I'll eat my hat if this time next year PR is a full fledged US state...and I don't even like wearing hats.
Possible Filipino Statehood?
- Thread starter Mr. BoJangles
- Start date
I'll eat my hat if this time next year PR is a full fledged US state...and I don't even like wearing hats.
katchen
Banned
Not by next year. But perhaps in two. What it will take is a Democratically controlled House and Senate. And a willingness on the part of Democrat Senate leadership to abolish or severely curtail filibusters and use that majority to the hilt in order to admit a number of territories and thus increase Democatic Senate and House strength even further. Think Guam and Virgin Islands and Washington DC getting congressional representation at the same time Puerto Rico doesl.
As for the Philippines, if Philippines had not voted for full independence in 1946, there was a brief window of opportunity around 1959, when Alaska and Hawaii were admitted to the Union. For that brief moment in time, the US was willing to admit Americans of a different race as long as they speak good English. That was when Americans might have become convinced that the Philippines and their bases were vital to US security.
As for the Philippines, if Philippines had not voted for full independence in 1946, there was a brief window of opportunity around 1959, when Alaska and Hawaii were admitted to the Union. For that brief moment in time, the US was willing to admit Americans of a different race as long as they speak good English. That was when Americans might have become convinced that the Philippines and their bases were vital to US security.
I wouldn't call it almost zero, but it is definitely a minority, with different segments of population being more favorable, and others less favorable.Blackfox5 said:
And thus why I set my POD back at end of the 19th, beginning of the 20th century.Tallest Skil said:
I see the granting of citizenship to Puerto Ricans via the Jones-Shafroth Act back in 1917, as being separate from the question of whether the United States grants citizenship to Filipinos. In the OTL the Filipino Naturalization Act of 1946 granted FilAms who were in the United States prior to 1943 U.S. Citizenship; therefore for it to occur in 1946 in my suggested ATL makes sense, especially as the reason for the creation of the Commonwealth of the Philippines differs substantially between the OTL and my suggest ATL.Tallest Ski said:
A large reason for the migration out of the Philippines is due to the economic environment in the OTL, which is partially due to the oligarchy control economic system who keeps that nation's wealth in the hands of a few well connected families, and keeps most people (even the well educated) scratching for an existence. For instance, in Olongapo, in many cases, if you or your relatives are not on the good side of the Gordon family, you're basically predestined not to reach higher than the middle middle class unless you leave their area of influence. Thus, in the OTL, due to lack of land reform and the United States choosing to work with the established oligarchies that remained from the end of the Spanish Philippines early on during the 20th century, it created the economic conditions that lead to the much complained about brain drain that the Philippines has today. The outcome of which is as economic and political power remain centered around a handful of families, any meaningful reform is either lip service or implemented slow enough for those oligarchy families to stay ahead of them to maintain some advantage.The Kiat said:
That is not to say that some migration, especially military service related migration wont occur. Furthermore, as the economy recovers from the lengthened insurgency period in my suggested ATL there will still likely be heavy recruiting efforts from Agricultural and Fishing sectors in Hawaii, West Coast CONUS, and Alaska as occurred in the OTL. This is due to attempting to find less costly labor on the recruiters side, and for better economic conditions than exists in the Philippines during the 1900s-1910s in my suggested ATL; as it would take time for the economy to begin to come to its own in my suggested ATL as pensionados would need to be educated, American businesses would need to be able to establish infrastructure to support their new business ventures, and fighting and insurgency would have to subside (which in my suggested ATL does not occur in the Southern Philippines until the beginning of the Great War).
That is one thing I didn't really consider. If the Commonwealth remained in the United States past 1946, the United States would expand its territorial waters governance in order to support her Citizens' economic usage of the surrounding seas, and would likely claim the maximum extent of EEZ when that begins in 1982 with the signing of UNCLOS (U.S. signatory, not ratified by Congress, still largely followed as customary international law). One upside from the American/Philippine POV in the ATL with the U.S. having a greater influence the West Philippine/South China Sea would likely be under a similar status in my suggested ATL as the Gulf of Mexico is in the OTL.Tallest Skil said:
Furthermore, another thing I haven't considered (as I was only looking at the possible timeline that would lead to Philippine Statehood) is the impact what an American Commonwealth of the Philippines would have on American foreign relations decisions in regard to the First Indochina War, Indonesian National Revolution, Malay Emergency, and other conflicts that occurred in Southeast Asia between 1946 to 1959.
Filipino Nationalism was not something as widespread among the vast majority of the population, but an idea mainly within the well to do who could afford to think beyond subsistence. Furthermore, it was not a unified fighting force. If you look at the early period of the First Republic, and the fighting against the Spanish prior to the Spanish-American War, there was a great deal of in fighting as to whom would lead the fight against the Spanish. Aguinaldo even ordered executions of his opponents who also sought independence. Moreover, Aguinaldo's First Republic did much by making its leadership centered around himself and those whom he trusted from Cavite and surrounding areas (Chavacanos) to make the idea of the First Republic less popular with people from other regions in the Philippines. In some cases he would appoint Chavacano or (less often) Tagalog military leaders to govern areas of the Philippines that they had no knowledge of or relationship to, and thus antagonizing local leaders and populations; and that's in the OTL. Thus the collapse of the First Republic was not only due to American actions on the battlefield, but also due to how Aguinaldo acted in attempting to establish his authority upon the rest of the Philippines, which to this day has strong regionalism tendencies in the OTL.Mitchell Hundred said:
In the ATL, the point of divergence is directly connected to how the United States attempts to win in the "Philippine Insurrection" more recently called the "Philippine-American War" (not the Filipino American Insurgency (which has a different connotation and I would request that the term not be used in the future)). If the United States sought to win by seeking support directly from the population rather than through controlling them via the preexisting oligarchy it would do several things that would tie Philippines Independence movement to the oligarchy. One, as the oligarchy would not be supported by the new American governance it would move them towards supporting the First Republic. Two, at the same time due to the Americans looking to directly appeal to the populace (if it is successful as my ATL suggests it is), it would significantly reduce the larger population's reliance on the oligarchy. Three, by sidestepping the oligarchy who support the OTL current economic environment, in my suggested ATL as the concerns of that oligarchy are less important in the minds of early American Military Governors and Governor-Generals, it allows for economic, political, land, and educational reforms that did not occur in the OTL. Therefore, Filipino Independence will be more closely tied to those who want to return to Oligarchy economic and political control, and less popular to the greater populace who benefit from their improved political and economic conditions under American governance. And with that oligarchy being tied directly to the Japanese occupation in my suggested ATL, what movement for independence remained died as a practical possibility at the end of World War II.
As for the Filipino demonetization, with the change of tactic at the point of departure such demonetization in my suggested ATL would not be as significant, and the other message of attempting to lift up the regular Filipino as done by the Thomasites and others would be greater emphasized than what occurred in the OTL, and embodied by the reforms carried out by the Insular Government.
As for Puerto Rico, as I said above I don't think the improvement of the Philippines would directly or significantly impact the course of events in Puerto Rico.
I don't see how OTL present day politics plays largely in an alternate time discussions.Katchen said:
So let's not have this discussion devolve into modern OTL political discussion regarding current American politics, or a cheer-leading page for one political party or another.
I do like hats, and I won't eat them. They cost too much to eat. How about I bake up a banana bread hat? They did vote in favor, but I'd really be surprised if anything goes though the territorial (I'm calling them a territory, no matter what anyone else things) government and DC that fast.
Well I live on Kunsan AB. But from Seoul to Busan there are actually a lot of Filipin@s here. More than I've met in California anyway.Anyways, surprised you saw a lot of Filipinos in Korea- which part of the country did you live in? must be a Filipino enclave...
Regardless, the best scenario I managed to develop is as follows:
The Philippine-American War ends on July 4, 1901 with the United States and the Philippine Republic coming to an agreement for the future of the islands. They would remain under minimal US occupation and protection until 1920, whereupon the US would leave and turn over control the the Philippine Republic. During that time, the US would improve infrastructure, education, and industry in the region to allow the Philippines a level of economic independence. The Philippines would enjoy special privileges to American arms for defense of the islands, as well as advisers for the purpose of training the Filipinos in the defense of their islands.
With the United States less committed to the Philippines, they are able to focus more intently on Pancho Villa. The US Army moves south to occupy Northern Mexico and discovers Pancho attempting to flee Mexico through the port of Veracruz. Under pressure from the POTUS, Venustiano Carranza has Villa arrested and extradited to the US for trail. Where he is convicted and sentenced to death. The US then continue to occupy Northern Mexico so as to dissuade additional revolutionary incursions into the US. However, the occupation of North Mexico convinces the government in Mexico (along with the rest of Central America to Panama), to declare war on the United States. As a result of this involvement in the war, it is prolonged until 1920. Filipinos, who at this time were serving in the US Army, are recalled to the US to fight in Mexico and defend Panama. Allied victory comes, with North Mexico under perpetual occupation by the US.
Philippine independence is delayed until 1925 as a result of The Great War. The US relinquishes the Filipino Garrison as well as the Filipino Defense Fleet to the Republic of the Philippines. The Philippines are doing well throughout the 1930s until the Great Depression hits. Supplies of food from the United States dwindle, causing widespread starvation in the islands. The Army and Navy are cut to save money and provide enough food for the population. But it isn't enough. As a result, the population falls, as does defense spending and training. The Philippine Navy is all but dismantled and the Army is reduced to occupying its own territory to help curb theft.
Japan invades in 1940, seeing as the US is no longer present in the Philippines at all, and then attacks US bases in Guam, Samoa, and Wake, as well as the attacks on the US Pacific Fleet in Hawaii. In addition to the 8 battleships, 8 cruisers, and 30 destroyers sunk in Pearl harbor, 3 of the Pacific Fleet's 4 carriers were also sunk: Lexington, Saratoga, Yorktown. The fourth, USS Enterprise was heavily damaged at sea yet managed to stay afloat long enough to return to Pearl Harbor. She became the only ship during the attack who would be repaired that would also survive the war.
After the US liberated the Philippines on July 4, 1945, many Filipino men were quickly drafted by the US into the Army and Marines. It was here that the Philippines began to see themselves as Americans as well as Filipinos. Before the first bomb was dropped, Filipino regiments in the US Marines launched a daring attack on Kagoshima and the surrounding area. Although not authorized by the US Marines, "...the attack and subsequent occupation of Kagoshima by the Filipino Regiments of the US Marines have demonstrated that all Americans; by the Native, Filipino, Black, or White, share the same dedication to service and strive for excellence above and beyond what is required of any man, to defend his home, and protect those he loves, from an enemy as ruthless as those in the Empire of Japan." Though they were all collectively reprimanded for their violation of orders, they were all awarded the Distinguished Service Cross. Within a week the first bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, and later a second on Nagasaki.
The actions of Filipinos in the war, coupled with their inability to defend against the Japanese invasion lead to referendum by the President, and supported by General MacArthur to determine the future of the Philippines. The overwhelming majority supported re-integration into the United States. The President of the Philippines met with then President Truman to discuss the future of the Philippines. Osmeña simply requested that the Philippines receive adequate representation in the Senate as he knew that it wouldn't be an issue in the House. The Annexation of the Philippines was delayed while the the rest of the states voted on an amendment to allow the Philippines entry into the union with 2 additional senators. California, Texas, New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio (along with some smaller states) did not accept these terms of annexation. however the rest of the States did and annexation was authorized. The Philippines did not become a state until 1950 however, due to legal troubles of both annexation and the amendment in the US Supreme Court. However all decisions were upheld and The Philippines was admitted as the 49th state to the United States. Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico followed between 1953 and 1955.
By 1960, Superior, Sonora, and Coyote (renamed Chihuahua) were also admitted to the Union. This brought the total of US states to 55.
So this assumes that the United States was defeated or held to a draw against the First Republic? Would the oligarchy families remain? Would land and economic reforms occur? If not the Philippines social and economic picture may appear closer to a Filipino ran non-Spanish Spanish Philippines up until a certain point in your OTL.
I don't see this occurring. The US in the OTL was not heavily engaged militarily in the Philippines outside of the Moro Rebellion, and even in the OTL, the period of the incursions didn't begin until 1916, so why would the US need so many Filipinos to serve? In the OTL, outside of the US Navy (who were relegated to the Steward rating until the 1950s (when Shop Keeper was accessible) and well into the early 1970s), Filipinos who served in the military were regulated to the Philippine Scouts. These regiments did not serve stateside.
Even if the US were to enter into conflict with Mexico and the Central American nations in your ATL, would it not have sufficient forces from the federalized National Guards and draftees rather then shipping forces all the way across the Pacific Ocean? Furthermore what butterflies would be caused due to the U.S. being so heavily engaged in this conflict? Would it enter the Great War on the side of the allies? Would it be able to send forces to the beleaguered Western Front? If Mexico and the Central American nations joined the Central Powers, as the conflict coincides with the Great War, what impact if any would those other Central Power nations have on the conflict in North America? With the US not being able to send forces to bolster the Western Front, what would that mean for France?
Would this conflict in your ATL cancel out the Banana Wars in Central America? What about its involvement in the Caribbean?
Why would the US be concerned about the Philippines if it was at that point an independent nation? With the US not being committed to the Philippines at the start of a Filipino-Japanese War, a part of an earlier than OTL Pacific War, why would the United States not bypass the Philippines as proposed by Nimitz in the OTL? If as in the OTL, the purpose of an invasion of the Philippines or Formosa was to cut off Southeast Asian raw material from the Philippines, the invaded Dutch East Indies, and British Malay, and without the US having significant ties to the Philippines (not having shed blood in its defense at the beginning of the Pacific war) why bother and not invade the smaller Formosa that allows the US and Allied Forces create the same significant barrier to the Japanese Empires' SLOCs?
There wouldn't be enough weight behind these new regiments, or access to their own independent amphibious abilities, for them to be able to begin an unauthorized Operation Olympic. Furthermore, it took the 4th Marine Division an almost an entire year from its Regiments being trained to the Division being activated, to it deploying and fighting; why would Filipinos recruited in July be able to launch an independent operation a month later?
Wait, so the Philippines would be overrepresented in the Senate and the House of Representatives? No states would accept it, thus not allowing for ratification of annexation by Congress. What, if any reason, would the other states benefit in admittance of an independent nation into the Union which would upon admission automatically be able to out vote them in both the Senate and the House?
A contrary result in the Insular Cases is very unlikely to lead to statehood. First of all, the US could in such a case simply choose to treat the Philippines as an "incorporated" territory like Hawaii--which did not get statehood for six more decades. Second, if the US does not like treating the Philippines as an "incorporated" territory (because of reluctance to give its inhabitants full constitutional rights and because of fear that this will *eventually* lead to statehood) it is far more likely that it will grant the islands nominal independence but with a US right to intervene as in the Platt Amendment with Cuba--in short, a de facto protectorate status. The Philippines were too populous and too likely to upset the balance of power in Congress and the Electoral College for statehood to be a likely option. It was hard enough to get non-white-majority places admitted to the Union even when they were small like Hawaii.
katchen
Banned
understandable why Filipinos would want US statehood
After the great disappointments and corruption that independence has given the Philippines, I can well understand many Filipinos wishing that their country was a US state. That and the fact that the Philippines are so close to China, but because of nuclear non-proliferation, are not allowed to have nuclear weapons to fend the Chinese off. And they do not have the economy for a truly first class army and navy despite having 100 million people, most of whom are taxpayers.
katchen
Banned
You won't have to eat your hat. This Congress will go nowhere with Puerto Rico statehood. TWO years from now, in time for the 2016 elections, Puerto Rico may well be a state, if the Democrats can pull off a miracle of organization and keep control of the Senate while taking control of the House. Puerto Rico (and the Virgin Islands and Guam and Washington DC and if the Dems really want to be high handed about it, Samoa and Northern Marianas) are reasonably safe Democratic seats. That's potentially 12 Senate seats that would make it next to impossible for the Republicans to retake the Senate, 10 new House seats and 22 electoral votes. Only the Northern Mariana Islands falls below the statutory threshold for statehood of 60,000 people and that may be the result of under-counted Filipino nationals in the last census who were brought in as cheap labour for factories. Given the hard fought nature of US "wave" elections, it might be prudent of the Democrats to go for any electoral advantage they can, including bringing in the people of otherwise non-voting territories lest they lose power in the next electoral cycle. After all, the Republicans will do the same thing if they ever get both Houses of Congress.
Tallest Skil
Banned
Nothing in the Pacific is becoming a state unless it’s combined as one, plus the countries of the former UN Trust Territory.
And WDC will never. Ever. At best they will receive voting rights within–and their population will count for–Maryland. Not a state. WDC being a state means any city, anywhere, becomes a “state”.
After all, the Republicans will do the same thing if they ever get both Houses of Congress.
Right; we all know the US has a history of annexing new land every time one party has both houses.
katchen
Banned
America's interests would be strategic. Americans would have to decide that China is dangerous and must be contained. And this would include a consensus within the 1% that controls much of this nation's assets that would sell that idea to the American People. In other words, a VERY strong strategic pivot toward Asia and a REFUSAL to allow growing Chinese naval strength to drive the US out of the Western Pacific. And a decision that Guam and the Marianas are not big enough nor far enough west for the US to stand it's ground there. And that this pivot was SO important that it was worth giving Filipinos 100 Congressmen and 14 Senators (yes, the Philippines would likely become 7 states) to protect this pivot and carve it in stone.
And if US policymakers made that kind of a decision to be THAT provocative against China, the US would probably also annex and grant statehood to Taiwan as the only ironclad guarantee it could extend the Formosan (Taiwanese) people that it will never permit China to take them over.
Are we up for that? I strongly doubt it!
Which is why Filipino statehood makes a better ATL than it does a future history.
katchen
Banned
white sugar not brown sugar
Anybody see GW Sugar on your supermarket shelves?
That's Great Western Sugar, from Colorado sugar beets. And sugar beets were the lobby across the West and Midwest that put the Teller Amendment through--and damn near derailed US annexation of Hawaii. James A Michener writes in his novel "Hawaii", which is very well researched , that the Hawaiian landowners had to come up with pineapple as an alternative crop to prove to the US Congress that they weren't just voting for more sugar producing territory to compete with US sugar producers--which were and still are a powerful trust and lobby.
So while the use of racial fears may have been an excuse at the time to keep Cuba out of the Union (and how and why Puerto Rico and the Philippines stayed under US control in the face of the sugar lobby, I'm not sure--probably a strategic compromise over US geopolitical strategy involving construction of a Panama Canal) the real reason was sugar and money.
And by the way, those racial fears were totally unfounded. The whites in Cuba, under Spanish rule, after independence and even through lack of representation in the Communist Party, after Castro took over, has always been quite capable of keeping African-Cubans out of any semblance of power. Cuba --and Puerto Rico--and probably even the Philippines--would have fit into the Jim Crow bloc in Congress just fine.
A bit of local history here. Few people who were not born and raised in Colorado would pick up on this and put two and two together. But Edward Teller, sponsor of the Teller Amendment, was one of the senators from Colorado. And Colorado, at this time was developing a huge sugar beet farming, but most importantly, refining industry.
Anybody see GW Sugar on your supermarket shelves?
That's Great Western Sugar, from Colorado sugar beets. And sugar beets were the lobby across the West and Midwest that put the Teller Amendment through--and damn near derailed US annexation of Hawaii. James A Michener writes in his novel "Hawaii", which is very well researched , that the Hawaiian landowners had to come up with pineapple as an alternative crop to prove to the US Congress that they weren't just voting for more sugar producing territory to compete with US sugar producers--which were and still are a powerful trust and lobby.
So while the use of racial fears may have been an excuse at the time to keep Cuba out of the Union (and how and why Puerto Rico and the Philippines stayed under US control in the face of the sugar lobby, I'm not sure--probably a strategic compromise over US geopolitical strategy involving construction of a Panama Canal) the real reason was sugar and money.
And by the way, those racial fears were totally unfounded. The whites in Cuba, under Spanish rule, after independence and even through lack of representation in the Communist Party, after Castro took over, has always been quite capable of keeping African-Cubans out of any semblance of power. Cuba --and Puerto Rico--and probably even the Philippines--would have fit into the Jim Crow bloc in Congress just fine.