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This is related to another thread of mine
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=158432

[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]An observant crewman on the Russian battleship, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Petropavlovsk[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], spots that the vessel i[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]s heading towards a minefield, is able to give warning and saves the ship. Vice-Admiral Makarov prepares to ambush the Japanese mine-laying vessels, and sinks them. Admiral Togo of the Imperial Japanese Navy becomes more cautious with the use of his mine-layers.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The 2[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]nd[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Battle of Yalu River between the Russian and Japanese army results in a humiliating defeat for the Russian side. The Japanese army had learned it's lessons from the previous Sino-Japanese War and so had treated the local Koreans well, paying Korean workers far above normal rates.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The Japanese are overconfident after their success at Yalu River, and despite the risks involved, they land troops south of Port Arthur. The Siege of Port Arthur continues for months, with mounting losses for the Imperial Japanese Army under General Nogi.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Battle of the Yellow Sea is fought on the 10[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]th[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] of August 1904, the Russian fleet at Port Arthur breaks the Japanese blockade, and forms up with the Russian navy ships from the Vladivostok squadron. Admiral Togo's flagship, the Mikasa, is heavily damaged.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Stepan Makarov promoted to Admiral. Despite the superiority of the Imperial Japanese Navy's ships, he gives the Japanese Admiral Togo a very difficult time and changes the course of the war. The Russian navy now has nearly triple the number of battleships that Japan has. Makarov began a sea campaign to keep reinforcements and supplies from reaching the Japanese army.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]With Japan unable to adequately supply their forces on the mainland, as the Russians have gained control of the sea, the Imperial Japanese Army suffered massive casualties with too little reinforcement and resupply. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The lack of reinforcements and field guns weakened the Japanese siege of Port Arthur. The siege fails as the Imperial Japanese Army are forced to retreat due to lack of supplies. Russian army followed this with a counter-attack that is initially unable to defeat the determined IJA defenders at the 3[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]rd[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Battle of Yalu River, but later forces the Japanese to retreat further.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]USA President Theodore Roosevelt, contacted the Japanese and Russian governments to offer mediation in the war. However, the fanatics in the Japanese military were unwilling to negotiate peace until they could regain a stronger position, dragging on the war with mounting losses, defeats, and only rare (but very costly) victories.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]With news of Russia sending the Baltic Fleet to the Pacific, the Japanese military feared that this was a prelude to invasion of the home islands of Japan. The Imperial Japanese Navy with what it had remaining, hurriedly organised and sent most of the IJN Fleet to counter the Russian Baltic Fleet at the Tsushima Straits. Admiral Makarov suspected that the IJN would do this as well, and the Imperial Japanese Navy's Combined Fleet engaged the Russian fleets in a confused battle. Japanese superior gunnery left most of the Russian battleships crippled, but many Japanese battleships were sunk as they were outnumbered multiple times over.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]By the end of the war, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Japan lost all of the Kurile Islands and Sakhalin Island to Russia, and was barely able at the end to claim a “victory” in the war in the peace negotiations as they'd kept their gains in Korea.[/FONT]


After enjoying far more success overall in the Russo-Japanese War, though not a clear victory, the Russian military commanders are even less prepared, and more overly confident.

(OTL the Battle of Tannenberg resulted in the almost complete destruction of the Russian Second Army and severely weakened the Russian First Army to such an extent that later battles destroyed the majority)

However, in TTL the Russians had won at the Battle of Mukden due to the Japanese army running low on ammunition and other supplies. Now a little butterfly came flapping from the victory at the Battle of Mukden, as the two Russian commanders, Samsonov of the Second Army and Rennenkampf of the First Army (unlike their enmity in OTL) actually get along and cooperate fairly well. They had no reason to get so upset with each other's behaviour in the previous war.

Would the result be a potential victory, milder defeat, or even worse for the Russian side?
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