Possible F-15 Customers

Pangur

Donor
Is there any potential for sales to states that are got getting F-35`s or indeed states that drop out of the f-35 programme (if any do so)
 
Is there any potential for sales to states that are got getting F-35`s or indeed states that drop out of the f-35 programme (if any do so)

Depends entirely on who drops out. Canada would certainly have to consider them, though I think the same sort of cost problems as prevented it last time around would come into play, compounded by the benefits of going for Super Hornets if we are willing to accept an aircraft of that age. The only other country I've really heard seriously talking about dumping it publicly is Norway, and I really wonder about the suitability of the F-15 for their operations. Beyond that, they have some pretty major political and industrial advantages in going for the Gripen or Eurofighter.
 

Pangur

Donor
The Aussies have purchased the Super Hornet as a stop gap due to delays in the F-35 program. Add that to your observations and the answer would ssem to suggest that the Super Hornet will be the most likely direction taken rather than the F-15
 

NothingNow

Banned
The Swiss wanted acceleration, time to altitude a first class interceptor. The F-15 was top of the line in all those categories.

The F-15 can use short fields (such as highways) as well as any modern fighter. It has a very high power to weight ratio which allows it to leap into the air with a very short run. When landing it can slow way down by using that big wing as an airbrake in high AoA but still have excellent over the nose visibility. Then pop the barn door speed brake to drop to the runway. If you want to stop really short use the hook to snag an approach end cable connected to some anchor chain. We did it regularly at Langly

Problem is, the F-15 is huge, and the Swiss infrastructure was based around the F-5, Mirage III and older Hawker jets. Which is why they're buying the Gripen E/F now, and bought the Hornet back in the 80's, as they wouldn't have to build completely new airbases for something like the F-15, since they'd have to massively expand at least some of the Aircraft caverns.
 
Problem is, the F-15 is huge, and the Swiss infrastructure was based around the F-5, Mirage III and older Hawker jets. Which is why they're buying the Gripen E/F now, and bought the Hornet back in the 80's, as they wouldn't have to build completely new airbases for something like the F-15, since they'd have to massively expand at least some of the Aircraft caverns.

The F-15 was being 'considered' back before the Hornet was selected. There was talk about a modernizing some of their infrastructure at the same time. I worked on F-15s at Langley back from 76-82 and we did lots of demos and lots of rides for people in various uniforms with a bunch of different accents. Reading sources like Aviation Week, International Defense Review, etc it was interesting to see what had been announced and what we saw with our own eyes
 
The Aussies have purchased the Super Hornet as a stop gap due to delays in the F-35 program. Add that to your observations and the answer would ssem to suggest that the Super Hornet will be the most likely direction taken rather than the F-15

That is true. I think the F-15 is out of production now and Boeing would much rather sell Hornets since the St Louis assembly line is still producing them.
 
you need to butterfly away the Panavia Tornado and Eurofighter Typhoon and the F111 and F18 need to be less capable or not exported ( e.g. if the Aussies has 'only' had F4s they would have been in the market for something to replace them in the 1980s / 90s)
 
Bring TSR2 into service in the late 1960s might kill off the MRCA. That means the UK, West Germany and Italy will need a new, capable multi role type to replace aircraft like the F4 (and the RAF's TSR2 fleet) sometime in the 1980s.
 
That is true. I think the F-15 is out of production now and Boeing would much rather sell Hornets since the St Louis assembly line is still producing them.

Apparently there's still an order for 84 for The Saudis which aren't due to begin delivery until 2015. I think the F-15 has stayed in production later than the aircraft supposed to replace it, the F-22, how many aircraft can claim that distinction? The only one I can think of is the Swordfish but that was in wartime conditions.
 
Bring TSR2 into service in the late 1960s might kill off the MRCA. That means the UK, West Germany and Italy will need a new, capable multi role type to replace aircraft like the F4 (and the RAF's TSR2 fleet) sometime in the 1980s.

but that doesn't remove the likelihood of Eurofighter type project does it? and arguably BAe with TSR2 is as strong in the field if not stronger than it was ...

You also run the risk that the sales of the F15 end up as TSR2 sales ...
 
Depends entirely on who drops out. Canada would certainly have to consider them, though I think the same sort of cost problems as prevented it last time around would come into play, compounded by the benefits of going for Super Hornets if we are willing to accept an aircraft of that age. The only other country I've really heard seriously talking about dumping it publicly is Norway, and I really wonder about the suitability of the F-15 for their operations. Beyond that, they have some pretty major political and industrial advantages in going for the Gripen or Eurofighter.

As far as I know Turkey has recently considered dropping out as has Norway. Canada also recently dropped out and started a new tender to replace the F/A-18. For Norway, they have a big coastline and often do long distance patrols over water, so the F-15SE is possible but the Eurofighter is more likely IMO. Turkey has a large F-16 fleet and the F-15SE would have the advantage of commonality with them, it could also replace their F-4 fleet for interception and strike duties. However the Turks are trying to make an indigenous gen5 fighter, which may or may not be a joint project with South Korea. As for Canada, their was a lot of controversy surrounding the F-35 purchase and corruption allegations came up, so Canada left the program and has started a new tender. The F-15SE has a good chance because it suits Canada's vast area and their payload requirements, but the Shornet and Eurocanards are competing and I've heard that they could go for the Typhoon just as easily.
 
The F-15SE has a good chance because it suits Canada's vast area and their payload requirements, but the Shornet and Eurocanards are competing and I've heard that they could go for the Typhoon just as easily.

My guess is that the 15 really doesn't have much chance between high cost than F-18s, and the easier conversion to Super Hornets. As for Eurocanards, I know there's a lot of TALK about the Typhoon, but it's really quite expensive and doesn't have the kind of legs other options do. If there was a North American market to break into we might get a great deal on them, but being a pretty self contained order I really don't see big discounts on Typhoons. The Gripen has been mentioned, but I can't imagine that happening, much too similar to the F-16 all around, if that's what we wanted might as well go American. Rafale seems about right, but I always wonder if there is some problem (maintenance maybe?) with the aircraft given that every attempt to export it seems to fall apart despite nominally excellent numbers all around. At the end of the day I tend to think that the real competition is F-35 vs Super Hornet with whatever Eurocanard DND takes a liking to as a third option (yes, other things will be in the study, but that's not at all the same thing as being a contender).
 
Bring TSR2 into service in the late 1960s might kill off the MRCA. That means the UK, West Germany and Italy will need a new, capable multi role type to replace aircraft like the F4 (and the RAF's TSR2 fleet) sometime in the 1980s.

Now you're talking! The TSR2 butterlies away the F111K, AFVG, UKVG, Jaguar GR1, Tornado, Buccaneer in the RAF and extended life of the Vulcan. By the late 80s, when the F15E started production, the first TSR2 would have been in service for almost 20 years and the RAF would be looking for a replacement to the tune of 200 aircraft, more if it's to replace 150+ Phantoms and Lightnings. Perhaps the F15E is co-developed with the RAF.
 
Perhaps the F15E is co-developed with the RAF.

That seems distinctly unlikely given what the program was. I can definitely see the RAF buying them (though IMO a second generation TSR-2 would be a distinct possibility), but it's development program was very similar to the F-22's in a lot of ways, and Congress just isn't likely to change it's mind about banning foreign sales or involvement before the aircraft even enters service.
 
Now you're talking! The TSR2 butterlies away the F111K, AFVG, UKVG, Jaguar GR1, Tornado, Buccaneer in the RAF and extended life of the Vulcan. By the late 80s, when the F15E started production, the first TSR2 would have been in service for almost 20 years and the RAF would be looking for a replacement to the tune of 200 aircraft, more if it's to replace 150+ Phantoms and Lightnings. Perhaps the F15E is co-developed with the RAF.

Britain did evaluate the F-15 but found the F-14 more suitable, being a two-seat interceptor from the ground up. You could have either Britain buy Iran's F-14s outright or have Canada buy them and order additional Tomcats to fulfill their requirement, bringing the unit price down enough to a point where Britain could afford them. Then maybe they can co develop the ASF-14 with the US for the RAF and FAA. QE's with Super Tomcats would be pretty cool.
 
Britain did evaluate the F-15 but found the F-14 more suitable, being a two-seat interceptor from the ground up. You could have either Britain buy Iran's F-14s outright or have Canada buy them and order additional Tomcats to fulfill their requirement, bringing the unit price down enough to a point where Britain could afford them. Then maybe they can co develop the ASF-14 with the US for the RAF and FAA. QE's with Super Tomcats would be pretty cool.

Certainly the F-14 would suit the RAF well but from what I've seen on here and on other forums its doubtful CVA-01 could have operated Tomcats given its relatively limited deck space, even if it had been redesigned to increase the flight deck it's still a tight fit. Had CVA-01 been built its likely that the Phantom and Buccaneer would have served into the early 1990's, as IOTL's RAF before being replaced by the Hornet.
 
Britain did evaluate the F-15 but found the F-14 more suitable, being a two-seat interceptor from the ground up. You could have either Britain buy Iran's F-14s outright or have Canada buy them and order additional Tomcats to fulfill their requirement, bringing the unit price down enough to a point where Britain could afford them. Then maybe they can co develop the ASF-14 with the US for the RAF and FAA. QE's with Super Tomcats would be pretty cool.

Shameless plug here, but I did just most of that with Canadian Power. There, Iran's Tomcats were bought by Canada (the Canadian Caper stayed down long enough for the Tomcats to be delivered), and Canada's aerospace industry continually upgraded them, with a CF-14B version swapping out the TF30 engines for Pratt and Whitney units, and a CF-14C version being pretty close to the Attack Super Tomcat 21 proposal, that being because Grumman sold the proposal's designs and data to Bombardier after the US chose to not go for it. The Tomcat in Canada in that TL serves the Air Command from 1981 to 2014, and when Canada gets their big carrier in the 90s, it enters service with the Canadian Navy in 1997 and remained there into the 2020s.

I also had a much more powerful RN in that world - the POD is Trudeau attempting to shut up his opposition by buying the RCN a flagship in 1972, and that flagship is the former HMS Eagle. Eagle's first operational deployment for Canada is to back up our peacekeepers on Cyprus in 1975-76 and it proves itself there, so much so that Britain keeps the Ark Royal around a bit longer. It's decommissioned in 1981, but the Falklands War proves a utility for full-sized aircraft carriers, and Ark Royal is returned to service and recommissioned in 1986. Ark Royal sees service in the Gulf War and when Britain is involved in a mess in South Africa in 1992-93, and a confident Britain orders two full-size, angled-deck, 65,000-ton aircraft carriers to replace it, the first commissioning in 2003, and that one, along with the Canadian, Australian, New Zealander, South African and Singaporean Navies and air forces (and a little help from the Americans) take on the Indian Navy and Air Force after the Indian Air Force shoots down a Canadian transport plane and attacks HMAS Australia in the Indian Ocean in the summer of 2008. In that world, I debated Britain buying the Tomcat - it wouldn't fit on the Ark Royal or Eagle, but their replacements were designed with it in mind - but went with the Eurofighter instead, and a naval variant of the Tornado which sees use on both the British and Canadian carriers.
 
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