Possibility of avoiding Yugoslavia's breakup?

[damande]

So, let me do a short collection of the ideas so far:

• More federalist-minded persons get into high ranks starting in the latw 50s
• This also brings about reforms, collectivization gets at least partly undone
• Maybe more free market reforms come, triggered by western loans, economic helps and co-ventures
• As Titos health declines during the 70s, he starts to build up a "crown prince". My idea of that person is, that he must be serb. A man studied in economics, but also well liked by the general public. His family suffered dzring ww2 by the ustaša, so that there can be no doubt about his strong opposition to any kind of fascism and chauvinist nationalism.

Looking forward to your thoughts and comments!

So I continue my gathering of ideas and hope for your ideas, criticism and thoughts:

• (Like above) some reforms starting in the 50s, more federalist minded persons in higher ranks etc
• Tito builds up Petar Stambolić (?) as successor.
• 1980: Tito dies, Stambolić takes over.
• 1986: The SANU Memorandum, which among other things makes accusations of an "genocide against the serb people", is published in an issue of the Večernje Novosti newspaper
• Stambolić and the circle around gim decide to take advantage of the memorandum to regain the initiative. They arrange a public broadcasted discussion with members of SANU about theur paper. Well prepared, the chosen members of the yugoslav government literally rip the memorandum to shreds. The whole nation sees the SANU members unable to explain what exactly they mean with "genocide". On the other hand, Stambolić's people are smart enough not to simply insult and destroy their opponents. Selwcted parts of the memorandum are accepted, promises are made and further discussion is encouraged. Stambolić himself coins the term of "angry bearded men", when he states, that everyone in yugoslavia should have the opportunity to make himself heard to improve things. But, so he continues, there is no need for "irrational rants done by some angry and tired bearded professors." (...or something like that! ). Several leading officials from SANU step down after this evening.
• Following the events around the memorandum plans are made to allow free political organisations within certain limits.

 

[Halagaz]

It's hard to imagine how Stambolic and/or his people could confront the SANU and "rip it to shreds". It would basically be random communist apparatchiks vs actual intellectuals, black belt intellectuals in many cases. If someone gets ripped to shreds, chances are it'll be the apparatchiks...
Note that the memorandum included an explicitly political component, a historical component, and an economic component. Hell, even the parts of it that were really just inflammatory nonsense (and there was a lot more in there than mere nonsense) would not be easy to attack and dissect.
Perhaps they could go for a generic anti-intellectualist angle, but that's not gonna fly at this time and in this context.

The unlikely SANU scenario aside, strengthening Stambolic could possibly be a good idea.

 

[damande]

I don't know, if that's in the range of possible situations... but maybe the thing is not, that the SANU-memorandum get's torn apart, but that just a whole different kind of memorandum will be released. Taking for granted, that the whole economic situation of the 80s Yugoslavia was in a mess and the political system in urgent need of reforms, maybe that is what would happen (if, like in this timeline, certain steps towards market economies, decentralization etc. have already been taken, and so the whole topic of nationalism is present, but not in the way it was in iOTL...) ?

 

[Tito Andronicus]

It's hard to imagine how Stambolic and/or his people could confront the SANU and "rip it to shreds". It would basically be random communist apparatchiks vs actual intellectuals, black belt intellectuals in many cases. If someone gets ripped to shreds, chances are it'll be the apparatchiks...
Note that the memorandum included an explicitly political component, a historical component, and an economic component. Hell, even the parts of it that were really just inflammatory nonsense (and there was a lot more in there than mere nonsense) would not be easy to attack and dissect.
Perhaps they could go for a generic anti-intellectualist angle, but that's not gonna fly at this time and in this context.

There were quite a lot of intellectuals who opposed the SANU memorandum - in Slovenia, for example, there were the authors of 'Contributions to the Slovenian National Programme', who were anti-Yugoslav but anti-Serbian as well. There's also the possibility that the reforms instituted by Tito and Stambolić might have improved the underlying Yugoslavist ideology, and got them some plausible intellectual support.

 

[Halagaz]

That's a possibility too. Though in that case, the Memorandum itself would hardly stay the same; it would change in all sorts of predictable and unpredictable ways, or - depending on the depth and nature of the reforms - be avoided altogether.

 

[Darko1]

Да ли је неко прочитао мемораду а шта није истина

 

[Damian0358]

Да ли је неко прочитао мемораду а шта није истина

Ја нисам, али могу да линкујем овде. / Ja nisam, ali mogu da linkujem ovde. / I haven't, but I can link it here.

A partial English translation here, i srpski original ovde.

 

[damande]

More and more I kinda like the idea of letting SANU write a different memorandum than iOTL. More Criticism about the economics, the structure of the state and the republics. Different reactions from government side and different reception of the memorandum.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

Maybe more free market reforms come,

Socialist Yugoslavia had a market economy with all its problems. Economic development was very uneven different parts of the country, with Slovenia and Croatia being the wealthiest republic and Macedonia as well as Kosovo coming in last. The unequally distributed industry fuelled (or created) nationalist conflicts, since the underdeveloped republics were envious of the developed ones for their industries, and the developed republics didn't want to spend money on helping the underdeveloped ones - especially because the industries artificially set up in the south were seldom succesful.

Unemployment rate was very high, due not only to the overall bad shape of the Yugoslav economy, but also to a special characteristic of Yugoslav workers' self-management: in Yugoslavia, the factories were officially property of the state, but actually managed by the workers, who elected the company manager and took all major decisions of the company themselves. This lead not only to economic problems (since the workers often hadn't the knowledge required for managing a company), but also to unemployment. The profits of the company were allocated to the different expenditures by the workers, who also detirmined their wages. Since every additional worker took up an additional share of the profits, workers only very reluctantly hired (or, in Yugoslav parlance, associated) new workers - because it would reduce their wages. Yugoslavia had thus to send many migrant workers abroad, mainly to Germany, since there wasn't enough work at home.

What finally broke Yugoslavia was its debt. The economic problems (and the government's attempts to solve them) lead to a very high level of debt and increasing financial problems in the 80s. To secure American credits, the Yugoslav government even agreed to give up workers' self-management in 1989 IIRC, even if this was Yugoslavia's "peculiar institution" and its main raison d'être. Yugoslavia was a socialist state held together by the communist party and the idea of a self-managed society. Without this, what's the point of holding Yugoslavia together?

 

[Changundramon]

Sarajevo's probably still not neutral enough - maybe a purpose-built new capital, Brasilia-style, somewhere near the borders of Croatia, Serbia, and Bosnia? Perhaps Brčko, or somewhere like that?

Whatever the choice is, it MUST not be Belgrade. Continuity with the royal YU is exactly what the Communists should avoid. Skopje is a solid choice as well. Another important thing would be to not create the disastrous project that was Serbo-Croatian language. Rather have the other republic languages be taught as ˝foreign˝ in conjunction with the mother language of a particular pupil.

 

[alaric]

The best part about monarchs is that they dont give any new ideas of power struggle(i.e people know where they belong-generally speaking).Any region with varied population hell bent on proving themselves different, will find long forgotten or new faults in other subgroups just to keep their flock together.In this situation an absolute monarch universally hated,feared or loved is always a better solution than being provided a possibility to grab power in elections.

 

[Damian0358]

Another important thing would be to not create the disastrous project that was Serbo-Croatian language. Rather have the other republic languages be taught as ˝foreign˝ in conjunction with the mother language of a particular pupil.

In all technicality, Serbo-Croatian had existed since 1850, following the Vienna Literary Agreement. During the times of the monarchy, by way of the constitution, the official language was "Serbo-Croato-Slovenian". A mouthful, sure, but it seemed as though keeping linguistical unity was a key factor in Yugoslavia's early stability, so much that after initially recognizing Serbian and Croatian as separate in 1944, in 1945 the Anti-Fascist Council of the People's Liberation of Yugoslavia reversed that recognition in favor of a united Serbo-Croatian language. Then in 1954, the Novi Sad Agreement was signed, leading to the standardization of Serbo-Croatian, though it had its criticisms, which would later loosely result in the Declaration on the Status and Name of the Croatian Literary Language in 1967, aiming towards conserving the independence of the Croatian language, coinciding with the Croatian Spring of the late 60s.

The goals of a unitarian language seemed noble, especially since it did bring easier communication among those speaking it. However, like all things in Yugoslavia, it was eventually brought down by growing nationalism. If we were to butterfly away the move towards Serbo-Croatian, then having AVNOJ keep their initial recognition from 1944 might be a good place to start. Since no one was bound to the Vienna Literary Agreement, then this Communist Yugoslavia might have a looser approach to the topic of language. I wouldn't doubt that it would take a similar approach to OTL, where there was no official state language, instead allowing the republics to assign their own. I'd also imagine that there would still be an unitarian language movement based on the ideals of brotherhood and unity, which may lead to an agreement that is much looser than OTL's Novi Sad Agreement. We could also go the extreme route and alter what happened with the Vienna Literary Agreement itself, but I feel as though butterflies would result in a slightly more different world, one lacking a Yugoslavia possibly.

 

[Alexander the Average]

The best part about monarchs is that they dont give any new ideas of power struggle(i.e people know where they belong-generally speaking).Any region with varied population hell bent on proving themselves different, will find long forgotten or new faults in other subgroups just to keep their flock together.In this situation an absolute monarch universally hated,feared or loved is always a better solution than being provided a possibility to grab power in elections.

Centuries of feudal warfare and power-struggles would suggest otherwise.

 

[General althist]

No Slobodan Milošević coming to power would be a first step.

 

[Darko1]

Capital Zagreb and Zagorje special area as a case of Washington DC