Possible Serb - Bulgarian war

What if a Serb Bulgarian war breaks out somewhere in early 1914, what are the chances Russia could back the Bulgars can this avoid a Russo Austrian conflic over Serbia.
 
Pretty sure Greece and Romania were committed to jump on Bulgaria if that happened, which is why the latter were slow to enter WW1. And Russia had already given up on Sofia, so they wouldn't help.
 
There was a zero chance of Russia backing Bulgaria at that stage. Russia was more interested in Bulgaria's neighbors (Romania, Greece, Serbia), and couldn't even improve its relations with Bulgaria without antagonizing them, so Russian support for Bulgaria would have been ASB. It is slightly more probable that they'd thrown their support behind Serbia and started the large scale European war several months earlier.
 
Chances are extremely low. From the Russian perspective, Serbia and Montenegro are more or less certain allies, as Austria-Hungary has shown zero ability to attract them or even establish the minimal friendly relations. Romania is also a point of interest and increasingly friendly. Bulgaria, on the other hand, is an uncertain ally at best. The people may have been mostly pro-Russian, but the government and especially the all-powerful Ferdinand I have strong anti-Russian leanings.

Russia wanted Bulgaria on its side, but not if it means ditching other allies in the Balkans.

The chances of Bulgaria attacking Serbia in 1914 are pretty low, too. They don't want to be ganged up on by Greece, Romania and possibly the Ottomans again; in fact, they'd prefer not to fight at all any time soon. (Bulgaria was even reluctant to join WWI, which gave it a much easier opportunity)
 

nbcman

Donor
The Bulgarians had decisively lost the Second Balkan War (1913) against the Serbs, Greeks, Romanians and Turks where they had to give up some of their gains from the First Balkan War (1912). Due to Bulgaria's actions in the lead up to the Second Balkan War, the Russians cancelled their alliance and the Russian Foreign Minister warned the Bulgarians "Do not expect anything from us, and forget the existence of any of our agreements from 1902 until present". So Russia's assistance is out due to Bulgaria's willful destruction of the Russian brokered Balkan League. If Bulgaria tried again in early 1914, they would lose again and would lose additional territories.
 
The reason why Russia by this point was solidly against Bulgaria, was it was in effect due to the complex internal political situation in Bulgaria. The decisive factor in this is Tsar Ferdinand. Dude was pretty much a megalomaniac, he wanted to re-capture all of Bulgaria's previous territories and he was hellbent on it, but only when he was convinced of the indestructibility of the Bulgarian military machine, which admittedly was pretty terrifying considering that he basically mobilized like 1/4th of Bulgaria's population in WW1, but this is before WW1 and we had just suffered a massive thrashing by our former allies of the Balkan Alliance. This comes with the combined effect of Ferdinand and by extension, Bulgaria, flip-flopping from one sphere to another. He was obviously quite close to the Germans and particularly his cousin in Austria, but he had no problems stabbing them in the back if a better offer came about.

So my answer is, it /could/ potentially happen. But you need a complex set of political games to be played by both sides. The good thing about this is that world politics were so complex at that time that its not inconceivable that Russia can quickly switch gears to supporting Bulgaria if Serbia fucks them over. But on the other hand that won't happen unless Austria and Serbia somehow become aligned, which won't happen unless Austria drops Bosnia.
 
Pretty much. If the Austrians back the Bulgarians and keep the rest of the Balkans off Ferdinand's back, Bulgaria could potentially do Austria's dirty work.

Unless Russia steps in on Serbia's side, which it likely would. Then, you have only a slightly modified WWI.
 
Unless Russia steps in on Serbia's side, which it likely would. Then, you have only a slightly modified WWI.

It would Change the strategic side insofar as Serbia must divide its Attention - that means A-H will likely follow Plan R and having one more army on he eastern Front instead of transferring it late from the Serbian Front.

Make that killing Serbia probably in 1914 and thus maybe swaying Italy to the CPs side.

That makes a CP win in 1915/1916 not unlikely (expect Romania and or Greece acting differently TTL too)
 
A Serb-Bulgarian War is unlikely. Both if the countries were still some heat fresh off the Balkan Wars which costs lots in money and people. And this is even with Serbia being supported by Russia and Greece and Bulgaria being supported by Austria-Hungary.

Far more likely was a Greco-Turkish War.
 
Unless Russia steps in on Serbia's side, which it likely would. Then, you have only a slightly modified WWI.

You mean WW1 plus Bulgaria on the CP side.


It would Change the strategic side insofar as Serbia must divide its Attention - that means A-H will likely follow Plan R and having one more army on he eastern Front instead of transferring it late from the Serbian Front.

Make that killing Serbia probably in 1914 and thus maybe swaying Italy to the CPs side.

That makes a CP win in 1915/1916 not unlikely (expect Romania and or Greece acting differently TTL too)

By a CP victory do you mean in WW1 or a limited Balkan war. So Serbia is defeated earlier leaving the Austrians free to concentrate against Russia ?.
 
Pretty much. If the Austrians back the Bulgarians and keep the rest of the Balkans off Ferdinand's back, Bulgaria could potentially do Austria's dirty work.

So in theory the war might be limited to Bulgaria Serbia - maybe an outside power might mediate between the two.


The ottoman alliance is a shame Austria and Germany might offer to turn a blind eye while the Bulgars take Constantinople under terms favourable to Russia, who in turn promise to hold back Serbia.
 

nbcman

Donor
So in theory the war might be limited to Bulgaria Serbia - maybe an outside power might mediate between the two.


The ottoman alliance is a shame Austria and Germany might offer to turn a blind eye while the Bulgars take Constantinople under terms favourable to Russia, who in turn promise to hold back Serbia.

Probably not for Constantinople. The Russians threatened to attack the Bulgarians if they attempted to occupy Constantinople during the First Balkan war. Russia was only interested if the Balkan League members pursued Russia's goals not their own goals.
 
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