Possibility of Lafayette Winning out?

Prior to the escape attempt of the Royal family, Lafayette had considerable influence within Revolutionary France and Paris. His moderates held a considerable part of National Constituent Assembly, and the King's compliance in the matters of the assembly had earned his cause for a Constitutional monarchy a bit more credence. Furthermore, he controlled the National Guard and was at the time an important and popular statesman within France.

All that changed with the Flight to Vardennes. The King's opinion was severely damaged in the eyes of the people and from that Lafayette's cause. It had come at a severely bad time when Lafayette had been hoping to increase the push for a Constitutional Monarchy and afterwards the moderates were severely damaged. Afterwards they went into their death spiral, with Lafayette losing legitimacy and eventually surrendering himself to the Austrians.

Could it be possible that, if the Flight to Vardennes, that Lafayette's dream could have eventually been possible? Could a constitutional monarchy for France been realized in the face of pressure from both the Girondists and the Jacobins, or did Lafayette put too much hope in the monarchy to not damage his cause through their actions? Could France have eventually established some a monarchy?
 
Possible, but gets harder and harder the longer you leave Louis XVI alive. He may be capable of tactical concessions when necessary, but Louis understands the constitutional monarchists the same way he understands the republicans and atheists - guilty of treason, and up for the traitor's reward when the opportunity presents itself.

Consider cacking L16 at an opportune moment and establishing a Regency for L17. At that point a constitutional monarchy becomes likelier, simply because even if Charles is formally Regent, he won't have the gravitas to oppose Lafayette as effectively, nor would his flight or opposition damage the concept of monarchy so severely if he were not in fact the monarch.
 
Possible, but gets harder and harder the longer you leave Louis XVI alive. He may be capable of tactical concessions when necessary, but Louis understands the constitutional monarchists the same way he understands the republicans and atheists - guilty of treason, and up for the traitor's reward when the opportunity presents itself.

Consider cacking L16 at an opportune moment and establishing a Regency for L17. At that point a constitutional monarchy becomes likelier, simply because even if Charles is formally Regent, he won't have the gravitas to oppose Lafayette as effectively, nor would his flight or opposition damage the concept of monarchy so severely if he were not in fact the monarch.

Interesting, though I feel that somehow the Queen will find some sort of opportunity to muck it up. I wonder about the legitimacy of L17 in the eyes of the people, considering the death of his father and the fact that his mother is basically universally hated in France.
 
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