Possible POD for a Korean Manchuria timeline

Good POD for a "Korean Manchuria" scenario

  • Balhae doesn't lose to the Khitans and unites with Silla (why would this happen?)

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Goguryeo & Silla unite and conquer the rest of Korea (again, why?)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yun Gwan lives longer, allowing him to integrate southern Manchuria into Goryeo (not Goguryeo)

    Votes: 15 71.4%
  • Some other POD (Explain)

    Votes: 4 19.0%

  • Total voters
    21
This is a premise for a timeline that has interested me for a while. I want to make a TL in which a unified Korean state controls Manchuria (at least into the modern era, ideally up to WWII), and the region is recognized as Korean (similarly to how today it is seen as normal that Manchuria is part of China). This means a historical precedent and a significant Korean population.

Korean kingdoms controlled large parts of Manchuria from 37 BCE to 926 AD (almost 1000 years). The Koreans lost this land when the Khitans, and since then never regained it. China didn't (consistently) control much land in Manchuria until the Ming dynasty. There was a short period in the early 1100s when the Korean general Yun Gwan occupied the former Manchurian territories of Goguryeo and built forts there, however he died soon after. Him not dying so soon is one possibility for a POD, but I'm not sure.

There is of course the problem of what happens after the Mongol invasion...

Is this a plausible POD? Any other suggestions? I'm neither Korean nor an expert on Korean history, so I need some help with this. This is my first post here, I know it's long.
 
Also, how would this affect history?
(No Qing china of course if Korea keeps Manchuria. Maybe the Shun dynasty replaces them...)
 
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Yah I think this is plausible just have them Hold the land and then expand outward along the cost and perhaps inner Manchuria and then become a loyal tributary of China that acts as a buffer
 
Japan joins the Sino-French War and sends troops to Korea during the Gapsin Coup to support the revolters. When peace is established, Korea is an independent Kingdom and annexes historically Korean portions of China.
 
Japan joins the Sino-French War and sends troops to Korea during the Gapsin Coup to support the revolters. When peace is established, Korea is an independent Kingdom and annexes historically Korean portions of China.

That's an interesting possibility. I researched these events a bit and it seems quite plausible since Japan promised to intervene. The Koreans would be unable to take the coastal portions of the greater Manchuria region, which the Russians had already taken, but I can see them retaking Goguryeo's former lands. The way I see it, Korea would become very closely aligned with Japan though. Not sure how that would turn out for them in the long run.

The problem that I see with this is that by 1885, Manchuria was already globally seen as Chinese, being the homeland of the Qing emperors and all.
 
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Have goryeo annex Manchu before They conquer China.

TBH, i feel like the Qing would be more likely to conquer Korea than the other way around, which could be a good POD itself, having the Qing take Korea before China giving the Shun more time to subdue Wu Sangui's rebellion or the ming to reestablish themselves, and maybe prevent a Qing invasion. This results in a Manchu Korea instead of a Manchu China....

(yes, I did just post 3 replies in a row)
 
TBH, i feel like the Qing would be more likely to conquer Korea than the other way around, which could be a good POD itself, having the Qing take Korea before China giving the Shun more time to subdue Wu Sangui's rebellion or the ming to reestablish themselves, and maybe prevent a Qing invasion. This results in a Manchu Korea instead of a Manchu China....

(yes, I did just post 3 replies in a row)
The Manchu Aishin Gioro become Kims.
 
The earlier you go the more you can get out of this POD. Korea could have potentially held south and central Manchuria and diversified it's culture to adapt to the varied environments. I imagine they would be in a position to invade China from time to time culminating in 1644 if they last that long out there. And if the butterflies are mild that could be one hell of a DPRK....
 
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-geum-dynasty.172296/

There was an old timeline on a Manchu Korea; since Koreans didn't have the demographic strength of the Chinese they were unable to fully assimilate the Manchu but the Manchus were definitely transformed by the encounter.

Considering the extent of Korean settlement in Manchuria during the late 1800s and early 1900s (to the point where they were a majority in several areas) I think you could start with a Manchu conquest POD and still end with a Korean-majority Manchuria.
 
The earlier you go the more you can get out of this POD. Korea could have potentially held south and central Manchuria and diversified it's culture to adapt to the varied environments. I imagine they would be in a position to invade China from time to time culminating in 1644 if they last that long out there. And if the butterflies are mild that could be one hell of a DPRK....

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-geum-dynasty.172296/

There was an old timeline on a Manchu Korea; since Koreans didn't have the demographic strength of the Chinese they were unable to fully assimilate the Manchu but the Manchus were definitely transformed by the encounter.

Considering the extent of Korean settlement in Manchuria during the late 1800s and early 1900s (to the point where they were a majority in several areas) I think you could start with a Manchu conquest POD and still end with a Korean-majority Manchuria.

I agree that a large Korean population could develop in Manchuria if the Qing conquered Korea, there's only one problem I see with that: The Qing's Casus Belli for conquering China were the "7 grievances", all of which resulted from the Jurchens (Manchus) being Ming vassals, and therefore stem from China's presence in southern Manchuria. In TTL, if the POD was earlier the Koreans would control the lands that would have been Chinese OTL. Otherwise, the Koreans would just be (as OTL) a secondary conquest for the Qing, meaning not only would Korea not have Manchuria, but it would (if the Qing stayed there) become a part of China. That's why I see an earlier POD as a better option. However, then the ancestral Qing lands would be part of Korea.
 
For those of you that voted for Balhae never losing to the Khitans, if I were to go with that, I can`t think of a reason for it to happen. Silla viewing the Khitans as a threat and "helping" defend Balhae, and then incorporating it is a possibility, but it's unlikely that they would win....
 
TBH, i feel like the Qing would be more likely to conquer Korea than the other way around, which could be a good POD itself, having the Qing take Korea before China giving the Shun more time to subdue Wu Sangui's rebellion or the ming to reestablish themselves, and maybe prevent a Qing invasion. This results in a Manchu Korea instead of a Manchu China....

(yes, I did just post 3 replies in a row)
Issue with that is the Manchu had no reason to take anything from the Joseon beyond tribute and war supplies. They were gearing up to batter the Ming and a conquest of the Korean peninsula, despite the ease of war, would've easily become a bloody quagmire due to guerilla warfare by the local population (as Japan experienced in the Imjin War just a couple decades prior to the first Manchu invasion of Korea, which the Jianzhou Jurchen could've easily gotten involved in themselves). The whole point of attacking the Joseon was two-fold: 1. to neutralise the southern border and 2. to gain military supplies and economic gains from looting that would enable further campaigns against the Ming. Annexing any bit of the Korean peninsula would mean the Manchu would be stuck with concerns over the south for, well, not a short length of time. Either it means an eternally hostile Joseon nation to the south (the Koreans eventually stopped trying to fight against the Manchu and settled for a subservient role, that would not be the case if they lost lands to them) or a vast population far larger than the Manchu population that think of their rulers as barbarians, are starving and don't have enough arable land left to feed everyone thanks to the devastation of the previous invasion, and have a history of resisting invasions even at enormous cost (It took 7 Mongol invasions for the Goryeo to completely bow to the Mongols). Not only does it fail to reliably remove the Korean threat, annexing the peninsula means pacifying and, worse, feeding a large, militant, and starving population, which in turn means sinking more resources that could be otherwise used to raid and attack the far richer lands of China. There's a reason why, even after steamrolling over the Joseon TWICE with hardly any resistance, the Manchu never bothered adjusting the border with the Joseon.

For those of you that voted for Balhae never losing to the Khitans, if I were to go with that, I can`t think of a reason for it to happen. Silla viewing the Khitans as a threat and "helping" defend Balhae, and then incorporating it is a possibility, but it's unlikely that they would win....
Yeah, Korean dynasties have a poor track record when it comes to fighting steppe nomads.
 
I`d say that as it stands, the Yung Gwan POD is the best. The Gapsin coup is interesting but maybe a little too late. It`s a great premise for a sperate TL. The only thing left to figure out is how the Koreans would get further than the lands shown on this map (a rough map of Asia after Yun Gwan`s hypothetical conquest of the Jurchens) other than a bit along the coast south of the Amur river and maybe Sakhalin:

Korean Manchuria temp.jpg
 
Assuming I go with the Yun Gwan POD, how would the Koreans incorporate northern/central Manchuria. I can see them taking southern Manchuria and OTL Primorsky Krai & southern Khabarovsk, but I can't figure out how to get the Koreans to take the interior. Perhaps they would take it in the modern era, but there would be severe competition with Russia. If it happened earlier, it would be under Sejong the great

The way I see this timeline going (roughly) is:
  • Yun Gwan subdues the Jurchens with his new cavalry force
  • The nine fortresses in the north are completed
  • King Yejong does not order Yun Gwan to return to Korea, Gwan remains a general (OTL he returned home, was discharged from his post due to his enemies' influence in the royal court, returned to his hometown and died a year later (possibly poisoned)
  • Yun Gwan maintains control of Korea's now heavily fortified northern holdings (which were essentially given back to the Jurchens OTL)
  • A treaty is signed with the Liao Khitans, giving Goryeo all Liao lands east of the Korean-occupied lands (since the eastern lands were now connected to the Khitan homeland by a tiny strip of land and were essentially uncontrollable).
  • The new lands are organized as Liaodong province and the Puyŏ territory
  • The Koreans can now effectively trade with the Song again, which was the main goal of the expedition. Korea becomes a bit wealthier
  • Much of Gwan's army settles down in the new lands. Being largely empty, many Korean settlers are given cheap farmland in the area in an attempt to stabilize Korean control in the area
  • I feel like the Khitans would try to conquer some other area in order to make up for the loss of Manchuria... or maybe they'd just collapse.
  • After the fall of the Liao, the Jin never take their place, since they (a Jurchen group) are now ruled by Korea. Some other group may conquer the Liao, as they were weakening at this time. Perhaps the Tanguts or the Qocho Uyghurs
  • If conquered by the Tanguts, the Khitans flee east to establish the Kara Khitai Khanate/eastern Liao dynasty like OTL. Otherwise, the Khitan state ceases to exist. Overall, no big butterfly, they get conquered by Genghis Khan soon
  • The Koreans expand along the east coast in OTL Primorsky Krai
  • The Mongols Invade Korea. While it would be hard for them to subdue Korea, but the Mongols defeated more powerful foes. Korea would likely be conquered by Kublai Khan and would lose some of its northern lands
  • As the Yuan dynasty begins to collapse, the Red Turban army marches north, however, the Koreans also revolt, retaking the majority of their pre-mongol lands and defeating the Red Turban army by the time it arrives. (not sure if they'd keep Liaodong)
  • The ming, without the option of expansion into Manchuria might conquer lands in the Tarim Basin instead
  • Korea remains a vassal of the Ming. Expanding northeast and trading with China and Japan. This would be a relatively prosperous era for Korea.
  • Sejong the great would likely still vassalize a number of small islands in the Korea Strait. OTL he also shifted the border north, this would likely still happen in TTL, though to a greater extent.
  • Sejong would likely conquer inner Manchuria to take its mineral resources
  • The ming still collapse due to civil war in the mid 1600s.
  • I would assume that without Manchus, they are replaced by the Shun. OTL a small faction caught between two larger contenders notable for its use of more modern weaponry.
  • The Shun emperor Li Zicheng was a Khitan, but was heavily assimilated into Han culture and did not favour Tanguts in his government, thus he would be viewed as less foreign than the Manchus, and through intermarriage with Han nobles, may come to be seen as Chinese.
  • The Ming flee to the south both the Taiwanese and Longwu ming remnants would likely survive for some time.
  • The Koreans would likely remain Chinese Vassals, being loyal to the Shun who are more powerful, and actually border Korea.
  • The Chinese and Koreans would for a time be less isolated, however, aversion towards Christianity would likely cause Korea to allow only limited trade with Europe like japan did OTL. Not quite the Hermit Kingdom, but not exactly open to western influence other than technology
  • Japan fails to conquer Korea, but they might go to war with Russia….
  • to be continued as an actual TL i guess
Does this make sense? What needs to change? Butterfly effects that I missed?
 
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How much of Manchuria could Sejong the great realistically conquer during his reign assuming he starts with the lands shown below (dark red)?

I`m going to have to make much better maps than these temporary ones for a complete TL.

Korean Manchuria - joseon pre Sejong.jpg
 
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