Portuguese Royal Family died in a storm on his return to Portugal in 1821

It is much discussed on what would happen if the Portuguese royal family did not come to Brazil or died at sea coming to Brazil, but, what if the Portuguese Royal Family died in a storm on his return to Portugal in 1821?

Remembering that in OTL, Peter I, did not return to Portugal, he stayed in Brazil as the king's representative.
 
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There are two possible results in my mind. Either Pedro takes the throne of Portugal and lets Brazil be independent in a personal union with Portugal, or he keeps things like they are and Brazil is forced to fight for it's independence.
 
The possibility is present, when news of the revolution in Portugal first reached Brazil, the King initially planned to send Dom Pedro to Portugal and have himself remain in Brazil, and he published a decree on 18 February 1821 whereby Dom Pedro, the Prince of Brazil would return to Portugal. The Cortes in Lisbon had already demanded the return of the sovereign on 26 January 1821, therefore on 7 March 1821 the King decided that he would indeed return to Portugal to promulgate a constitution. The royal family reluctantly left Rio de Janeiro on 24 April 1821, arriving in Lisbon on 3 July of the same year. With such a long voyage, the possibility of a storm or some other disaster could sink the ship.

According to the laws of succession, Pedro automatically becomes King Pedro IV of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves. If he refuses to leave Brazil, what might ensue is a sort of junta governing Portugal, with allegiance to the king in name only similar to what happened in the Spanish colonies in the Americas. France had intervened in Spain to restore absolutism in 1823, perhaps something of the sort could occur in Portugal.
 
According to the laws of succession, Pedro automatically becomes King Pedro IV of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves. If he refuses to leave Brazil, what might ensue is a sort of junta governing Portugal, with allegiance to the king in name only similar to what happened in the Spanish colonies in the Americas. France had intervened in Spain to restore absolutism in 1823, perhaps something of the sort could occur in Portugal.

Yeah, I'd imagine something like that. Pedro would stay in Brazil and a provisional Junta would be formed to rule Portugal in his absence. The kingdom would remain officially united, but, in practice, Portugal and Brazil would become two separate entities, as neither the king would submit to the Cortes neither the Cortes to the king. A few years later, D.Miguel would probably stage a coup with foreign support and restore absolutism. Then, if Pedro decides to march to Portugal with a Brazillian army we could see a sort of "reunification war" taking place.

This might be an interesting scenario to explore.
 
Yeah, I'd imagine something like that. Pedro would stay in Brazil and a provisional Junta would be formed to rule Portugal in his absence. The kingdom would remain officially united, but, in practice, Portugal and Brazil would become two separate entities, as neither the king would submit to the Cortes neither the Cortes to the king. A few years later, D.Miguel would probably stage a coup with foreign support and restore absolutism. Then, if Pedro decides to march to Portugal with a Brazillian army we could see a sort of "reunification war" taking place.

This might be an interesting scenario to explore.
D. Miguel is dead in this scenario
 
We'd likely see Portugal gaining Dom Pedro's second surviving child as monarch, whoever they may be in this tl. At least as long as everything stays the same in Portugal and nobody interferes over there by overthrowing the Brazillian Braganzas.
 
Well, exploiting a loophole - the Infante Sebastian was a member of the Spanish royal family rather than the Portuguese, so he would be the next legal claimant to the throne of Portugal. But, were he to die alongside everyone else, who would have the next best claim to the Portuguese crown should Pedro decide to remain in Brasil?

Also, as to the reluctancy of the Portuguese royal family's departure, the Queen, Carlota Joaquina, was not sad to leave Rio behind. She made a very public show of removing her shoes as soon as she boarded the ship, and shaking the Brasilian dust from them, in full view of those Rio de Janeirans gathered on the dockside.
 
Well, exploiting a loophole - the Infante Sebastian was a member of the Spanish royal family rather than the Portuguese, so he would be the next legal claimant to the throne of Portugal. But, were he to die alongside everyone else, who would have the next best claim to the Portuguese crown should Pedro decide to remain in Brasil?

OK, I tried to research this and, from what I've seen, it would be very hard to find a successor.

If I'm not mistaken, the storm would have killed all known descendents of both, John VI and Maria I. Out of all of king Joseph I's daughters (he had no sons) only Maria had children. If we go back to John V (Joseph's father), we don't get much luck either. We would at least have to go as far back as to Peter II if we were to find an heir to replace Pedro, and I'm not sure where that would take us...

I think that the Junta would eventually have to submit to Pedro, and that possibly means that they would have to accept Rio de Janeiro as the capital...
 
What would be the long term effects on Brazil in this scenario. What about slavery? Would Brazil modernize faster or slower?
 
I see no reason why infanta Maria Francisca should be excluded from succession in this scenario. Sure her husband infant Carlos would lead a revolt against his niece in Spain from 1830, but who could know this in 1821 ? King Ferdinand VII had a new wife and no reason to believe he would end up sonless. The succession agreement will contain a provision by which Spain and Portugal could not be united under the same king. Otherwise, there was no heir. You have to get back to infanta Catarina (1540-1614), whose heir general was Bernardino Fernández de Velasco (1783-1851), 14th Duke of Frias and at the time Ambassador of Spain in London. He was, by his title of Marquess of Frechilla, the heir to Duarte de Bragança, second son of infanta Catarina. All the descendants of Catarina's first son, Duke Teodosio of Bragança, are dead in this TL, save Peter in Brazil and Maria Francisca in Madrid. Choosing a very distantly-related Spanish aristocrat with no royal connection as a King is not the smartest move for the Portuguese elites...
 
There is no reason to choose another king, Pedro is still the first in the line of sucession, but now there is a good reason to the now king Pedro IV remain in Brazil, he is the last adult of the Bragança.
 
No, but British interference is likely. More likely than any French. Britain has a soft spot for Portugal, no way France intervenes as they do later in Spain. The UK will though if things get out of hand.

Only for the joke, Wellington will never left England for Portugal, even as its king.

All depends on the chosen king, but Britain may not have need to intervene in Portugal.
 
Yeah, Pedro will definilty remain king in this scenario and he won't be getting out of Brazil so soon. I wonder what sort of compromise he could try to reach with the Portuguese liberals....
 
In the interim, the death of the royal family would strengthen the position of Pedro IV, as he could use an increase in public sympathy to strengthen his position with regards to the Junta in Lisbon. He could use his position to insinuate that it was the intransigence of the Junta which led to the death of his parents and the rest of his family, hoping to gain sympathy against the Junta so that he could eventually push through his own version of a parliament.

The Portuguese liberals were largely representatives of the mercantile class of Lisbon and Porto, and wanted to revert Brazil's status to that of a colony whereby all of Brazil's foreign trade would pass through Lisbon. However, it is interesting to note that there were also Portuguese-born members of the pro-Brazilian party in the Cortes whom benefited as middlemen due to the new economic situation. Pedro IV seemed more resolute than his father, and he would have to take steps to declare the actions of the Provisional Government as illegitimate. He would have to somehow gain the loyalty of the army, and gain more support from the land-holding elite/nobles along with the Church. He might be able to do this by summoning the traditional Cortes consisting of Three Estates.

The British government informed the king that while it would defend Portugal (and its territories) from external threat, it would not do so with regards to internal revolutions. Pedro would need to secure the backing of Britain, probably leading to him increasing Britain's economic involvement in Portugal and its colonies, along with granting concessions to limit the slave trade (alienating landowners in Brazil). If Pedro is unsuccessful, can see a civil war scenario in Portugal, but even Britain was uneasy about the Liberal Revolution in Spain (though it opposed intervention). The Congress of Verona's resolution to intervene in Spain would probably extend to Portugal as well.
 
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