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I’ve been wondering about possible Points of Divergence to keep the United Kingdom of the Netherlands in existence; stopping Belgium from declaring its independence in 1830. From my knowledge of the subject, William I was hated by most of the Southern Provinces for his heavy handed rule of the region. The promotion of Protestant interests in the almost entirely Catholic south and the repression of the French language caused huge divides between the King and his subjects, tying the Walloons and Flemish together in opposition to the North.

With the Revolution of 1830 in France causing Charles X to abdicate from the French throne, the idea of a popular movement checking the power of the aristocracy spread to the Francophone population of the Southern Netherlands. This helped spark the revolts that eventually led to Belgium’s creation.

The Prince of Oranje, Prince William (the eventual William II), was largely sympathetic to the Belgian revolution and tried to act as a peace broker several times.

If William I dies sometime before 1830, I believe it’s possible that William II would have been able to limit the effects of ‘Belgian Nationalism’. If a similar event to the Revolution of 1830 takes place in France, the effects on the Francophone Walloon population would still be felt but the Flemish may choose to side with the Dutch if the anti-Catholic policies end.

In OTL, William abdicated in 1840 and died in 1843 so it isn't likely that he’ll die of old age. Does anyone know of any ‘good deaths’ for him to suffer or events to take use of before 1830?

My eventual goal will be to take this PoD and write a TL examining some of the effects a stronger Kingdom of the Netherlands would have on Asia, specifically Japan.
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