Portuguese secrecy in the age of exploration

It is well known that the portuguese were indeed the pioneers of true high seas sailing and global exploration. Not only that, but they seemed to handle information about discoveries very differently from other europeans.

Sadly, much of the classified documents about naval expeditions that the crown kept were destroyed by the fires in Lisbon, after the earthquake. That leaves historians to wonder how much Portugal actually knew and kept concealed, like whether the portuguese discovered Oceania before the dutch or not.

Let's say that in this ATL the portuguese are far beyond any other nation in naval exploration, even more they were in OTL. Let's say they are also deeply concerned about hiding their discoveries in order to have an advantage, but perhaps being much more successful than in OTL.

How could this have possibly been done? Portugal must not only be stable enough to start exploring much earlier, say by the beggining of the 15th century, but it also needs to develop the technologies and the funds required for the undertaking. Castille must also be destabilized enough to focus on internal affairs only , as I believe it would still be portugal's biggest rival, at least for the early colonial period.

Imagine an alternate colombus, one which discovering the new world, becomes a portuguese agent sent to sail for the spanish and deceive them by having they believe he found nothing west of the azores? Imagine the portuguese seizing the ships on their way back, killing the entire crew except for colombus, making the spanish give up on sailing the western seas?

How far could this have possibly gone? For how much time could the portuguese keep the americas, australia or any sea route hidden? How could this change colonial policies, treaties like tordesillas, and finally, Portugal's overall power and projection over the globe?
 

Lusitania

Donor
The biggest limiting factor for the Portuguese was the its limited size. Had the Portuguese been able to keep Galicia, and subsequently been able to unite with Leon. Then you have a country much more able to exploit its findings.

As for Columbus that might of pushed back the north America discovery for maybe decade or two. The Basque were already fishing off the Grand Banks.

As for limiting Castilian exploration. Taking Cadiz during reconquista and colonizing Canaries would of slowed them down too.
 
Portugal must not only be stable enough to start exploring much earlier, say by the beggining of the 15th century, but it also needs to develop the technologies and the funds required for the undertaking.

Well, Portugal did start exploring pretty much in the beggining of the 15th century. The conquest of Ceuta happaned in 1415 and Madeira and Azores were discovered in 1417 and 1427, respectively. That's already pretty early, in my opinion. I guess you could find a way to anticipate these events by a decade or two, but that I don't see making Portugal more stable as the right way to go. Portugal started exploring because it was overly populated, lacked resources and had its sovereignity threatened by larger European nations. If you remove these incentives by making Portugal more "stable", exploration won't start earlier, but later, a there would be less reasons for the Portuguese to be as fanatic about it as they were IOTL.

Castille must also be destabilized enough to focus on internal affairs only , as I believe it would still be portugal's biggest rival, at least for the early colonial period.

Or European affairs...

I'm not sure about this, but I think an earlier union with Aragon might do the trick, as it would drag Castille into some really messy European dynastic fights.

How far could this have possibly gone?

The problem is that once one or two of these secrets were leaked, the other European countries would never trust Portugal again and that would leave the country with far too many enemies.

For how much time could the portuguese keep the americas, australia or any sea route hidden?


For about as long as it takes for any other European country to get there. But, as I said, if they realise that Portugal was concealing these things, they'll be pissed.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Well, Portugal did start exploring pretty much in the beggining of the 15th century. The conquest of Ceuta happaned in 1415 and Madeira and Azores were discovered in 1417 and 1427, respectively. That's already pretty early, in my opinion. I guess you could find a way to anticipate these events by a decade or two, but that I don't see making Portugal more stable as the right way to go. Portugal started exploring because it was overly populated, lacked resources and had its sovereignity threatened by larger European nations. If you remove these incentives by making Portugal more "stable", exploration won't start earlier, but later, a there would be less reasons for the Portuguese to be as fanatic about it as they were

The problem is that once one or two of these secrets were leaked, the other European countries would never trust Portugal again and that would leave the country with far too many enemies.


For about as long as it takes for any other European country to get there. But, as I said, if they realise that Portugal was concealing these things, they'll be pissed.

When the Portuguese discovered both Azores and Madeira they did not advertise their existence to the world but kept the affair low key.

The Portuguese maritime routes to India were actually kept secret for several decades and the Dutch began challenging Portuguese trade in region after the information was stolen.

All this proves that you cannot keep information secret for ever, but like a patent today gives you monopoly on the sale of product for x amount of years till generic versions of your product can be copied and made so too can discovery give you an advantage.

The problem was not that the Portuguese did not keep the maritime routes to India, Africa or even Azores secret but that it lacked the resources to exploit all them by themselves.

This is reason I have advocated that had Portugal been country 3 times its size / population it could of reasonably been foreseeable that it could it staved off first Dutch then British competition better.

This does not mean it could still not of suffered strategic and political blunders. Even a larger Portugal could of overstretched.
 
The biggest limiting factor for the Portuguese was the its limited size. Had the Portuguese been able to keep Galicia, and subsequently been able to unite with Leon. Then you have a country much more able to exploit its findings.

As for Columbus that might of pushed back the north America discovery for maybe decade or two. The Basque were already fishing off the Grand Banks.

As for limiting Castilian exploration. Taking Cadiz during reconquista and colonizing Canaries would of slowed them down too.
Maybe a scenario where portugal and navarre were under the same rule might have helped.

Though more lands are always good, that is only going to help in the speed and effectiveness of the exploitation of the lands discovered, I guess.

Considering the portuguese are able to explore the americas unrivaled for a few decades, I assume the treaty of tordesillas is butterflied as a whole. How could the potuguese handle the colonies then?
 
Honestly, one of the smartest moves the Portuguese could have made, even if it is a bit of a double edged sword, is to become a refuge for Jews in Europe - huge fiscal and intellectual resources on their side, that'll certainly help, and they can make a useful "blame them" group for when colonies get upset.

But yeah, to dominate, Portugal needs more people, and grateful people. To that end, they need to literally open up the colonial doors to loads of smaller groups. Albanians, Greeks, Hussites, Christian Berbers, the lot - and with Portuguese as a lingua franca, Portuguese dominates.

So with fiscal resources from Jewish moneylenders, and grateful (and semi-disposable) colonists, Portugal could establish itself more quickly, and if it can control Tangiers (or even better, fight their own Granada war), then they have a serious position that whilst not as strong as Spain, has control over the Atlantic sea lanes with their ally in Britain. If they can pull the diplomatic coup of allying with France against Spain, then Portugal could pretty much exploit their secrets with abandon, simply using the profits of their trade to fortify Portuguese Iberia.

A Portuguese Gibraltar, Ceuta and Tangiers would be a heck of a position though. If they can support a fleet there, then Portugal Stronk.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Maybe a scenario where portugal and navarre were under the same rule might have helped.

Though more lands are always good, that is only going to help in the speed and effectiveness of the exploitation of the lands discovered, I guess.

Considering the portuguese are able to explore the americas unrivaled for a few decades, I assume the treaty of tordesillas is butterflied as a whole. How could the potuguese handle the colonies then?

In reading Portuguese history there were a few events that could of changed the makeup of the Iberian peninsula in Portugal's favour at Castile's expense.

1) the capture of Cidade Rodrigue by Infante Sanche during reign of Alfonso I would of given Portugal control of Galicia and increased Portugal border east a bit.

2) Portuguese win Leon war of succession and incorporate Leon into Portugal.

3) combined larger Portugal takes Andalusia in Reconquista including all of Atlantic coast.

With these changes Portugal could of been in position to capitalize on its discoveries. This coupled with earlier Castile /Aragon union could of occupied Spain in European affairs for while.
 
Honestly, one of the smartest moves the Portuguese could have made, even if it is a bit of a double edged sword, is to become a refuge for Jews in Europe - huge fiscal and intellectual resources on their side, that'll certainly help, and they can make a useful "blame them" group for when colonies get upset.

But yeah, to dominate, Portugal needs more people, and grateful people. To that end, they need to literally open up the colonial doors to loads of smaller groups. Albanians, Greeks, Hussites, Christian Berbers, the lot - and with Portuguese as a lingua franca, Portuguese dominates.

So with fiscal resources from Jewish moneylenders, and grateful (and semi-disposable) colonists, Portugal could establish itself more quickly, and if it can control Tangiers (or even better, fight their own Granada war), then they have a serious position that whilst not as strong as Spain, has control over the Atlantic sea lanes with their ally in Britain. If they can pull the diplomatic coup of allying with France against Spain, then Portugal could pretty much exploit their secrets with abandon, simply using the profits of their trade to fortify Portuguese Iberia.

A Portuguese Gibraltar, Ceuta and Tangiers would be a heck of a position though. If they can support a fleet there, then Portugal Stronk.
I always thought Portugal could have benefited immensely from the expulsion of jews in Spain. The question is how would the spanish react to Portugal's sheltering of those prosecuted by the inquisition, whether they are jews, protestants or moors. Would Portugal be able to defend itself if needed?

About those minorities, using them in colonization might be problematic, even if they are grateful. This diversity of ethnicities under portuguese rule could potentially require some kind of reforms in the government, as seen in the relative religious freedom instituted in the Commonwealth later on.

Also, this tolerance is unlikely to be ignored by the church. I can see Portugal being a less proeminent catholic kingdom, as it's influence in the vatican is prone to decline. Maybe this causes Portugal to reform it's church in some way, though I don't think there will be as much zeal as there was in northern Europe.

It won't be hard to consolidate power in north africa, especially if they adopt a tolerant position, while also offering colonial opportunities for those who convert. The portuguese might try and succeed to rule morocco indirectly via puppets, just as they tried to in OTL.

The alliance with the english is tricky. If the portuguese are already strong enough early on, they are less likely to seek an alliance. If they can better exploit their discoveries, and by consequence mantain their power status in the later colonial period, England will inevitably become a rival, like spain and france. A stronger Portugal makes long lasting alliances unlikely, as the kingdom will compete in an equal level for a longer time.
 
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