Post 1941: How Long Could Axis Have Lasted in a "No Nukes" World?

Actually, no bombs means no Manhattan Project. That means all the money and resources that went into it are spent on conventional weapons instead. As those have a shorter lead time, the US would actually be stronger in the later part of the war than OTL. That might actually let the war in Europe end sooner.


I don't have the actual numbers on hand, but I've posted them before. The project which developed and built the Bomb was actually cheaper than the project which developed and built the B-29. In fact, IIRC, the Bomber cost close to 50% more than the Bomb.

I cannot even being to guess just what program or programs could have been accelerated with the Manhattan Project's money, but there are bottlenecks and hurdles which even money cannot overcome.
 
Downfall won't happen at all IMHO.


That's my opinion too.

The only event I can see which will trigger a US invasion of the Home Islands is a Soviet invasion of the Home Islands. If Stalin makes a play for Hokkaido, the US is going to land on Kyushu.
 
Off the top of my head the war in Europe goes pretty much as in our timeline, the major differences will be with Japan - it'll come down to the western Allies either commencing Operation Downfall and accepting the casualties for it or standing off and continuing to bomb Japan's industry and transportation network to rubble and watching the country starve to death. My bet is that the Allies would simply blockade the Japanese home islands whilst continuing to bomb until they accepted unconditional surrender or were so wretchedly weakened that invading wouldn't be a real problem. If the Soviets look like they're going to invade Hokkaido and then expand south then that would probably force their hand into kicking off Operation Olympic but other than that it would be throwing lives away in my opinion.
 
I think the Japanese won't even wait until October 1945. Hell they might even surrender in August. The Soviet invasion of Manchuria did more to encourage the Japanese to surrender than the atomic bombs did.
 
Originally Posted by Bearcat
Downfall won't happen at all IMHO.

That's my opinion too.

The only event I can see which will trigger a US invasion of the Home Islands is a Soviet invasion of the Home Islands. If Stalin makes a play for Hokkaido, the US is going to land on Kyushu.

If Stalin makes a play for Hokkaido,
It is my understanding that the US indicated to Stalin, That the Home Islands were the US's Play Field, and Stalin agreed.

I think some of the members here are fixated on -- Sunshine in a Can.

100 B -29's Can deliver 6 kilotons of whoop-ass. A 500 plane Raid would be 3 times Fat Boy.
By the beginning of 1946 Whe are sending 1000 B-29's Raids, like Whe sent 1000 B-17's over Europe

Down Fall gets delayed due to the Typhoon,
By March when the weather allows the Invasion to proceed, whe are [again] down to 50 plane Raids cause any thing bigger -- Is just Making the Rubble Bounce.
 

Cook

Banned
It is my understanding that the US indicated to Stalin, That the Home Islands were the US's Play Field, and Stalin agreed.

I think some of the members here are fixated on -- Sunshine in a Can.

I think Stalin’s agreement may have been because he lacked the capability to attack the Japanese Home Islands and was busy taking the (then) greater prize of Manchuria, Northern China and North Korea.

That and he was fully aware of America’s forthcoming Sunshine in a Can.

The Bomb had massive shock value that far exceeded the difference in the damage inflicted by it compared to a massive B-29 raid; it was a city destroyed by a single bomb dropped by a single aircraft.

And there was the promise of another bomb over another city every few days until Japan quit.
 
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