Possible worse defeat at the Battle of Tannenberg? Or better?

This is related to another thread of mine
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=158432

[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]An observant crewman on the Russian battleship, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Petropavlovsk[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], spots that the vessel i[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]s heading towards a minefield, is able to give warning and saves the ship. Vice-Admiral Makarov prepares to ambush the Japanese mine-laying vessels, and sinks them. Admiral Togo of the Imperial Japanese Navy becomes more cautious with the use of his mine-layers.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The 2[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]nd[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Battle of Yalu River between the Russian and Japanese army results in a humiliating defeat for the Russian side. The Japanese army had learned it's lessons from the previous Sino-Japanese War and so had treated the local Koreans well, paying Korean workers far above normal rates.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The Japanese are overconfident after their success at Yalu River, and despite the risks involved, they land troops south of Port Arthur. The Siege of Port Arthur continues for months, with mounting losses for the Imperial Japanese Army under General Nogi.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Battle of the Yellow Sea is fought on the 10[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]th[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] of August 1904, the Russian fleet at Port Arthur breaks the Japanese blockade, and forms up with the Russian navy ships from the Vladivostok squadron. Admiral Togo's flagship, the Mikasa, is heavily damaged.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Stepan Makarov promoted to Admiral. Despite the superiority of the Imperial Japanese Navy's ships, he gives the Japanese Admiral Togo a very difficult time and changes the course of the war. The Russian navy now has nearly triple the number of battleships that Japan has. Makarov began a sea campaign to keep reinforcements and supplies from reaching the Japanese army.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]With Japan unable to adequately supply their forces on the mainland, as the Russians have gained control of the sea, the Imperial Japanese Army suffered massive casualties with too little reinforcement and resupply. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]The lack of reinforcements and field guns weakened the Japanese siege of Port Arthur. The siege fails as the Imperial Japanese Army are forced to retreat due to lack of supplies. Russian army followed this with a counter-attack that is initially unable to defeat the determined IJA defenders at the 3[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]rd[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Battle of Yalu River, but later forces the Japanese to retreat further.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]USA President Theodore Roosevelt, contacted the Japanese and Russian governments to offer mediation in the war. However, the fanatics in the Japanese military were unwilling to negotiate peace until they could regain a stronger position, dragging on the war with mounting losses, defeats, and only rare (but very costly) victories.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]With news of Russia sending the Baltic Fleet to the Pacific, the Japanese military feared that this was a prelude to invasion of the home islands of Japan. The Imperial Japanese Navy with what it had remaining, hurriedly organised and sent most of the IJN Fleet to counter the Russian Baltic Fleet at the Tsushima Straits. Admiral Makarov suspected that the IJN would do this as well, and the Imperial Japanese Navy's Combined Fleet engaged the Russian fleets in a confused battle. Japanese superior gunnery left most of the Russian battleships crippled, but many Japanese battleships were sunk as they were outnumbered multiple times over.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]By the end of the war, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Japan lost all of the Kurile Islands and Sakhalin Island to Russia, and was barely able at the end to claim a “victory” in the war in the peace negotiations as they'd kept their gains in Korea.[/FONT]


After enjoying far more success overall in the Russo-Japanese War, though not a clear victory, the Russian military commanders are even less prepared, and more overly confident.

(OTL the Battle of Tannenberg resulted in the almost complete destruction of the Russian Second Army and severely weakened the Russian First Army to such an extent that later battles destroyed the majority)

However, in TTL the Russians had won at the Battle of Mukden due to the Japanese army running low on ammunition and other supplies. Now a little butterfly came flapping from the victory at the Battle of Mukden, as the two Russian commanders, Samsonov of the Second Army and Rennenkampf of the First Army (unlike their enmity in OTL) actually get along and cooperate fairly well. They had no reason to get so upset with each other's behaviour in the previous war.

Would the result be a potential victory, milder defeat, or even worse for the Russian side?
 
This is related to another thread of mine
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=158432



After enjoying far more success overall in the Russo-Japanese War, though not a clear victory, the Russian military commanders are even less prepared, and more overly confident.

(OTL the Battle of Tannenberg resulted in the almost complete destruction of the Russian Second Army and severely weakened the Russian First Army to such an extent that later battles destroyed the majority)

However, in TTL the Russians had won at the Battle of Mukden due to the Japanese army running low on ammunition and other supplies. Now a little butterfly came flapping from the victory at the Battle of Mukden, as the two Russian commanders, Samsonov of the Second Army and Rennenkampf of the First Army (unlike their enmity in OTL) actually get along and cooperate fairly well. They had no reason to get so upset with each other's behaviour in the previous war.

Would the result be a potential victory, milder defeat, or even worse for the Russian side?

It won't change anything unless the process of Russian mobilization changes AND Jalinsky isn't in charge of the army group. The Russians, eager to aid France attacked much faster than they where ready for, so the troopers with 1st and 2nd armies lacked a lot of basic necessities, like their field kitchens and proper boots which led to them becomming exausted and beat up after days of hard marching on the rugged frontier... then you have Jalinsky who was a sociopath and a military ignoramous who ordered his armies to move forward, regardless of what was happening on their flanks... he would need to be replaced with someone who wasn't a squaderer of life, Brusilov would be best... then you could do much better in that battle
 
I thought it might have some changes. Hoffman, who was Prittwitz's deputy chief of operations, made his proposals in OTL on the basis that the Russian generals wouldn't cooperate well due to their animosity towards each other. The butterflies are in the German perception of these Generals and the Russian army as well, not just on the Russian side.
 
I thought it might have some changes. Hoffman, who was Prittwitz's deputy chief of operations, made his proposals in OTL on the basis that the Russian generals wouldn't cooperate well due to their animosity towards each other. The butterflies are in the German perception of these Generals and the Russian army as well, not just on the Russian side.

Their not cooperating or liking each other didn't change the fact that the terrain in front of the two armies was different, and that 2nd army would end up getting ahead of its neighbor... this falls on Jalinsky who as army group commander was responsible for coordination and overseeing the strategy behind the campaign and if in charge would recklessly order the 2nd army forward without waiting for 1st army to catch up or paying any attention to the flanks

German armies going to back to Frederick the great strived for encirclements... I doubt increasing their estimation of the Russian's capabilities would change their strategy very much
 
I foresee a few problems getting from 1905 to 1914

One major stepping stone on the road to war in 1914 was the Austrian annexation of Bosnia which they felt only able to do because of Russian weakness in the aftermath of defeat and revolution 1905+

Its not impossible to get to war without this stepping stone, but the route is going to be much variant, since without annexing Bosnia, Austria is not going to be having its heir to the throne driving around Sarajevo in June 1914

Without the annexation, the Young Turks may not overthrow Abdul Hamid, or at least not then. The Ottoman Empire may look less vulnerable without the combination of loss of face, and recent upheaval.

If there nevertheless are Balkan Wars, in a pattern likely to be somewhat different from OTL, then Russia is not going to be so paranoidly pro-Serbian, a position that was based on the combination of abandonment of the Eastern strategy and refocusing in the West, the feeling that they had let down the Serbs in 1908, and the knowledge that to fail to back the Serbs in 1914 would lead to such a perception of Russian weakness that they would become irrelevant in the Balkans

Without defeat and revolution in 1905, Russia's strategic calculations are going to be very different. That's not to say they won't want to be involved, but if the Eastern strategy is still in play, and Russia in China is successfully developing its joint economic ventures, whilst a strong fleet and army remain out East, then its not going to be so focused on the West

If perchance after a different Balkan conflict, a group of ultra-nationalist Serb terrorists DO kill the heir to the Austrian throne, then Russia is going to be far more likely to back Vienna's anti-terrorist line than it is Belgrade's pan-Slavic one

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Their not cooperating or liking each other didn't change the fact that the terrain in front of the two armies was different, and that 2nd army would end up getting ahead of its neighbor... this falls on Jalinsky who as army group commander was responsible for coordination and overseeing the strategy behind the campaign and if in charge would recklessly order the 2nd army forward without waiting for 1st army to catch up or paying any attention to the flanks

German armies going to back to Frederick the great strived for encirclements... I doubt increasing their estimation of the Russian's capabilities would change their strategy very much

Yes, but the Germans knowing the situation that those two Russian generals aren't hostile to each other have to take that into account. It does change their plans.

In OTL, due to Hoffman's assumption that the Russian armies would continue to operate separately because of these generals not cooperating, Hoffmann proposed moving almost all German forces not already in Konigberg's eastern defense line to the southwest, moving the I Corps by train to the left of Samsonov's line.

In TTL, Hoffman wouldn't be making that assumption. The Germans would be more cautious and wouldn't take the risk.
 
Yes, but the Germans knowing the situation that those two Russian generals aren't hostile to each other have to take that into account. It does change their plans.

In OTL, due to Hoffman's assumption that the Russian armies would continue to operate separately because of these generals not cooperating, Hoffmann proposed moving almost all German forces not already in Konigberg's eastern defense line to the southwest, moving the I Corps by train to the left of Samsonov's line.

In TTL, Hoffman wouldn't be making that assumption. The Germans would be more cautious and wouldn't take the risk.

Air recon would still show the 2nd army surging ahead of their neighbor, so even if their file dockets on the Russian army commanders didn't note a personal feud they would still see the 2nd army was isolated, and without protection for its flanks, and vulnerable to encirclement... and even if the Germans where more conservative about it... they could still mount their encirclement, and then use the troops comming from the west (two corps) to backstop either the troops at Alenstein (where breakthrough seemed immenent) or put them in front of Rennekempf to put meat behind the cavalry screen

the Russian generals fighting, and the signals in the clear are overblown... it was poor Russian strategy, poor mobilization, poor plannning and poor leadership on the part of Jalinsky that created Tannenberg, everything else was filler

Akin it to ww2, if Patton got too far ahead of the rest of the army and his flanks where in the air, and the 1st army was 10's of miles behind him... would you blame him and hodges not liking each other for him getting attacked in the flanks, or Bradely for not properly coordinating the movement of his forces to make sure their flanks where secured
 
I foresee a few problems getting from 1905 to 1914

One major stepping stone on the road to war in 1914 was the Austrian annexation of Bosnia which they felt only able to do because of Russian weakness in the aftermath of defeat and revolution 1905+

Its not impossible to get to war without this stepping stone, but the route is going to be much variant, since without annexing Bosnia, Austria is not going to be having its heir to the throne driving around Sarajevo in June 1914

Without the annexation, the Young Turks may not overthrow Abdul Hamid, or at least not then. The Ottoman Empire may look less vulnerable without the combination of loss of face, and recent upheaval.

If there nevertheless are Balkan Wars, in a pattern likely to be somewhat different from OTL, then Russia is not going to be so paranoidly pro-Serbian, a position that was based on the combination of abandonment of the Eastern strategy and refocusing in the West, the feeling that they had let down the Serbs in 1908, and the knowledge that to fail to back the Serbs in 1914 would lead to such a perception of Russian weakness that they would become irrelevant in the Balkans

Without defeat and revolution in 1905, Russia's strategic calculations are going to be very different. That's not to say they won't want to be involved, but if the Eastern strategy is still in play, and Russia in China is successfully developing its joint economic ventures, whilst a strong fleet and army remain out East, then its not going to be so focused on the West

If perchance after a different Balkan conflict, a group of ultra-nationalist Serb terrorists DO kill the heir to the Austrian throne, then Russia is going to be far more likely to back Vienna's anti-terrorist line than it is Belgrade's pan-Slavic one

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Very good points that I'll have to consider there.

The Austrian annexation of Bosnia would be certainly more chancy. It slipped my mind despite reading up about it again earlier today. Oops.
 
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