Possible largest Navies in yr 2000?

With a POD after 1900 (as designated in the group) and minimal nukes (total tonnage dropped on cities no more than 10x OTL), which Powers can reasonably end up with the Largest Navy on the planet in the year 2000?

My nominees are the USA (duh), Germany, Japan (both possible from an Axis win TL), Britain (w/ empire), and France (From a TL where France wins an Alternate World War with both Britain and possibly Germany on the other side (France+AH+OE or France+AH+Russia)

I can't see it being Russia/USSR/(power ruled from Moscow), AH, Ottomans, Italy, or Chinese and having the Indians do it alone (as opposed to as part of a transformed British Empire) seems really unlikely.

Is a Caliphate a possibility (Enough oil to fuel a huge Navy)?

Any other ideas?
 
Have New Zealand join the Australian Dominion.
Have this enlarged Australia be entrusted with more and more Pacific British colonies and protectorates, and a the same time getting increasingly paranoid about German New Guinea, French New Caledonia, Dutch New Guinea, Japan and finally Indonesia and PRC. Let's say the manage to take a lot of stuff in the area in the two World Wars, maybe are given an occupation zone in Indonesia and insist keeping it and treat the Indonesian government as an Axis power (they had collaborated with Japanese after all) and go on with that even when the Dutch give in.
In the end, you have an imperialist greater Australasia with a very massive naval buildup. Not sure they could cope with the US, but perhaps their navy could be the second largest (that does not mean necessarily the second better).
 
The usual suspects

USA - As mentioned, the USA is almost certain unless it is defeated outright in a global war or falls apart. A large nation with far-flung sea trade will have a big navy even if it is isolationist.

British Empire/Commonwealth - An island nation with far-flung responsibilities. I can imagine a number of situations in which a revampled and federalized English-Speaking Commonwealth (possibly including India) rivals the USA (and might even absorb it - Britwank)

Japan - even today, Japan has the technological base and need for a large navy to protect its world-wide commercial interests and protect the home islands. Only the fairly unique situation surrounding how WW2 ended and the US-written constitution has probably inhibited Japan's return among the major naval powers.

A European federation/union - In the long run, I don't see any single western European nation having the largest navy. Even with an Axis victory in Europe, I don't see Germany keeping a massive fleet once its aims in Europe are satisfied and it is surrounded by client regimes...but a European Federation including a number of major European nations with far flung commerical and (possibly colonial) interests would have both a reason and ability to maintain a large navy.

The others

I'm not quite sure why you dismiss Russia/USSR and China so easily. Russia has, at various times, maintained a very large navy and China could. China, in particular, has global economic interests and a reason to have a big and capable navy. INdia, on the other hand is unlikely to ever seek the kind of global power that needs a huge navy.

Other possibilities, depending on what happens elsewhere in the world, are Indonesia - a large nation made up of islands - and "Australasia" - an enlarged Australia/NZ with possessions scattered across the Pacific. But to be realistic, there are ultimately few nations able to have "the biggest" navy other than the USA, barring some really radical PODs
 
I'm not quite sure why you dismiss Russia/USSR and China so easily. Russia has, at various times, maintained a very large navy and China could. China, in particular, has global economic interests and a reason to have a big and capable navy.

I dismiss them because of each other. In both cases, of the money spent on Armed Forces, a much higher percentage will be spent on the Army over the Navy. Even if China spent as much on its armed forces as the United States does (and exact numbers are relatively tough to come by), its Navy would probably still be less than half the size of the USA. The United States simply isn't worried about either of their neighbors invading them within the next 10 years, and both Russia and China are.

I think to push either into the great Naval powers, you need the other to have functionally fallen apart. For example, European Russia ends up split into three nations with capitals at St. Petersburg, Moscow and Volgagrad in 1917 and there are not one but two different weak buffer states between China and any of them, then maybe the Chinese can become a naval power...

Also, arguably, the *more* isolated the USA becomes, the more its spending tips toward its Navy, so even a heavily Isolationist USA is still among the World Naval powers, even if its Army is a joke.
 
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Have New Zealand join the Australian Dominion.
Have this enlarged Australia be entrusted with more and more Pacific British colonies and protectorates, and a the same time getting increasingly paranoid about German New Guinea, French New Caledonia, Dutch New Guinea, Japan and finally Indonesia and PRC. Let's say the manage to take a lot of stuff in the area in the two World Wars, maybe are given an occupation zone in Indonesia and insist keeping it and treat the Indonesian government as an Axis power (they had collaborated with Japanese after all) and go on with that even when the Dutch give in.
In the end, you have an imperialist greater Australasia with a very massive naval buildup. Not sure they could cope with the US, but perhaps their navy could be the second largest (that does not mean necessarily the second better).

While this is maybe possible, at that point, you would probably have more Indonesians (for example) who want independence from Australasia than there are Australians and while a Navy would be necessary to keep Australasia together, it would tend toward "short legs".
 
What about Brazil? It is a huge country with vast amounts of natural resources and a huge population, along with the fact that it could easily feel the need to defend itself from American imperialism. Besides, it is already on its way to becoming a superpower in reality.
 
Not sure of the possible POD, but maybe a Dutch-Indonesian union (add Suriname for fun) could hope for a place in top five.
 
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