Possible Manchukuo and Mengjiang independence?

[All Rounder]

There isn't a whole lot more to say but what would happen if Manchukuo was granted independence from Japan but wasn't integrated back into the P.R.C? I have always been curious about this puppet state that I feel is often overlooked when talking about vassals and countries under the thumb of another. Of course if this were to occur, we also have to look at the possibility of Mengjiang becoming independent as well, but that is very unlikely to occur, based on the location of the puppet and the fact that it was integrated back
into the R.O.C but was still autonomous. If you want my opinion on how the scenario could play out, then below is what may have to happen, other than that post what you think may happen to allow these two puppet states acquire independence and what could occur as a result of this happening:
- Japan is bombed in June or July than in August, which is when Manchukuo was invaded by the Soviets.
- Japan surrenders soon after the bombings occur, at least 4 days after the bombings and fifteen at most.
- Japan surrenders without the defeat of the Kwantung army, which helped solidify their defeat.

 

[All Rounder]

It would be very interesting to see a TL or story done on Manchukuo's survival or possibly Mengjiang surviving.

 

[XFE]

The problem is that at that point Manchuria had a vast Han majority. A Manchurian national identity would have to be constructed through endless streams of propaganda. Perhaps a more realistic scenario would be the somewhat overused Communist-China-in-exile scenario.

 

[zeppelinair]

I think Mengjiang has a higher possibility of survival actually, former-Manchukuo has the industrial/population base that the Chinese Communists definitely need; furthermore Manchukuo was essentially a Kwantung state. Mengjiang can maybe survive as a province(instead of Inner Mongolia covering the entire hinterlands south of Mongolia it's now divided into two).
For the hard pull on an independent Manchukuo, though:
1. Stalin dies early(early 1945) and someone else comes to power. Includes strong de-Stalinisation, resultant in Mao losing faith in the Soviet Union and earlier Sino-Soviet split.
2. Chiang grows very hostile with the US over power politics, partly Stilwell, mainly KMT corruption being unable to accommodate efficient battle-fighting.
3. Pre-August Storm, an agreement is made between Britain, US and the USSR(with strong protest from China) on some sort of percentage agreement, where Manchukuo is agreed to remain independent and co-defended by the US and USSR(Korea becomes fully US-occupied in this scenario).
3.1. Even if August Storm occurs, the US would be reluctant to look like treaty-breakers and try move away from what has their signature on it.
(Already as I write this I'm noticing several major flaws, but hey, it roughly works.)

 

[LeX]

You would need Manchuria to have been detached from China decades before 1932 for this to be even remotely possible.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

If your PoD is anytime after Pearl Harbor, Japan WILL be kicked off the mainland.

If your PoD involves Japan 'winning' WWII (probably by not entering, somehow), then why are they going to grant even nominal independence to Manchuokuo?

Unless your PoD is really early, the only way to get Japan to accept a reasonable position is by invading the Home Islands - or possibly sinking everything afloat with a Japanese flag down to fishing boats. In that kind of scenario, they'll, again, lose all their mainland possessions.

I think you'd have to go back to the very early 30s, stop 'policy by assassination' by making a violent examples of the first who tried it; and staying out of China 'proper'. Then they don't need oil from the DEI and won't feel forced to declare war against the West.

At that point, Manchuria IS (de facto), separated from China (I think), and without a Pacific War, they can probably keep control over Korea, Taiwan and Manchuria. For optics, some time in the 50's they grant nominal autonomy to Manchuria and Korea, but everything significant is still run from Tokyo.

Independence? Even nominal? I doubt it highly.

 

[All Rounder]

So, everyone is currently stuck on the "it is very unlikely to occur so I will explain it's occurrence to the best of my ability" side of the equation? No hate just assuming.

The Kwantung army is mainly why Japan surrendered, seeing their last major force gone cemented their defeat among the officials and even the Emperor. If Japan decided not to waste the time waiting for that invasion and instead made the deal with the powers far earlier in our time, it is could result in an independent Manchukuo, later will become Manchuria, and possibly Mengjiang, because it was still autonomous but technically apart of China when they reformed their government. I am beyond the fact of it even being able to get independent, in this time, lets say that, for certain reasons stated above, Manchukuo and Mengjiang get their independence and Stalin is fine with that.

I don't see Mengjiang surviving long after independence, maybe into the 60s but I doubt later. And as for the Communist government "requiring" Manchuria, there is always Mongolia or even some country in south east Asia that could be annexed through a casus belli. Manchukuo could be come communist, or it could be the only East Asian country to be sided with the U.S, but this will put it under immense pressure to change to communist and, if it does anyway, then it will probably just unify with the P.R.C and that's that. What I am interested in is how it could affect the Korean War.

 

[All Rounder]

The problem is that at that point Manchuria had a vast Han majority. A Manchurian national identity would have to be constructed through endless streams of propaganda. Perhaps a more realistic scenario would be the somewhat overused Communist-China-in-exile scenario.

That would be fine having that endless stream of propaganda, and HELL no I wouldn't have that scenario done!

 

[All Rounder]

If your PoD is anytime after Pearl Harbor, Japan WILL be kicked off the mainland.

If your PoD involves Japan 'winning' WWII (probably by not entering, somehow), then why are they going to grant even nominal independence to Manchuokuo?

Unless your PoD is really early, the only way to get Japan to accept a reasonable position is by invading the Home Islands - or possibly sinking everything afloat with a Japanese flag down to fishing boats. In that kind of scenario, they'll, again, lose all their mainland possessions.

I think you'd have to go back to the very early 30s, stop 'policy by assassination' by making a violent examples of the first who tried it; and staying out of China 'proper'. Then they don't need oil from the DEI and won't feel forced to declare war against the West.

At that point, Manchuria IS (de facto), separated from China (I think), and without a Pacific War, they can probably keep control over Korea, Taiwan and Manchuria. For optics, some time in the 50's they grant nominal autonomy to Manchuria and Korea, but everything significant is still run from Tokyo.

Independence? Even nominal? I doubt it highly.

Read my reasons in the original post to know what may have to happen for this to occur.

 

[All Rounder]

You would need Manchuria to have been detached from China decades before 1932 for this to be even remotely possible.

Clarify.

 

[All Rounder]

I think Mengjiang has a higher possibility of survival actually, former-Manchukuo has the industrial/population base that the Chinese Communists definitely need; furthermore Manchukuo was essentially a Kwantung state. Mengjiang can maybe survive as a province(instead of Inner Mongolia covering the entire hinterlands south of Mongolia it's now divided into two).
For the hard pull on an independent Manchukuo, though:
1. Stalin dies early(early 1945) and someone else comes to power. Includes strong de-Stalinisation, resultant in Mao losing faith in the Soviet Union and earlier Sino-Soviet split.
2. Chiang grows very hostile with the US over power politics, partly Stilwell, mainly KMT corruption being unable to accommodate efficient battle-fighting.
3. Pre-August Storm, an agreement is made between Britain, US and the USSR(with strong protest from China) on some sort of percentage agreement, where Manchukuo is agreed to remain independent and co-defended by the US and USSR(Korea becomes fully US-occupied in this scenario).
3.1. Even if August Storm occurs, the US would be reluctant to look like treaty-breakers and try move away from what has their signature on it.
(Already as I write this I'm noticing several major flaws, but hey, it roughly works.)

No it is fine, you at least explained the possible steps for independence, I agree partly with one and strongly with two, but three isn't that good because, to be very honest, it is highly unrealistic for that time period. Three point one is meh because of it's continuation of three, so it wouldn't work without it and also I think the U.S could find a loop hole in the deal IF it were actually made, which is unlikely to occur as the relations between the U.S.S.R and U.S were very poor beyond being allies with a common goal. But, you get a thumbs up from me on the steps and looking at Mengjiang as well.

 

[David T]

So, everyone is currently stuck on the "it is very unlikely to occur so I will explain it's occurrence to the best of my ability" side of the equation? No hate just assuming.

The Kwantung army is mainly why Japan surrendered, seeing their last major force gone cemented their defeat among the officials and even the Emperor. If Japan decided not to waste the time waiting for that invasion and instead made the deal with the powers far earlier in our time, it is could result in an independent Manchukuo, later will become Manchuria

No, it wouldn't--no matter when Japan surrendered. *All* the Allies were agreed that Manchuria was Chinese. Nobody would have taken an independent Manchuria seriously. Giving up Manchuria--*to China* not to an "independent" state--would have been a necessary condition of any Japanese surrender. (In particular, in the US, where pro-Chinese and anti-Japanese sentiment was strong, any peace terms that did not result in the return of Manchuria would be greeted with outrage.)

If people here are preoccupied by your failure to give a plausible POD, it is because you have not in fact given a plausible POD.

The only way I can see Manchuria de facto separated from the rest of China is if the Chinese Communists are victorious in Manchuria but are defeated in the rest of China. But even that will not result in an independent Manchuria any more than the GDR was an independent Prussia. The Chinese Communists will not call their state in Manchuria a "Manchurian" state; rather, it will be a *Chinese* state, the prototype that they expect all China will follow when it is "liberated" some day.

(BTW, "The Kwantung army is mainly why Japan surrendered" is t least debatable--some people do think that the two a-bombs had something to do with it. http://www.bu.edu/historic/hs/kort.html But that's another matter...)

 

[David T]

As for Mengjiang, the only (though unlikely) alternative to it being returned to China (which technically it was a part of anyway, even to the Japanese!) would be unification with Outer Mongolia under the scenario I gave at https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/unificaton-of-outer-and-inner-mongolia-1945.338036/

 

[All Rounder]

No, it wouldn't--no matter when Japan surrendered. *All* the Allies were agreed that Manchuria was Chinese. Nobody would have taken an independent Manchuria seriously. Giving up Manchuria--*to China* not to an "independent" state--would have been a necessary condition of any Japanese surrender. (In particular, in the US, where pro-Chinese and anti-Japanese sentiment was strong, any peace terms that did not result in the return of Manchuria would be greeted with outrage.)

If people here are preoccupied by your failure to give a plausible POD, it is because you have not in fact given a plausible POD.

The only way I can see Manchuria de facto separated from the rest of China is if the Chinese Communists are victorious in Manchuria but are defeated in the rest of China. But even that will not result in an independent Manchuria any more than the GDR was an independent Prussia. The Chinese Communists will not call their state in Manchuria a "Manchurian" state; rather, it will be a *Chinese* state, the prototype that they expect all China will follow when it is "liberated" some day.

(BTW, "The Kwantung army is mainly why Japan surrendered" is t least debatable--some people do think that the two a-bombs had something to do with it. http://www.bu.edu/historic/hs/kort.html But that's another matter...)

This didn't faze me in the slightest, I stand head strong with my opinion. If you, and possibly everyone else on here want to remain on if it could have occurred than go on to see how it could affect the Korean War that is fine by me.

 

[All Rounder]

As for Mengjiang, the only (though unlikely) alternative to it being returned to China (which technically it was a part of anyway, even to the Japanese!) would be unification with Outer Mongolia under the scenario I gave at https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/unificaton-of-outer-and-inner-mongolia-1945.338036/

That still isn't independent, but okay then.

 

[All Rounder]

If people here are preoccupied by your failure to give a plausible POD, it is because you have not in fact given a plausible POD.

Failure is such a term that should be left to the realm of hate. And I have given a possible POD in the form of steps that can be found in my original post.

 

[Alex1guy]

Japan avoiding the war is the only way I see it. Manchuria was seen as an intergral part of China, when Japan is defeated someone is going to restore it to whoever they see as the legitimate Chinese government. As mentioned the communist trope could work but like Korea both sides would call themselves China not Manchuria. Japan not entering the war somehow might save it, over the decades it's forced to develop an identity at the point of bayonets.

 

[All Rounder]

Japan avoiding the war is the only way I see it. Manchuria was seen as an intergral part of China, when Japan is defeated someone is going to restore it to whoever they see as the legitimate Chinese government. As mentioned the communist trope could work but like Korea both sides would call themselves China not Manchuria. Japan not entering the war somehow might save it, over the decades it's forced to develop an identity at the point of bayonets.

Good point.

 

[LeX]

Clarify.

Manchuria received tens of millions of immigrants from China's heartland between 1880 and 1940. It had become an integral part of China, even more so than Inner Mongolia, or Xinjiang, by 1930. Any functioning government in the rest of China is going to want to get it back. No foreign government is going to recognize Manchukuo as anything other than a Japanese excuse to occupy the place. Specifically, this means that a) the ROC is going to demand to have Manchuria back and b) the USA and Soviet Union are not going to stand in the way of these demands. It would not interest the USA to prop up a fake country created by a brutal occupier. The only conceivable purpose would be to weaken China in the long term, but the Americans would not be so blatant about that. A similar situation exists with the Soviet rationale for such an action—you could say that they might find it convenient to create a base for the CCP to hang out in, but that would simply turn the ROC into a bitter enemy which Stalin would not want.

The only way to have a Japanese-created Manchurian state have its independence be endorsed by the Allied victors is to make it more viable than the central Chinese government. Which means maintaining an independent ruling body in the region for decades, having this political tradition survive Japanese rule, and at the same time have alternate historical events undermine the feasibility of the central Chinese government.

 

[All Rounder]

Manchuria received tens of millions of immigrants from China's heartland between 1880 and 1940. It had become an integral part of China, even more so than Inner Mongolia, or Xinjiang, by 1930. Any functioning government in the rest of China is going to want to get it back. No foreign government is going to recognize Manchukuo as anything other than a Japanese excuse to occupy the place. Specifically, this means that a) the ROC is going to demand to have Manchuria back and b) the USA and Soviet Union are not going to stand in the way of these demands. It would not interest the USA to prop up a fake country created by a brutal occupier. The only conceivable purpose would be to weaken China in the long term, but the Americans would not be so blatant about that. A similar situation exists with the Soviet rationale for such an action—you could say that they might find it convenient to create a base for the CCP to hang out in, but that would simply turn the ROC into a bitter enemy which Stalin would not want.

The only way to have a Japanese-created Manchurian state have its independence be endorsed by the Allied victors is to make it more viable than the central Chinese government. Which means maintaining an independent ruling body in the region for decades, having this political tradition survive Japanese rule, and at the same time have alternate historical events undermine the feasibility of the central Chinese government.

Well, then it is possible that, if Manchukuo were given more autonomy then it could eventually be given independence, and I doubt the U.S would want a stronger communist China than it already could be.