There can be little question of a independent Turkish state. It would be part of the Ottoman Empire. However, even that is unlikely as Russia insisted most strongly on Bulgaria controlling the cost. And not only them, for that matter. I believe that during the negotiations preceding the conference of Berlin in 1878 the initial plan was for this territory (along with the southern Bulgarian coast) to remain part of the Ottoman Empire, while Macedonia was to be joined with Eastern Rumelia. Austria-Hungary however insisted strongly on Macedonia not being joined to Bulgaria, so Bulgaria received the coast instead.
And anyway, the territory would certainly not be as big as the one on the map.
Yeah, Volga Bulgaria and Danube Bulgaria were two Bulgar states to begin with.
There is surprisingly little evidence for this theory and much to contradict it, but it has the weight of tradition behind it. Some modern historians have suggested that the Bulgars might have been Iranian.
In any case, the Bulgars had been assimilated long before the 19th century.
Weren't the Gagauz originally descended from Seljuk Turks who migrated into the Balkans and converted from Islam to Orthodox Christianity? They'd be like the Kerasem Tatars in Russia though, Tatars who converted from Islam to Orthodox Christianity. Also, a Gagauz state would theoretically be located in Tsarist Russia by 1878 world maps, not in Ottoman Turkey.
There are many theories about the Gagauz and their origin remains unclear. Considering that they often identified as Bulgarians and their similar culture suggests that they are likely be the descendants of Bulgarians who lost their language.
Anyways a Turkish state in OTL Bulgaria isn't going to happen. Expect them to be ethnically cleansed and deported out of their homeland.
This didn't happen in OTL.
There are many problems with this map, but there's no need to go into them here. The map is not fine enough to show local majorities. For example, the Turkish majority area certainly didn't extend that far west.
And the Ottoman Empire could retain the territory only if it retained all of Bulgaria.
No.
For instance, some 8-12% of modern Bulgarians are Muslim and only a very small portion of those identify themselves as Turkic. Though they're not all concentrated on the northern part and they live closer to the Turkish border.
That's not exactly true. Most Muslims in Bulgaria identify as Turks, even many who are not actually Turkish by ethnicity.
See the latest figures from 2001.
The Turks mainly in two regions, one in the northeast, and another in the southeast, though the latter is not adjacent to the Turkish border. Here's a
map.
The Muslim/Turkic Party used to be a
force to reckoned with in Bulgarian national elections. They never harbored, and still don't harbor any aspirations of autonomy or, God frobid, independence...
It still is influential, controlling local power in places where the Turks are the majority. That they are not currently part of the government is due to the ruling party having a majority.
And apart from some fringe elements there is no real desire for autonomy or independence. It would be impractical anyway, what with them split into two regions and not being next to Turkey.
On another note, as far as the Pomaks are concerned, what I know from personal contact with them, is that they identify themseleves as a Bulgarian-Slavic people...they've just been devout Sunnis ever since they first converted into the religion under the Ottomans.
They maintain the closest ties with their co-religionists north of the border, in Bulgaria, rather than with the Turks.
The modern Pomaks want mostly nothing to do with Turkey, and only play the "Turkey-card" in local politics whenever the Greek/Christian majority is giving them a hard time. Which used to be more than often unfortunately, but not anymore...the Pomaks are increasingly identifying themselves as Greek. That is especially true ever since Greece became a full fledged Euro-member and a signee to the Schengen Treaty, which allows for the unrestricted transport of people and goods between EU countries...
I'm not very knowledgeable about the Pomaks in Greece, but my impression was that many did identify as Turks. But perhaps this is not a very deep conviction. And it's quite surprising to me that Pomaks in Greece still think of themselves as Bulgarian in some sense, when one considers their long isolation and the effort Greece has undertaken to prevent this.
Regarding the Pomaks in Bulgaria, with which I'M more familiar, they're not very homogeneous. Most identify as Bulgarians and many are not especially religious, but many don't really have an higher identity than being Muslims. And some identify as Turks (for example the green municipality in western Bulgaria on the above map is Pomak)
Bottom line is, no sort of Turkic/Islamic state could have emerged as a successor to the OE, in the aftermath of the Balkan Wars, since one or all of the Christian allies would have gobbled it up in no time.
Well, there is Albania, but that was created under Italian and Austrian pressure. No Great power which would want this area to remain independent.