and had his AF Chief draw up a plan to attack the nuclear power plant at Turkey Point, south of Miami, in the event Cuban intelligence caught signs of a U.S. attack on Cuba. The U.S. found out when the Chief of Operations for the Cuban AF flew a MiG-23 to NAS Key West in 1986, and he revealed the plan. Supposedly the Soviets found out as well and warned Fidel that if he attacked the U.S. without having been hit first, the Soviet Union would not support him, and the Soviet brigade in Cuba would stay out it. Now, if Cuban Intel blows it and says a major U.S. exercise in the Carribean (which is run twice a year) is a build-up to an attack, all bets are off, and it's likely that OPLAN 316 gets dusted off...
 

whaleofashrimp

instead of going to bolivia to die che guevaria organizes a brigade of "volunteers to assist the gurrila's in southern vietnam...I'm thinking in the area just north of saigon...he does this to hone is gurrilla stratigy.
there numerous battles between u arvn/us forces and cuban.vc.nva forces take place...including an all cuban attack that succesfully overruns a small american firesupport base in 1967 capturing a few dozen offercers and men and killing over a houndred more.....the americans retaliate by incressing support for terrorist activity by anti-communest cubans
 
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