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I am in the process of hashing out a college sports scenario. The Point of Divergence is a different wording to one of the articles in the fourth Kentucky constitution in 1890. Among other changes, (such as the survival of two state institutions of higher education that in real life went under) U.K. was not invited to join the Southern Conference at its formation and instead looked north to the Western Athletic Association (the predecessor to the Big Ten, taking Iowa's place) but Louisville was (and ultimately joined the SEC.)

I currently have two main branches of the timeline I'm having trouble with, both involving the mid-late 60s and 70s.

1. With the Kentucky branch, in this timeline, basketball power Kentucky casts the deciding vote for Notre Dame in the big Ten instead of Michigan State, forcing that school to remain in the Mid-American conference. This vote keeps Michigan State and Wayne State rivals, so Wayne state doesn't drop down to the Division III Presidents' Conference, and then to the Division II GLIC. Wayne State football blossoms to the point that Warrior Stadium grows to seat 55,000 people.

In 1967-8, fresh from a antional championship, Michigan State and Wayne State leave the Mid-American conference along with Wayne State, Ohio and Miami University, and invite Indiana State and Illinois State to form the Midwestern Conference. Six members are enough for the conference to be recognised by the NCAA, but the conference is looking to go to eight or better yet ten members. When they expand in 1971, where do they look? Do they look:

A. east of their footprint? Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Villanova and Temple, among others, are dying for a conference to take them in. Michigan State and Miami are genuine football powerhouses and the Wayne State of this timeline is no slouch either. Michigan State and Indiana State are also basketball powers too. Penn State in the Midwestern Conference means a premature beginning of the battle for the Land Grant Trophy.

B. within the Footprint? Illinois-Chicago is looking or any excuse to keep their football program(it folded in 1973), IUPUI is looking for any excuse to start one, and Cincinatti is looking for any excuse to get out of the far flung Missouri Valley Conference before it stops playing football (especially as it has such close members as Houston, Texas Tech, and Colorado State).

C. North and West of their footprint? Wisconsin-Millwaukee and Wisconsin-Green Bay are looking for excuses to keep football, Minnessota- Duluth has its own medical and law schools and is the state sea grant college, Minnesota-Crookston is the real home to Minnesota's land grant programs, and across the Mississippi, Northern Iowa and Nebraska-Omaha are just itching to move up, not to mention the Dakota flagships...

2. Louisville leaves the SEC in 1965 along with Tulane and Georgia Tech andmanages to take Vanderbilt with it. They decide to form a conference (Call it the Metro Southern), but they need at least four more schools. Which of these schools do they take in?

New Orleans?

Louisiana Tech?

Southern Miss?

South Alabama?

Florida State?

Miami?

South Carolina?

East Caroilina?

Virginia Tech?

One thing about this Midwestern Conference I've noticed:

Michigan State, Wayne State, Ohio, and Miami play Division 1 hockey. So do Pitt, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Minnesota-Duluth, and Nebraska-Omaha, and Illinois-Chicago and Cincinnati did as well during this time (60s-70s). Adding any two of those schools means that the Midwestern Conference can become the first NCAA Division I conference able to sponsor Division I hockey during the '70s. Unfortunately, the Big Ten will have only five hockey schools (Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Minnesota). Will the Big Ten Commissioners put pressure on Kentucky and Illinois to bring their Division II hockey programs to Division I? Will they consider holding their nose and inviting North Dakota in as a hockey associate? Will they simply pointedly ignore the Midwestern Conference in hopes that they eventually break up?

And what happens if College Hockey has two all sports conferences? Does the Ivy League start sponsoring hockey as a conference? The Eastern Eight/Atlantic Ten? The Patriot League? The Big Sky?

The Big Test for the Midwestern Conference and the Metro Southern is the Great Shuffle of '90, in which in Real Life Penn State moved to the Big Ten, South Carolina and Arkansas moved to the SEC, Florida State moved to the ACC, and Miami moved to the Big East for all sports, Virginia Tech and Temple for Football and Notre Dame for everything but football. This set into motion cascade of effects that caused the implosion of the Southwest Conference, the split of the basketball Metro Conference into it and the Great Midwest and then it's remerger (with several former Sowthwest Conference and Sun Belt Conference members) to form the football playing Conference USA, and the delay of the start of Football at the Sunbelt Conference until the departure of South Florida, Central Florida, and Louisiana Tech.



If the same timeline changes happen in this timeline, these could have disasterous effects on their respective conferences, effectively gutting them of major credibility academically, athletically, or demographiclally. However, there are factors that make the exact turnover in the shuffle unlikely. Let's take a look at each individual school:



1: South Carolina: In this reality, they were dying for a football conference to take them in. They touted the fact that they combined Notre Dame's attendance tradition with Temple's athletic achievement tradition. In addition, they are a state flagship, something that makes the SEC take notice. In this history, though, they are members of the Metro South conference and have built a longstanding rivalry with Georgia Tech, who doesn't want to return to the SEC.



2: Georgia Tech: They are still in the Metro South. While they play good basketball, and are an academic fit with the ACC, their rivalry with South Carolina would suffer as the Gamecocks can't return to the ACC due to academics and lingering bad blood (Particularly with North Carolina State).



3: Florida State: Florida State is at this time an infamous party school (except for the Taxol Refinement Process Discovery) that has about much of a chance of getting into the ACC on academic merits as Central Florida or Florida Atlantic (and even less chance than South Florida). In this timeline they only got in because the ACC was desperate for more football schools than just Clemson and Georgia Tech. (Maryland and Virginia's rises weren't until later in the '90s). In this history they don't have Georgia Tech (yet) which makes them less attrective for Florida State. The SEC, though is at eight members at the moment, and might spare them a spot, and it looks like Florida State won't have major rivalries except possibly Miami.



4: Miami(Florida): The SEC won't want them because of their high academics and being a private school (they've already been burned by Tulane and Vandy), the ACC won't want them because they are a football school and too far out of the footprint (unless they can snag Georgia Tech or possibly Southern Polytechnic State University), and the Big East doesn't exist in a recognizable form in this timeline. They may be stuck in the Metro Southern, especially as the example of Notre Dame doesn't exist in this timeline.



5: Virginia Tech: The ACC will still not see them as ready for prime time. The Big East Football Analog has West Virginia as an analog, but is otherwise too rooted in the Northeast (It includes the likes of SUNYs Stony Brook and Buffalo, Boston University, UMass, Maine, and Southern Maine.



However, The SEC would probably love Va-Tech. Blacksburg is a closer drive to Knoxville than Athens, (At least as the crow flies) and has enough in common with Tennessee (Both are land grant colleges up in the hills with military school roots) to make a natural heated rivalry. (Or at least a more natural rivalry than LSU-Arkansas) The states are even connected by the Kingsport/Johnson City strand, meaning that Virginia won’t be too far out of the SEC footprint. The question is, would the folks at Blacksburg want to join the SEC, or are they too set on the ACC?



6: Penn State: In this timeline, Penn State anchors an all sports conference that includes West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, SUNYs Buffalo and Stony Brook, UMass, UConn, Boston College, Boston University, Maine, and Southern Maine, called the Big North that was founded in the mid ‘70s. The worst of the post-Dan Marino slump is over at Pitt and West Virginia is about to win its second national championship. It wouldn’t be quite as hard to lure away State College from the Big North to the Big Ten as a Tobacco Road school to the SEC, but it wouldn’t be easy, either, especially given that Joe Paterno is from New York City and would not want to be cut away from playing Rutgers and Stony Brook.



7: Michigan State: One hand, Michigan State’s claim to State Flagship status will more credible than Ohio’s, Miami(Ohio)’s, or Illinois State’s. It is after all a Land Grant college with both law and medical schools (and even a vet school) and will have the largest student body in the Midwestern Conference (Though Wayne State, Illinois-Chicago and Cincinnati will be breathing down MSU’s neck). It will have NCAA National Championships in Football and Basketball (The Indiana State-Michigan State rivalry in the late 70’s will be much more bitter, since Larry Bird will play all four years in Terre Haute, rather than spend his freshman year at IU) as well as swimming and diving, wrestling, and track and field.



On the other, it will vie with Indiana State and Cincinnati for the title of worst undergraduate academics. (Even Illinois State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Minnesota-Duluth, and Wayne State were more selective than Michigan State). Then there is the fact that MSU alumni might not want the school to join the Big Ten, much the same way that Notre Dame alumni in our reality don’t want that school to join the Big Ten. A timeline in which Michigan was successful in keeping MSU out of the Big Ten means that Michigan is that much more snobbish. This isn’t the stuff rivalries are made of, but rather genuine bad blood. (Like Idaho-Boise State, Maine-Southern Maine, Ole Miss-Southern Miss or ECU-UNC Chapel Hill.)



8: Miami(Oh): Despite the hated Jim Rhodes era, Miami will be more academically selective than Michigan or Northwestern. And membership in the Midwestern Conference and access to better non conference opponents will mean the school won’t be the “Cradle of Coaches;” they’ll stay and win National Championships in football, hockey, baseball, and track and field. On the other hand, the only graduate and professional programs of note are Business, Engineering and Education. There is no law school (though Miami Pre-Law majors have higher acceptance rates at law school than Ohio State’s, and better first time pass rates on stat bar exams) no medical school (though ditto), and no social work school. Even Notre Dame has a law school. Inviting Miami University would be like the SEC inviting Louisiana College, Stetson, or Union University of Tennessee, the ACC inviting Furman, VMI or the Citadel, or the Pac Ten inviting Chaminade or Evergreen State.



The Metro Southern Conference can’t afford our timeline’s Great Shuffle. That would destroy the conference. Cincinnati is in the Midwestern conference and has never built up a rivalry with Louisville. Memphis is in the Sun Belt (Gulf South for Football) and has never built up a rivalry with Louisville or Vandy. South Florida, UAB, Georgia State, UNC Charlotte and Virginia Commonwealth don’t play football, and there’s no guarantee the former Southwest Conference schools that went into Conference USA won’t go into the WAC, the Big West, or even (in the cases of Houston and TCU) the SEC!



The Midwestern Conference on paper has less to lose. If MSU or Miami is lost and/or the conference wants to expand to twelve, there are plenty of schools left (with IUPUI, Oakland {Football at the Pontiac Silverdome} Dayton, Toledo, Marshall, and Northern Iowa waiting in the wings {However Nebraska-Omaha and the Dakota schools are out for the time being, it would take much more effort to move up in the ‘90s than the late ‘60s and ‘70s.}. However, the loss of a charter member like Michigan State or Miami to the Big Ten would be a blow to the very premise of the onference: that its membership is collectively the academic and athletic peers of the Big Ten. If this happened, the conference would overnight go from being compared with the Big North and that era’s Big West to being compared with the MAC, Sun Belt, and even the Missouri Valley/Gateway and Mid Continent conferences!

A few interesting quirks of this timeline:

Big Winner (Football)
Miami University of Ohio:

As said before, Miami isn't just the "cradle of coaches" in this Timeline, they stay and win national championships.

Big Winner (Basketball)
Kentucky State:

In this timeline, instead of applying to Winston-Salem State in Basketball crowded North Carolina, Clarence "Big House" Gaines comes home to his alma mater, where over a 50 year career he lifts Kentucky State from NAIA to NCAA Division I, winning 1027 games and 12 national championships at literally all levels of play. (and the year after his retirement, Kentucky State jumps up to Division IA when the Sun Belt Conference adds football. {Kentucky State and Tennessee State become the first and second HBCUs in Division 1A})

Big Loser (Football)
Alabama

Paul "Bear" Bryant spends five more years at Kentucky, and parts on friendlier terms than in OTL. Instead of moving to Texas A&M, though (due to different circumstances) he goes to Notre Dame, and the Bad Times of the Late Fifties there never happen. (Ara Parsegian stays at Indiana, pre-empting Branch McCracken) His coaching experience means that in the eyes of his Alma Mater, he is, ahem, "irreversably contaminated," and they don't want him back until the '70s, by which time it is too late, and in his mind, they can kiss his, ahem, donkey, and inhale his, ahem, rooster.

Without "The Bear" in Tuscaloosa and his winning ways, and a substantially altered coaching tree, Alabama's '20s and '30s football glory days are about as relevant today as those of Ole Miss, Holy Cross, or the Ivy League.

Big Looser (Basketball)
UCLA

John Wooden's sense of pride forces him to stay at Minnesota, since leaving the conference of Adolph Rupp can only happen with one's tail between one's leg. The L.A. metro area still produces the likes of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, but they don't all go to any one school. There is never anything like OTL's UCLA 12 year Wooden dynasty, even at Kentucky, Duke, Indiana, or Kansas.

Due to the subsequently altered coaching tree, Denny Crum ends up at Fresno State, but since Louisville is more of a football school earlier, he isn't missed as much.

Here is a Table of this Timeline's NCAA National Champions in Men's Basketball. See if you can spot a few behind the scenes changes.

Year Champion Runner-up Venue and city
1939 Kentucky 63 Oregon 43 Patten Gymnasium Evanston, Illinois
1940 Indiana 60 Kansas 42 Municipal Auditorium Kansas City, Missouri
1941 Wisconsin 39 Washington State 34 Municipal Auditorium Kansas City, Missouri (2)
1942 Stanford 99 Dartmouth 38 Municipal Auditorium Kansas City, Missouri (3)
1943 Wyoming 46 Georgetown 34 Madison Square Garden New York City, New York
1944 Utah 40 Dartmouth 40 Madison Square Garden New York City, New York (Championship called a tie after three overtimes)
1945 Oklahoma State 49 NYU 45 Madison Square Garden New York City, New York
1946 Oklahoma State 43 North Carolina 40 Madison Square Garden New York City, New York
1947 Holy Cross 58 Oklahoma 47 Madison Square Garden New York City, New York
1948 Kentucky 58 Baylor 42 Madison Square Garden New York City, New York
1949 Kentucky 46 Oklahoma State 36 Hec Edmundson Pavilion Seattle, Washington
1950 CUNY City College 71 Bradley 68 Madison Square Garden New York City, New York
1951 Kentucky 68 Kansas State 58 Williams Arena Minneapolis, Minnesota
1952 Kansas 80 St. John's 63 Hec Edmundson Pavilion Seattle, Washington
1953 Indiana 69 Kansas 68 Municipal Auditorium Kansas City, Missouri
1954 La Salle 92 Bradley 76 Municipal Auditorium Kansas City, Missouri (5)
1955 San Francisco 76 La Salle 73 Municipal Auditorium Kansas City, Missouri
1956 San Francisco 83 Iowa 71 Welsh-Ryan Arena Evanston, Illinois
1957 North Carolina 54 Kansas 53 Municipal Auditorium Kansas City, Missouri
1958 Kentucky 84 Seattle 72 Freedom Hall Louisville, Kentucky
1959 California 71 West Virginia 70 Freedom Hall Louisville, Kentucky
1960 Ohio State 75 California 55 Cow Palace San Francisco, California
1961 Cincinnati 70 Ohio State 65 Municipal Auditorium Kansas City, Missouri
1962 Kentucky 71 Cincinnati 59 Freedom Hall Louisville, Kentucky
1963 Loyola (Chicago) 72 Toledo 58 Freedom Hall Louisville, Kentucky
1964 Minnesota 98 Duke 83 Municipal Auditorium Kansas City, Missouri
1965 Bradley 91 Kentucky 80 Memorial Coliseum Portland, Oregon
1966 Kentucky 79 UTEP 66 Cole Field House College Park, Maryland
1967 Indiana 79 Dayton 64 Freedom Hall Louisville, Kentucky
1968 Michigan State 78 North Carolina 55 Los Angeles Memorial Sports Arena Los Angeles, California
1969 LSU 92 Purdue 72 Freedom Hall Louisville, Kentucky
1970 Kentucky 80 California 69 Cole Field House College Park, Maryland
1971 Minnesota-Duluth 78 Villanova 64 Astrodome Houston, Texas
1972 Minnesota 85 Minnesota-Duluth 76 Los Angeles Memorial Sports Arena Los Angeles, California
1973 Southern Kentucky 84 South Carolina 66 St. Louis Arena St. Louis, Missouri
1974 North Carolina State 76 Marquette 64 Greensboro Coliseum Greensboro, North Carolina
1975 Minnesota 92 Cincinatti 85 San Diego Sports Arena San Diego, California
1976 Indiana State 86 Michigan 68 Spectrum Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
1977 Michigan State 71 North Carolina 59 Omni Coliseum Atlanta, Georgia
1978 Kentucky 94 Duke 88 The Checkerdome St. Louis, Missouri (2)
1979 Indiana State 73 Kentucky 69 Jon M. Huntsman Center Salt Lake City, Utah
1980 Kentucky State 59 UCLA 54 Market Square Arena Indianapolis, Indiana
1981 Indiana 63 North Carolina 50 The Spectrum Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
1982 North Carolina 63 Georgetown 62 Louisiana Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana
1983 North Carolina State 54 Houston 52 University Arena Albuquerque, New Mexico
1984 Kentucky 84 Houston 75 The Kingdome Seattle, Washington
1985 Villanova 66 Kentucky 64 Rupp Arena Lexington, Kentucky
1986 Kentucky State 71 Duke 69 Reunion Arena Dallas, Texas
1987 Indiana 74 Syracuse 73 Louisiana Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana
1988 Alabama 83 Kansas 79 Kemper Arena Kansas City, Missouri
1989 Michigan 80 Seton Hall 79 The Kingdome Seattle, Washington
1990 UNLV 103 Duke 73 McNichols Sports Arena Denver, Colorado
1991 Duke 72 Kansas 65 Hoosier Dome Indianapolis, Indiana
1992 LSU 71 Wayne State 59 Metrodome Minneapolis, Minnesota
1993 Wayne State 77 North Carolina 70 Louisiana Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana
1994 Kentucky State 76 Duke 72 Charlotte Coliseum Charlotte, North Carolina
1995 UCLA 89 Arkansas 78 The Kingdome Seattle, Washington
1996 Kentucky 76 Syracuse 67 Continental Airlines Arena East Rutherford, New Jersey
1997 Arizona 84 Kentucky 79 RCA Dome Indianapolis, Indiana (3)
1998 Kentucky 78 Utah 69 Alamodome San Antonio, Texas
1999 Connecticut 77 Duke 74 Tropicana Field St. Petersburg, Florida
2000 Michigan State 89 Florida 76 RCA Dome Indianapolis, Indiana
2001 Duke 82 Arizona 72 Metrodome Minneapolis, Minnesota (3)
2002 Indiana 78 Georgia State 64 Georgia Dome Atlanta, Georgia
2003 Syracuse 81 Kansas 78 Louisiana Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana
2004 Connecticut 82 Georgia Tech 73 Alamodome San Antonio, Texas
2005 North Carolina 75 Illinois 70 Edward Jones Dome St. Louis, Missouri
2006 Florida 73 Illinois 57 RCA Dome Indianapolis, Indiana
2007 Florida 84 Indiana State 75 Georgia Dome Atlanta, Georgia

Any reactions from anyone out there?
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